’Muli’ opens boxes of ‘what ifs,’ finding songs to keep and stories to unpack

What if you could go back and make a different choice? What if the life you have now had taken a completely different path? These are the questions at the heart of FlipMusic’s Muli, an all-new Filipino musical that looks at memories, relationships and the possibilities that linger in the question of ‘what if?’

Featuring 11 original OPM songs, the musical follows Anita, a 42-year-old mom looking back on the different paths she could have taken, with ’90s and early 2000s nostalgia woven throughout the show.

It begins with Anita, played by Kakki Teodoro, and her daughter Kath, played by Janine Teñoso, sorting through boxes of old belongings and memorabilia. Among their finds are old video recordings of Anita singing, setting up its preoccupation with nostalgia and looking back.

Y2K core

That idea of looking back is practically built into the production. Nostalgia runs through “Muli,” not just in its story but in its music, visuals, references and costumes. The show knows how to evoke the ’90s and early 2000s, with callbacks to everything from beepers and early mobile phones to the unmistakable sound of dial-up internet, alongside details that have fueled the current Y2K revival.

For those who grew up in the era, there are plenty of familiar details to spot, recognize and laugh at.

The stage gives the production a much bigger canvas, though its darker, almost somber look can sometimes make “Muli” feel heavier than the nostalgia at its heart suggests. The costumes also help make each version of Anita feel distinct and believable. I especially loved seeing her in the school uniform with its oversized skirt, which felt so convincing and familiar, down to the kind of girl you might remember seeing around school.

Beautiful score, compelling castThe 11-song score, written and produced by Nica del Rosario and Matthew Chang, is easily the production’s most fully realized element. You can hear the artistry and chemistry between the two, which they have also demonstrated in their earlier work on “Gregoria Lakambini: A Pinay Pop Musical.”

Here, they bring that same knack for crafting distinct sounds and moods into “Muli,” with the songs shifting alongside Anita through different eras of her life. The track ‘Anita’ is infectious, while ‘Ina Niyong Lahat’ builds into a grand ensemble number that makes for a fitting Act 1 closer.

More importantly, the songs feel like they were written for a musical rather than tracks simply placed between scenes. They move the story and reveal character… where “Muli” feels most fully formed.

Kakki Teodoro is convincing as Anita, carrying much of the musical’s weight with remarkable stamina. She is almost constantly onstage, moving between Anita’s younger, more ‘tweetums’ self in the lookbacks, particularly in her scenes with Ian (Vien King), including their number ‘Sarili Nating Kwento,’ and the more mature mother she becomes, as seen in her scenes with Marvin Ong (Maki). She also takes on different versions of Anita across the what-if scenarios, giving each iteration of the character its own distinct take.

Meanwhile, Janine Teñoso is another standout. As Kath, she brings both vocal power and emotional conviction to the role, making it easy to forget that this is her theater debut. Her scenes with Teodoro ground the mother-daughter relationship. The two make the song ‘Baka Bukas’ especially believable and moving.

The supporting cast gets its own moments to shine, too, particularly Anita’s three best friends, played by Baus Rufo, Marynor Madamesila and Justine Peña, who also double as her backup performers in most of the musical numbers. Their friendship provides some of the show’s lighter and genuinely funny moments, especially in ‘Barkadolls’ and a portion of ‘Hit Me Baby One More Time.’ The trio share an easy chemistry, whether they’re teasing Anita, backing her up or simply being there for her.

A musical about what could be”Muli” finds a deeply relatable premise in one of our most human impulses: wondering what might have been. ‘What if?’ can surface in a quarter-life crisis, when we question our careers or relationships, or much later, when we look back at roads not taken.

Sometimes, it comes from comparing our lives with others and imagining whether we would be happier, more successful or simply different had we chosen otherwise. “Muli” taps into that familiar longing without suggesting that another version of our lives would necessarily be better. Sometimes, it is enough to wonder.

Funny, nostalgic and emotionally stirring, “Muli” takes audiences on a rollercoaster of emotions as it turns the universal question of ‘what if?’ into a distinctly Filipino musical experience.

At times, the ideas do not always come together as neatly. As we get to know Anita, we begin to wonder what prompts her regrets and looks back, and while the eventual reveal makes sense, its payoff feels less satisfying. Some emotional turns could also use more buildup and tigthening, but these are relatively small gaps in an otherwise affecting exploration of possibility.

This is where the status of “Muli” as an entirely new Filipino musical becomes most apparent: its music already feels formed, while its story is still finding its shape – with room to become even richer and more cohesive.

Perhaps the cabinets and boxes that fill its set offer a fitting metaphor for the musical itself: there is much worth opening up, even if some pieces could use more sorting. However, rummaging through them is all part of the fun: songs worth streaming again, a cast that gives the material plenty of life, and nostalgic references that are fun to spot. There is something for audiences to recognize in its mix of original music, Filipino nostalgia and the very human urge to wonder about the road not taken.

Like Anita, “Muli” may still be sorting through some of its pieces, but it has already found many worth keeping. There is enough heart, music and familiarity here to make the rummaging worthwhile and make this a musical worth opening yourself up to.

