Ukraine is about to enter its fourth winter of war with Russia. The fleeting hopes for an American-brokered ceasefire and an end to the grinding conflict have faded as the days grow shorter, the nights grow colder and the shadows grow longer.
Since Vladimir Putin launched the invasion in February 2022, the war has seen seesaw battles and fluctuating morale. Russia, despite its superior numbers, has failed to secure a decisive victory, while Ukrainian defenders — despite their resolve and bravery — are reaching breaking point in sectors of the long and largely static frontline.
Ukraine’s resilience is tested daily by withering Russian air raids, some involving more than 450 lethal drones, aimed at destroying and degrading power-plant infrastructure and killing civilians. Kyiv remains a primary target, but countless cities across the country — which is roughly the size of the US state of Texas — face relentless strikes.
Ukraine has responded by hitting a key oil terminal in the Russian port of Novorossiysk, causing infrastructure damage and igniting a fire.
It is no cliché to say the trenches resemble the First World War, with two armies facing each other as artillery thuds and gunfire pierces the day. What is different, of course, is the scale of drone warfare wreaking widespread destruction. In October alone, Russia launched 268 ballistic missiles and 5,300 Iranian-made Shahed drones at Ukraine. Moscow has been targeting electric and gas facilities in eastern Ukraine near the disputed Donbas region, plunging millions into darkness.
“As civilians in Ukraine head into another winter, the increase in attacks on energy infrastructure and resulting power outages heightens risks for the population,” said Danielle Bell, head of the United Nations Monitoring Mission in Ukraine.
Civilian casualties from January to October 2025 were 27% higher than during the same period last year. “The number of casualties for the first ten months of 2025 (12,062) has already exceeded the total for all of 2024 (9,112),” the report said. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion, there have been 53,006 civilian casualties, including 14,534 deaths, according to UN monitors.
These figures do not include the millions of displaced people and Ukrainian refugees.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres again urged a full, immediate and unconditional ceasefire as the first step towards a just and lasting peace that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.
Yet in the midst of the conflict, the number of Ukrainian men of military age leaving for Europe has risen sharply. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said: “I asked the Ukrainian president to ensure that young men from Ukraine in particular do not come to Germany in ever-increasing numbers, but rather serve in their own country.” He called for a halt to the nearly 2,000 military-age Ukrainians entering Germany each week.
Even before the war, Ukraine had long struggled with corruption. Recently, close associates of President Volodymyr Zelensky were charged in a US$100 million embezzlement case involving the energy sector. Several ministers implicated in the wrongdoing are believed to be close to the president.
Corruption is corrosive in any country, especially one engaged in a life-or-death struggle. Transparency International ranks Ukraine 105th out of 180 countries; Russia stands at 154, near the top of the global corruption index.
Meanwhile, eight Nordic and Baltic countries have contributed $500 million to an air-defence programme for Ukraine. The Trump administration has pressed NATO partners to share the burden through the “Prioritized Ukraine Requirement List” (PURL), under which allies purchase US-made equipment to send on to Ukraine.
“Denmark is helping to ensure that Europe takes even greater responsibility for making critical American weapons capabilities available to Ukraine. The joint Nordic-Baltic donation package shows that we stand together in support of Ukraine. Continued support for Ukraine is directly linked to Europe’s security,” said Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen. US supplies to Ukraine, however, have significantly depleted Washington’s weapons stockpiles for other contingencies.
Ukraine is about to endure its fourth winter of war — as many as this former Soviet republic faced during the Second World War. It is time for the United States and Europe to redouble their efforts to secure a ceasefire and initiate peace talks.