Former Labour Party vice presidential candidate, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, has warned that Nigeria could face a period of deep instability and even existential threats if the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) retains power beyond the 2027 general elections.
Speaking during an appearance on Inside Sources with Laolu Akande on Channels Television on Sunday, Baba-Ahmed painted contrasting scenarios for Nigeria’s future, arguing that the country’s trajectory over the next decade would largely depend on the outcome of the 2027 presidential election.
According to him, Nigeria is currently on a dangerous path and risks descending into serious political and social turmoil if the current administration led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu secures another term in office.
‘We are headed for chaos,’ Baba-Ahmed declared. ‘That’s a bullet answer to the way you presented your question at the end.’
The former senator outlined what he described as three possible outcomes for the country.
The first scenario, he said, would involve the APC being voted out of office but replaced by politicians drawn from the same political establishment that has dominated governance for decades.
In such a situation, he argued that Nigeria would likely experience little progress but avoid major crises.
‘The present APC government under Tinubu is successfully and peacefully voted out and it is replaced by the same cream of politicians. In that case, what you’re likely going to have is apparent stagnation. There’s no progress. There’s not going to be much crisis. We’ll continue to manage ourselves as we’ve been doing,’ he said.
Using a vivid analogy, Baba-Ahmed compared the country’s current state to a frog slowly being boiled.
‘Cooking slowly in the water that is warming up and heating up slowly. Maybe for the next 56 years, if you have the same, and especially if they are succeeded by their own cronies and their own people.’
His second scenario envisioned a dramatic political shift driven by a new generation of leaders capable of transforming the country.
According to him, Nigeria possesses the human and economic potential to become Africa’s dominant economic power within a decade if genuine leadership emerges.
‘If they are voted out and replaced by a new generation of desirable, much needed leaders. My words carefully, not politicians. Nigeria needs eight to 10 years to be the China of Africa,’ he stated.
‘And that can happen. But only if, and this is really, really like wishful thinking, but tell you what, dreams come true only if you walk towards it.’
Baba-Ahmed reserved his strongest comments for what he described as the third scenario – the continuation of APC rule beyond 2027.
He suggested that the consequences could be far-reaching and potentially threaten Nigeria’s unity as a nation-state.
‘Then answer number two is that if APC were to continue, if Tinubu were to continue beyond 2027, sometimes I wonder if I should discuss this even in a living room, not to talk of discussing it in public. I tend to see the end of Nigeria as a nation,’ he said.
The former vice-presidential candidate argued that the country’s current challenges are rooted in years of poor governance and unmet expectations dating back to 2015.
‘Nigeria hopelessly mismanaged since 2015 to date. Promises dashed unbelievably because if there was any time that Nigeria took the wrong turn, it was 2015, or if there was any time that Nigeria was disappointed, it was 2015,’ he said.
He criticized the administration of the late former President Muhammadu Buhari, describing it as a period that shattered the hopes of many Nigerians.
‘For a federal government under the so-called late Baba Buhari to be as corrupt as it were at that time, to be as incompetent and inept as it were then, Nigeria’s heart was broken in 2015 by that.’
Baba-Ahmed also questioned what he described as President Tinubu’s long-term political agenda.
‘How he came to power, how he schemed for power, looking beyond what is the specific agenda of post-2027 Alhaji Tinubu,’ he said.
‘I have argued before now that his post-2023 agenda was 2027 electoral victory. So if he wins 2027, what is next? Who is good enough, what is good enough to take over from him?’
The Labour Party chieftain pointed to Tinubu’s reputation as a powerful political strategist with influence across multiple levels of government.
‘This is a politician who has installed from councillor to president and removed at will. He can put a president, he can remove a president. He has made himself president, he has made himself president again. Who else is good enough?’
Baba-Ahmed further alleged that the current political environment has become increasingly characterized by intimidation and selective anti-corruption actions.
Referring to developments in northern Nigeria, he claimed that several prominent political figures in the North-West had either been detained or were under investigation by anti-corruption agencies.
‘Consider where they claim they got their votes from in the northwest. If you check now, nearly every state in the northwest has a major politician or a major son in detention or being chased by EFCC or ICPC,’ he said.
He suggested that such developments could deepen political distrust and fuel divisions within the country.
‘I’m telling you that in the next 50 to 60 years, nobody will trust him and his people again.’
According to Baba-Ahmed, a combination of poor governance, political exclusion and growing public frustration could create conditions that threaten national cohesion.
‘So because of all that fear, we have misgoverned, we have bullied, we have cheated. The only way out for us is just to close the shop down. Go on our own. Everybody goes on their own.’
While emphasizing that he was not advocating a new idea, he argued that history shows that political systems can collapse when leaders ignore warning signs.
‘I’m not saying anything new. Go on our own. Everybody goes on their own. I’m not saying anything new. I’m not kidding about it. The history of the world post-Second World War has shown that what you don’t imagine can easily happen.’