“Muli” runs until September 27 at the BGC Arts Center in Taguig.

Verbruggen edges Federiso to rule Sunrise Sprint

Yuen Verbruggen saved his biggest burst of speed for last, surging past Jerald Federiso in a frenetic closing run to capture the overall Sunrise Sprint crown in the Damosa Land 5150 Triathlon in Davao del Norte here Sunday.

Verbruggen stayed within striking distance of Federiso through the 750-meter open-water swim and 20-km bike leg before unleashing a powerful finishing kick over the 5-km run to clock 1:11:31.

He timed 14:06 in the swim, 34:24 on the bike and 20:15 in the run to complete the sprint-distance course.

Federiso had the early advantage, posting faster splits of 13:46 and 33:48 in the first two legs. But Verbruggen proved too quick in the run, where his 20:15 was more than a minute better than Federiso’s 21:18, allowing him to secure the overall victory by 40 seconds.

Federiso settled for second in 1:12:11, while John Carl Lim completed the podium in 1:12:49.

Verbruggen, Federiso and Lim also swept the top three spots in the 18-24 age category in the Sunrise Sprint, a fast-paced side event designed for newcomers, returning competitors and seasoned triathletes looking to sharpen their speed and race strategy.

In the women’s division, Alessandra Aquino dominated the field to claim the overall and 18-24 titles in 1:26:01. She posted splits of 14:42 in the swim, 42:18 on the bike and 25:17 in the run, finishing well ahead of Andrea Cui (1:29:38) and Keena Clarke (1:46:58).

James Van Ramoga and Natalie Doromal-Lim, meanwhile, captured the overall titles in the second Damosa Land 5150, while Edgie Arances and Anisha Caluya topped the Filipino Elite categories in the demanding Olympic-distance event featuring a 1.5-km swim, 40-km bike and 10-km run of the event organized by Sunrise Events, Inc., with the support of Damosa Land president Cary Lagdameo and Samal Mayor Lemuel Reyes.

Other Sunrise Sprint age-group winners were Yohann Hernandez (male 16-17, 1:29:03); Seanna Clarke (female 16-17, 1:45:20); Justine Pabuala (male 25-29, 1:19:14); Elaine Montante (female 25-29, 1:46:26); Rolen Tarife (male 30-34, 1:13:15); Regine Valentin (female 30-34, 1:34:08); Jefferson Tabacon (male 35-39, 1:18:40); Kristine Dasargo (female 35-39, 1:35:50); Randie Briones (male 40-44, 1:22:23); Monica Ugarte (female 40-44, 1:45:44); Eric Vasquez (male 45-49, 1:32:12); Tyr Cyd Alarin (male 50-54, 1:37:14); Fe Justeniani (female 50-54, 2:11:47); Porferio Banquirigo Jr. (male 55-59, 1:35:26); and Ed Camacho (male 60-64, 1:53:21).

Team Juna 2 ruled the men’s relay in 1:02:30, followed by Team FOV Tri Team (1:05:04) and Team Orangutri SR1 (1:08:56), while Team TDN Consteel Builders Tri captured the women’s relay in 1:23:53 and also topped the mixed relay in 1:10:27, beating Team Tri FM (1:15:27) and Team SCTR Plus 1 (1:27:31).

In the Damosa Land 5150 team competitions, Team Somats, led by Leo Bingcang and Gio Juaneza, topped the women’s division in a combined 13:11:35. Ferrumtri was second in 13:44:29, followed by Tri DavSur in 13:49:07.

Team TDN Consteel Builders won the men’s relay in 1:57:39, while Team NCC Tri Team 3 topped the mixed relay in 2:08:03.

Other Damosa Land 5150 age-group winners were Zita Clarke (female 16-17, 2:57:07); Moira Aves (female 18-24, 3:05:24); Lorelle Sorongon (female 25-29, 2:58:02); Aime Teodisio (female 35-39, 2:57:14); Joanna Cruz (female 40-44, 2:55:15); Rhen Marte (female 45-49, 3:07:58); Catherine Arias (female 50-54, 2:52:10); Maria Goc-ong (female 55-59, 2:58:36); Jo Cudmore (female 60-64, 4:01:14); Allan Sola (male 25-29, 2:27:55); Jupert Remollo (male 30-34, 2:30:12); Nelson Cañedo (male 35-39, 2:24:31); Johnson Ejase (male 40-44, 2:35:04); Arthur Abogado (male 45-49, 2:23:09); Ritchie Solana (male 50-54, 2:28:36); Andreas Goros (male 55-59, 2:41:55); Jens Jacobsen (male 60-64, 3:01:24); Rodrigo Lara (male 65-69, 3:26:01); and Nick Cudmore (male 70-74, 3:09:08).

Team Alfa captured the women’s team title in 2:35:01, edging Team FLIQ FerrumTri (2:36:02) and NCC Tri Team 2 (2:37:19).

NiMet warns of strong winds, thunderstorms across Nigeria

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has forecast thunderstorms and rainfall across several parts of Nigeria from Monday to Wednesday.

NiMet disclosed this in its weather outlook released on Sunday in Abuja, warning that strong winds may precede thunderstorms in some areas.

For Monday morning, the agency forecast thunderstorms accompanied by light rain over parts of Taraba and Kebbi states.

It predicted scattered thunderstorms with moderate rain over parts of the North-East, Kaduna, Taraba and Kebbi later in the day.

‘For the North-Central region, thunderstorms accompanied by light rain are expected over parts of Niger State during the morning hours.

‘Later during the afternoon or evening hours, thunderstorms accompanied by moderate rain are expected over most parts of the region,’ it said.

NiMet forecast cloudy skies across the southern region on Monday morning, with isolated thunderstorms and light rain over parts of Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Cross River.

It predicted thunderstorms accompanied by light rain across the region later in the afternoon or evening.

For Tuesday, NiMet forecast patches of cloud over the northern region during the morning, with thunderstorms and light rain over parts of Taraba.

Later in the afternoon or evening, thunderstorms accompanied by moderate rain are expected over most parts of the northern region.

The agency said: ‘For the North-Central region, partly cloudy skies are expected during the morning hours.

‘Later in the day, thunderstorms with moderate rain are expected over parts of the Federal Capital Territory, Niger, Nasarawa and Plateau States.’

For the southern region, NiMet forecast mostly cloudy skies during Tuesday morning, followed by thunderstorms and light rain over parts of Ebonyi, Enugu, Abia and the South-South.

For Wednesday, the agency predicted partly cloudy skies across the northern region, with thunderstorms and moderate rain over several states during the morning.

The affected areas include Borno, Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna, Adamawa and Taraba states.

NiMet also forecast thunderstorms accompanied by moderate rain across most parts of the northern region later on Wednesday.

For the North-Central region, it predicted partly cloudy skies during the morning, with isolated thunderstorms and light rain over parts of the FCT, Plateau, Niger and Nasarawa.

The agency forecast thunderstorms accompanied by moderate rain over most parts of the region later in the day.

Across the southern region, NiMet predicted cloudy skies during Wednesday morning, with thunderstorms and moderate rain over most parts later in the day.

It warned that strong winds might precede thunderstorms in areas where rainfall is expected, urging residents to take necessary precautions.

‘The public should take adequate precaution and ensure that loose objects are fastened to avoid collision,’ NiMet said.

It advised motorists to avoid driving during heavy rainfall and urged residents to disconnect electrical appliances from sockets during thunderstorms.

‘Stay away from tall trees to avoid impact from falling branches and broken trees,’ the agency advised.

NiMet also advised airline operators to obtain airport-specific weather reports and flight documentation for effective operational planning.

‘Residents are advised to stay informed through weather updates from NiMet. Visit our website,’ the agency said.

LTFRB seeks Comelec exemption from ban on subsidy programs

The Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) has asked the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to exempt from the government spending ban some of its programs, including the fuel subsidy for public transport drivers and Edsa busway ‘Libreng Sakay’ (free rides).

According to the transport regulatory body, LTFRB acting Chair Greg Pua submitted a letter to the Comelec on Sept. 15 in which he explained that his request covered programs that cater to the transport needs of commuters.

Among these were the service contracting program, ‘Libreng Sakay’ for both the Edsa busway and Love Bus, P12-per-liter fuel subsidy and monthly subsidy for qualified participants of the Public Transport Modernization Program.

‘The subject programs are continuing government programs and are not election-related or partisan activities. They are implemented pursuant to existing laws, appropriations, policies and program guidelines,’ Pua said in a letter addressed to Comelec Chair George Erwin Garcia.

He assured Garcia that the implementation of the LTFRB programs would comply with objective eligibility requirements, proper documentation, validation, accounting and auditing rules and other safeguards prescribed by Comelec ‘with no participation or involvement of candidates or political parties.’

Rationale

In line with the Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan Elections scheduled on Nov. 2, the Comelec has prohibited the release, disbursement and spending of public funds from Sept. 18 to Nov. 1. The ban is intended to prevent the misuse of taxpayer’s money and avoid influencing voters into favoring a candidate. Only programs that secure an exemption from the poll body will be allowed to continue during the election period.

On Friday, the LTFRB announced that it is suspending the P12-per-liter fuel subsidy program starting on Sept. 18 in line with the election ban.

CHR asked to probe alleged harassment of KMP leader

Peasant network Tanggol Magsasaka has asked the Commission on Human Rights (CHR) to investigate alleged harassment and surveillance activities that targeted Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas (KMP) chair Danilo Ramos last week in Malolos, Bulacan.

According to a complaint filed by the group with the CHR on Friday, six men in civilian clothes went to the barangay hall of Barangay Dakila before noon on Sept. 12. Ramos lives in the area.

According to Tanggol Magsasaka spokesperson Ronnie Manalo, four of the men introduced themselves to Barangay Captain Vener dela Cruz as farmers and said they were looking for Ramos.

When Vener asked who they were and why they were looking for the KMP official, the four men replied that they wanted to talk to him. They also asked if there were other farmers they could talk to.

The men later identified themselves as members of the military, saying they were with the ‘general headquarters.’ One of them introduced himself as ‘Master Sergeant Banjo.’

Before leaving, they reportedly told the barangay captain that they would return on Sept. 14 to talk with Apolinario Surio, who chairs the Barangay Agrarian Reform Committee.

Three relatives of Ramos, on the other hand, reported three unidentified men snooping around the entrance to their homes in Puroks 3 and 4 of the same barangay, also on Sept. 12.

Safety concern

On Sept. 14, three of the six men returned to Barangay Dakila and talked to Surio and Barangay Councilor Teodulo Teodoro. They asked for information about the farmers’ organizations in the area.

According to Manalo, the incidents caused concern to Ramos and his family and prompted them to put on hold their work in the fields.

Ramos has also been forced to take precautionary measures such as avoiding going home because of safety concerns, the Tanggol Magsasaka spokesperson said.

According to Manalo, the recent incidents add to previous cases of harassment that had targeted Ramos and other farmers in the area since they participated in anticorruption protests over the flood control controversy in September 2025.

Tanggol Magsasaka urged the CHR to immediately investigate the latest incidents, including the supposed Master Sergeant Banjo

Wike and the Rainbow War in APC

Game theorists warn that when two hawks meet, the expected payoff for each becomes negative: C > V > 0. Yet, it is the man who is afraid to join a fight who says: ‘I was not born into this household.’ The ?dán tree at the doorstep never fights the homeboy’s battles.

And when a proverb strikes close to home, only a weakling lets it pass unanswered.

The game and the proverbs are for those blaming FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike for answering the APC governors fire for fire last week.

Speaking on Channels Television, an APC leader from Jigawa, Hon. Farouq Aliyu, wondered why Wike chose to fight governors who had not mentioned his name in their rejection of political alliances. Aliyu made it clear that his party was not ready to swallow the poison Wike had helped it feed the PDP.

Like a harvester of heads who cannot bear the sight of a sword, Aliyu said: ‘We appreciate what he (Wike) did for us, and anybody that is willing to destroy his party for us, we welcome him, like Wike tried to destroy his party. Now, we will not allow him to also use our party, the APC, to build his own party, the PDP. He cannot come through the back door in the name of support for President Tinubu.’

Last week, I discussed Nasir El-Rufai and the hubris that hanged his freedom. Today, it is Nyesom Wike, the man some of our local Salman Rushdies have christened Nigeria’s ‘peer president’.

In their battles and rhetoric of war, Wike and El Rufai are political twins. One is the highly calculating, intellectualised political archetype of the North; the other is the street-savvy, fiercely combative Emperor Shaka of the South. Check their operational DNA, their thirst for control, their no-prisoner methodology, and their no-nonsense communication. How else do two sides of the same political coin look like?

Listen to Shaka, the Zulu king, in Ernest Ritter’s 1955 biography, ‘Shaka Zulu’: ‘Strike an enemy once and for all. Let him cease to exist as a tribe or he will live to fly in your throat again.’ Does that not sound like the creed of our political twins?

For a clearer picture of what I mean, look through the lens of Francesca Haig’s dystopian novel, ‘The Fire Sermon’. In its post-apocalyptic world, every human is born a twin: one an Alpha, the other an Omega; different in form and fortune but inescapably bound together. Wike and El-Rufai may inhabit opposite ends of Nigeria’s political geography, but they are products of the same furnace of power.

Both are short of stature; neither is ever short of wars. They reincarnate Òjó Aburúmákú, the 11th Ààr? ?`nà Kakanfò, who stirred up a rebellion against himself when he could find no war to fight, then violently crushed it. His name, Òjó Aburúmákú, means, literally, ‘the terrible one who will not die.’

Wike, a survivalist tenant in the APC’s house of power, is currently confronting a constellation of APC forces supposedly ‘jealous’ of his Rainbow Coalition in Rivers, in Kwara, Imo, Gombe and elsewhere.

In Romeo and Juliet, Shakespeare asks: ‘What is in a name?’ Sometimes, a great deal: history, prophecy and warning. Nyesom Wike’s choice of ‘Rainbow’ as adjective for his coalition contraption carries all three. On July 10, 1985, French secret agents sank Greenpeace’s flagship, Rainbow Warrior, as it prepared to lead protests against France’s nuclear tests in the Pacific. Wike’s Rainbow Coalition is now sailing through similarly hostile political waters, with APC governors determined to stop it before it reaches the electoral battlefield.

‘The APC Governors Forum unanimously resolved that its members would not participate in, support or endorse any alliance or political arrangement capable of undermining the re-election of Mr President, weakening the APC or adversely affecting any candidate of the party at all levels. In other words, the forum has no intention to support any candidate at any level that is not an APC candidate because our candidates who are contesting the election are being sponsored by our party. The governors’ campaign commitment is exclusively to all APC candidates.’ That was from APC governors as they attacked Wike’s Rainbow Coalition on Monday, 14 September, 2026.

The statement was the first shot, unprovoked. Was it not Isaac Newton who taught that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction? Wike is one General who never receives fire without returning it. Freeborns do not hire others to rinse their mouths for them; they speak for themselves. Wike did on Tuesday, 15 September, 2026:

‘They are politically lazy. When you have your local problems, don’t use Mr President as your excuse… The governor of Kwara, so unfortunate-anytime he sees a snake, it is Wike. Anytime he sees a reptile, it is Wike. Any day he doesn’t eat, it is Wike. I have never seen people devote more time to gossip than to the work they have been given. He has three serving senators; he changed all of them. He has House of Representatives members; he changed all of them… When I start… I have been on my own. They are looking for trouble where there is no trouble…’

Who else would talk that tough and tall in this democracy but Nyesom Wike, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, our presidential power-sharer?

I think Wike was right in his choice of words. His snake metaphor was apt; the warning about some people looking for trouble was equally spot-on. The APC governors are indeed inhaling trouble. But it may already be too late for us to warn them: trouble is under their roof.

In ‘The Farmer and the Viper’, Aesop tells the story of a farmer who found a snake frozen, stiff and almost dead from the winter cold. Moved by pity, the farmer picked it up, tucked it inside his coat and carried it home. Warmed by the farmer’s body, the snake came back to life. The moment it recovered its strength, it sank its fangs into the breast that had saved it.

As the poison spread through him, the dying farmer said: ‘I have only myself to blame. I knew it was a snake when I picked it up.’

That is the APC’s story with Nyesom Wike. The slave-catching party brought him into its warm house because it needed his sulphuric acid to dissolve the PDP’s flesh and bone. Now warm, secure and powerful, Wike has announced that his loyalty is to Bola Tinubu, not to the APC, its governors or its candidates. The governors are unhappy. They may protest, but the snake has committed no offence against its nature. It has merely done what snakes do.

Beyond Aesop and his ancient tales, I consulted the sages who preserved the lessons of the classics. Unto them I poured a libation of ìbà (homage and reverence) while scooping from their well stories that illuminate APC’s many-coloured fight.

In Epistles I.10, the Roman poet, Horace, warns that you may drive nature out with a pitchfork, but it will always return (Naturam expelles furca, tamen usque recurret). The APC apparently thought appointment and presidential favour would make Wike forget the instincts that made him Wike. But office does not alter nature; it merely gives nature a larger room in which to operate.

In Book II of Virgil’s ‘Aeneid’ is the story of Troy and the Trojans: the treachery of Sinon, the fatal deception of the wooden horse and the tragic fall of King Priam. This is not quite a story about the persistence of nature; it is about the folly of carrying into one’s fortress the instrument of one’s own ruin. The APC governors are beginning to know that what they welcomed as Tinubu’s electoral gift may be their Trojan Horse. Wike entered the fortress bearing votes for the president; they now fear that he also carried within him candidates and coalitions capable of opening the shut gates of power to the opposition.

In Ovid’s ‘Metamorphoses’, we read of King Lycaon’s depravity, the thunderbolt that destroyed his palace and his transformation into a wolf. Lycaon did not become savage because he became a wolf; he became a wolf because savagery was already in his nature. In the same manner, Wike did not acquire his combative instincts upon entering the APC government; the APC merely dipped the man’s arrowheads in poison. Indeed, the party recruited Wike precisely because it had seen what his bite did to the PDP. It is therefore strange that APC governors are now crying blue murder at the sight of their valued scorpion’s raised tail.

The original Rainbow Warrior was attacked from outside by the French. The captain of Nigeria’s political rainbow, however, is lodged deep inside a government and a party which seek to sink his vessel. In this battle, the APC is both the anchoring harbour and the hostile navy; it shelters Wike in Abuja while firing at his multicoloured ensign from the states.

Around me is a congregation of football devotees. So, I asked them if football offered its own picture of this strange arrangement. They chorused yes. Wike is a PDP player who loaned himself to Tinubu’s team. He helped the president win the last championship and was rewarded with a commanding place in the starting eleven. But the APC governors have now discovered that wearing the government’s jersey is not the same as belonging to their club. Wike insists that his loyalty is to the man who signed and fields him, not to the club and the other players in the dressing room. The greater provocation is that with the next championship on the horizon, he is now seen tackling APC players while creating scoring chances for candidates in rival jerseys. In regulated football, such a player would be accused of divided loyalty; in Nigerian politics, the referee simply waves play on.

My football fanatics pointed at José Mourinho’s first spell at Real Madrid. Hired by club president, Florentino Pérez, Mourinho enjoyed the confidence of the man who brought him in but became embroiled in conflicts with powerful figures in the dressing room. He fought Cristiano Ronaldo, battled Sergio Ramos and benched the legendary goalkeeper, Iker Casillas. The resulting struggle was a ‘nightmare’ which divided the club despite Mourinho’s success on the pitch. Historians of that period say by the time Mourinho left the club in 2013, the dressing room was completely fractured, with reports that senior players had given their president an ultimatum: ‘It’s him or us.’

It is strong, particularly the ‘rainbow warrior’ callback. I would tighten it slightly:

APC governors may soon give Tinubu the same ultimatum: ‘Choose between us and your Rainbow Warrior.’

It is a Hawk-Dove situation. If they fight dirty, the cost of the conflict may exceed the value of the resource they are contesting. Game Theory expresses it neatly: C > V > 0, where V is the value of the contested resource and C is the severe cost of an escalated mutual conflict. The theorists warn that when two hawks meet, the expected payoff for each becomes negative. Even animals appear to recognise this ruinous outcome; hence, they have evolved mixed Hawk and Dove strategies which keep conflicts from becoming fatal. But animals may be wiser than politicians-especially where power and money are involved.

So, for Tinubu, his Wike, and his APC, we will be happy to witness the choice they make and the consequences.

Whatever the choice, one thing appears certain: there will be a price to pay for all the dirty bombs being detonated in this war. France ultimately paid dearly for sinking the first Rainbow Warrior. Those firing at Wike’s Rainbow Coalition will discover that political torpedoes also come at a price. I have my popcorn ready. Elections are coming; at the state level, both sides will play rough-and both will pay dearly. I swear!

The physical and financial losses in Nigeria’s power sector (Part IV)

In Part I, we established that Nigeria had 13,625 megawatts of installed grid-connected generation capacity, but only about 5,174 MW was available on average between April 2025 and March 2026, according to quarterly reports by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). Part II showed that generation averaged 4,312 MW. Part III followed that electricity into the eleven Distribution Companies (DisCos): they received 30.31 terawatt-hours (TWh), billed only 25.20 TWh, issued about ?3.00 trillion in customer bills and collected ?2.36 trillion. Their Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATCandC) loss was about 35.9%.

Part IV, which completes the series, traces the financial chain.Across the twelve months, the 28 grid-connected plants operated by Generation Companies (GenCos) generated about 37.77 TWh. NERC’s transmission-loss identity indicates that 2.93 TWh was lost in transmission or consumed at substations and 30.31 TWh reached domestic DisCos, implying about 4.53 TWh went to international customers.The export ledger remains incomplete. The quarterly reports do not disclose the energy-sale invoices or settlements for the estimated 4.53 TWh. The US$74.15 million identified for international customers represents Market Operator service invoices-not the electricity’s full sale value.

The GenCoinvoice

NERC’s ?3.14 trillion total GenCo invoice covers electricity delivered to domestic DisCos, not all 37.77 TWh generated. For the 30.31 TWh received, the invoice averaged ?103.59 per kilowatt-hour.But the reports do not show how much each GenCo invoiced. That breakdown is important: it would allow comparison of individual GenCo invoices with plant availability in Part I and actual generation in Part II.

Under NERC’s DisCo Remittance Obligation (DRO) framework, about ?1.39 trillion was assigned to DisCos through DRO-adjusted invoices from the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET), while ?1.75 trillion became a Federal Government tariff-subsidy obligation.The reports do not establish how much government actually settled during the period.

Put simply, about ?45.85 per kilowatt-hour was assigned to DisCos, and ?57.74 became Federal Government subsidy obligation. NBET bills DisCos for their DRO-adjusted share and the Federal Government for the balance.

These figures cover generation costs only, excluding transmission and market charges and DisCos’ operating and allowed revenue requirements. Customer tariffs vary across service bands. Band A customers pay tariffs much closer to cost-reflective levels, while Bands B-E remain subsidised.How much of the ?1.75 trillion subsidy obligation was associated with electricity supplied to each of Bands B-E, how much electricity did each receive, and were promised hours delivered? NERC should publish these data by DisCo and service band.Against the 25.20 TWh billed, the ?1.75 trillion obligation equals ?69.44 per billed kilowatt-hour-an analytical ratio, not a NERC tariff. It exceeds ?57.74 per kilowatt-hour received because 5.11 TWh was not billed, reinforcing Part III’s conclusion that reducing ATCandC losses is central to market sustainability.

The DisCos also had ?320.76 billion in Market Operator obligations for transmission and market services, bringing their combined adjusted NBET and MO obligations to about ?1.71 trillion.They remitted ?1.61 trillion, leaving about ?96.7 billion unpaid during the period under review.

Who gets the most subsidy?

Using Part III’s ATCandC categories-Strong, Moderate, Poor and Critical-the government share of associated GenCo invoices rises as DisCo performance deteriorates: 50.6% for Strong DisCos; 54.9% Moderate; 57.4% Poor; and 65.2% Critical.Yola had the highest share of its associated GenCo invoice covered by Federal Government subsidy, at 78.8%, followed by Kaduna at 64.7%. Yet the largest subsidy amounts in absolute naira were associated with higher-volume networks: Abuja, about ?256.3 billion; Ikeja, ?244.4 billion; Ibadan, ?219.5 billion; and Eko, ?206.5 billion.Percentage subsidy share measures dependence; absolute subsidy amount measures fiscal exposure. A smaller DisCo can therefore have a high subsidy share but modest naira amount, while a large-volume DisCo can have a lower share yet a much larger obligation.

While ATCandC measures how effectively electricity supplied to a DisCo becomes collected revenue, subsidy share and amount are shaped mainly by supply volume, allowed tariffs, service-band mix and generation cost. High ATCandC losses matter indirectly by weakening revenue recovery and a DisCo’s abilityto meet its market obligations. This distinction can guide targeted subsidies for productive small businesses and industrial users across the country.

How can the subsidy burden fallwithout burdening Nigerians?

NERC reported that in Q4 2025 Band A’s share of grid energy increased from 40% to 45%, while the quarterly subsidy obligation fell from ?458.75 billion to ?418.79 billion. It identified the increased Band A allocation as the principal driver.

However, this raises a distributional question: how should scarce electricity be allocated while protecting productive and vulnerable users? NERC should publish, by DisCo and service band, energy allocated, actual hours delivered and associated subsidy. The larger challenge is to reduce the fiscal burden without putting reliable, affordable electricity beyond the reach of productive users outside Band A.

The ?57.74 per kilowatt-hour subsidy burden can be reduced through several interventions.

Generation costs can fall through a more economic energy mix, efficient thermal plants, lower gas costs and stronger merit-order dispatch. In Q2 2025, Shiroro, Jebba and Zungeru hydropower plants were dispatched at 74.79%, 74.42% and 70.47%, respectively-below the 90% minimum under NERC’s mandatory-priority dispatch order for hydro, the cheapest generation source. Greater use of lower-cost hydro and utility-scale solar, particularly in Northern Nigeria where daily solar radiation reaches about 7 kWh/m²/day compared with about 4 kWh/m²/day in the South, could further lower generation costs.

System costs can fall through lower transmission losses, while better metering, billing and collection can enable DisCos to carry larger DROs without creating new arrears. More cost-reflective tariffs can also reduce subsidy, but tariff reform without improved efficiency and service risks transferring system failure to consumers.

Illustratively, a 10% reduction in the ?103.59/kWh GenCo invoice, with DRO unchanged, would reduce Federal Government subsidy by roughly ?314 billion. If lowering DisCo ATCandC losses from 35.9% to 25% enabled a sustainable ?10/kWh DRO increase, another ?303 billion could be saved. Together, the ?1.75 trillion obligation could fall by about ?617 billion, to roughly ?1.13 trillion.

A further option is structured federal-state co-funding of targeted subsidies. Under a 70:30 formula, the Federal Government would fund 70% of the subsidy for eligible consumers in each state, while states would fund 30%. Contributions would therefore vary with each state’s subsidy exposure, so larger electricity markets would contribute more in naira terms. Applied to the illustrative ?1.13 trillion remaining subsidy, the Federal Government’s burden would fall to about ?790 billion, with states providing about ?340 billion. Support could target productive small and medium-sized businesses, farms and factories that pay taxes, raising output, jobs and, over time, states’ internally generated revenue. These scenarios show that subsidy reduction need not depend principally on higher tariffs. It can also come from lower generation and system costs, better revenue recovery and targeted federal-state intervention.

Conclusion

Government says legacy power-sector debts accumulated between February 2015 and March 2025 were agreed at ?3.3 trillion as full and final settlement, with a ?501 billion inaugural bond already issued. Our period under review begins on April 1, 2025-immediately after that legacy-debt period. The question is whether the post-March 2025 market can prevent today’s shortfalls from becoming tomorrow’s legacy debt.

Government also intends to phase out electricity subsidies in 2027. It has announced a Power Sector Reset and other reform initiatives, but the key question is whether these will become an integrated, sequenced restructuring programme before subsidy withdrawal. The public needs to see how the 2027 phase-out will be tied to measurable improvements across the electricity value chain.

The four-part series has shown that Nigeria’s electricity crisis is a chain of failures. Breaking that chain requires fixing the system as a whole, not merely changing who pays for its failures.

Tinubu to Oluremi at 66: If life began again, I’d choose the road that led me to you

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has celebrated his wife, First Lady Senator Oluremi Tinubu, as she marks her 66th birthday.

In a heartfelt post on X on Monday, the President described Oluremi as his truest friend, confidante and crown, praising her patience, grace and uncommon courage through their years together.

‘Oluremi mi, @SenRemiTinubu. Today, I celebrate the woman who has walked beside me with patience, grace and uncommon courage,’ Tinubu wrote.

Quoting a Yoruba adage, the President said, ‘Àw?n àgbà s? pé, ‘Ìyàwó rere ni adé ?k? r?`.’ A good wife is her husband’s crown,’ adding that his wife has given true meaning to the biblical description of a virtuous woman.

President Tinubu recounted how the First Lady stood by him through uncertain times, offering prayers, counsel and honest truth even when it was difficult to hear.

‘In difficult times, when the future was uncertain, you stayed calm beside me and prayed with me. Through all these years, you have remained the one who truly understands me,’ he stated.

He also lauded her impact beyond their home, from her work with the New Era Foundation during his tenure as Lagos State governor to the Renewed Hope Initiative, through which she has supported young boys and girls, widows, elderly citizens, women farmers and persons affected by tuberculosis.

‘Nigerians know you for your compassion, kindness, generosity of spirit and steadfast faith. For you, compassion has never recognised the boundaries of tribe, region or religion,’ the President said.

Reflecting on their journey together, Tinubu said if life gave him another chance, he would still choose his wife.

‘A long journey teaches a man the true value of a good partner. We have travelled a long road together… If life returned me to the beginning, I would choose the same road that led me to you. Through every mile, my heart has always remained at home with you,’ he wrote.

He concluded with a prayer for his wife: ‘Happy 66th birthday, my darling Oluremi. I pray that God Almighty will grant you many more years in good health and joy.’

Govt. mulls fuel subsidy amid possible Oct. price hike: President

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake yesterday said the Government expects to provide a subsidy to cushion the impact of a possible fuel price increase from 1 October.

Speaking at a public rally in Akuressa, Dissanayake said global market prices indicated that fuel prices would have to be increased from the beginning of October under the existing pricing formula.

‘According to global market prices, fuel prices need to be increased in October. When we calculate the cost based on imported fuel prices and the pricing formula, prices would have to increase from the first of the month,’ he said.

However, the President said the Government would consider providing a subsidy to ease the burden on the public.

‘When a major burden falls on the people, it cannot simply be passed on to them entirely. The Government has to provide some assistance to ease that burden,’ he said.

New chapter for Asia-Pacific creativity as Spikes Asia evolves into LIONS Asia

After nearly four decades championing Asia-Pacific creativity, Spikes Asia is evolving into LIONS Asia, including the Asia Lions Awards. The evolution will bring APAC closer than ever to the global LIONS community and create a new home for the creative marketing industry across the region.

The launch reflects a broader transformation taking place across industries, as organisations increasingly recognise creativity not simply as a communications discipline, but as a driver of business performance, customer growth, innovation and competitive advantage. As the boundaries between marketing, technology, entertainment and commerce continue to converge, LIONS Asia has been created to provide a platform where diverse disciplines can come together to learn, connect, collaborate and drive growth.

Following direct feedback from marketers, agencies and industry leaders across the region, the new LIONS Asia Festival will take place in its original month of September rather than the previous March timing, giving Asia-Pacific’s creative marketing community a clearer focal point in the calendar and creating a more relevant moment for the industry to come together.

At its heart will be two cornerstone experiences:

The LIONS Asia Festival of Creativity: An evolved and dynamic gathering designed for the leaders driving growth across Asia-Pacific, convening marketers, creatives, agencies, technology innovators, platforms, entertainment companies, consultancies and business leaders. Bringing together the LIONS brands – WARC, Effie and Contagious – with world-class content, executive forums, peer-to-peer learning experiences and networking opportunities, the Festival will explore how creativity can be applied to unlock growth, transformation and innovation in a rapidly changing world.

The Asia Lions Awards: Recognising the ideas, brands and talent shaping the future of marketing and communications across Asia-Pacific, the Asia Lions Awards will recognise local creative innovation and excellence that transcends borders and connects into culture.

The move marks a major milestone for the continued partnership between LIONS and Haymarket Asia and reflects the growing influence of Asia-Pacific on the global stage.

LIONS CEO Simon Cook said: ‘Asia-Pacific is one of the most innovative, dynamic and influential regions in the world, and its importance to the global creative marketing agenda continues to grow. LIONS Asia represents a renewed vision for the future of creativity and marketing effectiveness in the region-one that connects local talent and ideas at the forefront of creativity to the world, while giving regional communities access to the evidence, inspiration and networks needed to accelerate growth and impact.’

Haymarket Asia Managing Director Atifa Silk said: ‘For nearly 40 years, Spikes Asia has shone a spotlight on the incredible talent, creativity and innovation that define this region. LIONS Asia builds on everything that has made Spikes Asia special while creating even greater opportunities for the community to learn, connect and be recognised-a platform that reflects the ambition, energy and growing global influence of Asia-Pacific.’

This evolution reflects a broader commitment from LIONS to bring its expertise closer to creative and marketing communities around the world. As the home of Cannes Lions, Effie, Contagious and WARC, LIONS is making its platform for creative marketing effectiveness more accessible to communities worldwide through year-round regional touchpoints. LIONS Asia will provide APAC’s creative and marketing professionals with greater year-round access to LIONS’ intelligence, learning, benchmarks, and global community – shaped around the cultural and commercial realities of the region’s market.

LIONS Asia Director Melanie Speet said: ‘Throughout our conversations with the industry, it became clear that people are looking for more than inspiration. They want practical insights, meaningful connections and evidence of what drives growth. LIONS Asia has been designed to deliver that, bringing together world-class learning, global expertise and the region’s most influential leaders to help organisations navigate an increasingly complex business landscape.’

The first LIONS Asia Festival of Creativity and Asia Lions Awards will take place in Singapore, September 2027, creating a dedicated moment for Asia-Pacific to come together, celebrate the very best creative work and help shape the future of marketing, communications and business across the region.