When hunger fuels a dangerous market

What is quietly unfolding across Nigeria’s food markets is not innovation but a public health emergency disguised as survival. The growing trade in repackaged and often expired food products reflects a deeper economic distress, but its implications are far more dangerous than many realise. From Iju-Ishaga to Agege and Mile 12 markets, what appears to be a cheaper alternative for struggling households is, in reality, a breakdown of food safety systems and regulatory authority.

Nigeria’s fast-moving consumer goods market, valued at over N34 trillion, was designed to operate within strict safety and traceability standards enforced by the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC). These standards are not cosmetic but the backbone of consumer protection.

Labels, batch numbers, and expiry dates exist for a reason, to ensure that what people eat is safe, traceable, and fit for consumption. Yet, across major markets, these safeguards have been stripped away, literally.

Food products originally sealed in cartons and tins now sit in open buckets, sacks, and makeshift containers, sold by the cup. Their identities erased, their origins unknown, and their safety unverifiable. What began as a fringe activity has evolved into a booming underground economy, driven by one brutal reality – Nigerians are getting poorer and food is becoming unaffordable.

The economic crisis has not only expanded this market but also has legitimised it in the eyes of desperate consumers.

When a box of cornflakes sells for over N7,000 in a supermarket but can be bought for half the price in a roadside stall, the choice for many families is no longer about quality but about survival. But survival, in this case, comes with hidden costs that could prove devastating.

The implications are severe, as is the obvious public health risk. Once food is removed from its original packaging, it becomes vulnerable to contamination from moisture, heat, pests, and poor handling. The absence of expiry information means consumers are effectively eating blind. As global data from the World Health Organisation indicate, contaminated food contributes to millions of illnesses yearly, with developing nations bearing the heaviest burden.

In Nigeria, where foodborne illnesses are already underreported, this trend could silently escalate into a widespread health crisis. Repeated exposure to degraded or contaminated food, especially among children, can lead to long-term health complications, malnutrition, and increased healthcare costs.

Also, it collapses traceability and accountability. In a properly regulated system, defective or contaminated food can be traced back to its source and recalled. But once products are stripped of labels and redistributed through informal channels, that system collapses entirely. If an outbreak occurs, there is no way to identify the origin, isolate the problem, or prevent further spread.

Likewise is the distortion of the food economy, which undermines legitimate businesses that comply with safety standards and regulatory requirements. Manufacturers who invest in quality control and proper packaging are indirectly competing with a shadow market that cuts corners at every stage. Over time, this erodes industry standards and discourages compliance.

More troubling, however, is the supply chain behind this practice. Investigations reveal that many of these products originate from factories as ‘disposable goods’, items that are near expiry, incorrectly labelled, or deemed unfit for standard distribution. Under normal circumstances, such products should be destroyed or redirected for non-human use, such as animal feed. Instead, they are diverted back into the human food chain through a network of middlemen, often with internal facilitation. This is not just a regulatory lapse but a systemic failure.

The silence, or at best limited enforcement, from regulators raises serious questions. The visibility of these products in open markets suggests not a hidden problem, but one occurring in plain sight. If the rules exist but are not enforced, then they might as well not exist at all.

But beyond enforcement, the root cause must be addressed – economic hardship.

No amount of regulation will succeed if Nigerians cannot afford safe food. The rise of this market is a symptom of deeper structural issues, high inflation, weak purchasing power, and inadequate social protection systems. Until these are addressed, demand for cheaper, unsafe alternatives will persist.

The way forward must therefore be both immediate and structural. Regulators must step up enforcement, not through sporadic raids, but through sustained market surveillance and supply chain monitoring. Manufacturers must be held accountable for ensuring that rejected or near-expiry products are properly destroyed and do not re-enter circulation. Any internal complicity in diverting such goods should attract strict penalties.

At the same time, the government must address affordability. Policies that support local food production, reduce import costs, and stabilise prices are essential. Social safety nets must be strengthened to cushion vulnerable households from the harsh realities of inflation.

Equally important is public awareness.

Consumers must understand that cheaper food is not always safer food. The risks, though invisible, are real and cumulative.

ADC’s shadow sneaks into Obi, Kwankwaso’s NDC

The internal crises of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) are creeping along with former governors Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso to their new political platform, as the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) faces immediate scrutiny over its court-ordered registration and potential legal non-compliance. The new platform was registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) following a court order.

?A review of the commission’s website indicates that the party’s national executives are listed with ‘court order’ annotations attached to their names. This suggests judicial intervention was necessary for the party to gain official recognition.

?Obi and Kwankwaso formally exited the African Democratic Congress (ADC) on Sunday. They immediately aligned with the NDC, marking a significant shift in opposition politics ahead of the 2027 general election.

?In a statement announcing his departure, Obi cited a ‘toxic’ political environment and persistent internal instability within the ADC. The party has been grappling with a protracted leadership crisis, which led INEC to derecognise its national executives in early April.

?The commission only reinstated the David Mark-led leadership last Thursday following a Supreme Court of Nigeria ruling. However, the apex court also directed parties to return to the Federal High Court to resolve substantive issues, a development legal experts say could prolong the dispute.

?Despite presenting itself as a fresh platform, findings indicate the NDC may face its own legal complications. BusinessDay checks revealed that the court-order designation on the INEC portal could point to pending or previously contested litigation.

?Legal history and registration hurdles

?INEC announced the registration of the NDC in February alongside the Democratic Leadership Alliance (DLA). This brought the total number of political parties in Nigeria to 21.

?The party’s registration process dates back to 2017. Its initial application was denied by INEC over concerns that its logo closely resembled that of another political party, a dispute that was subsequently taken to court.

?Seriake Dickson, the party promoter and former Bayelsa State governor, said the court eventually ruled in favour of the organisation. Dickson noted that the court upheld their fundamental right to freedom of association and directed INEC to formalise their status.

?Compliance issues emerge over dual membership

?The electoral body complied with the judgment and issued a certificate of registration. Dickson added that no appeal was filed within the stipulated timeframe.

?However, further scrutiny of INEC records shows a potential compliance issue involving NDC national legal adviser Reuben Egwuaba. Egwuaba is also listed in the same capacity for the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).

?This appears to contravene Section 77 of the Electoral Act, which prohibits dual party membership and prescribes sanctions for violations. The development raises fresh questions about the legal standing of the NDC as it emerges as a rallying point for key opposition figures.

?Analysts divided over party viability

?Political observers have offered divergent views on the party’s legal standing and political viability. Former presidential candidate Chekas Okotie defended the legality of the registration, insisting it followed due process and was backed by a substantive judgment.

?Okotie stressed that the judgment was not merely an interlocutory order. He further dismissed claims of ongoing litigation, maintaining that the matter had been conclusively settled.

‘There’s a judgment… not just an interim order… that compelled INEC to register NDC,’ Okotie said.

?Political scientist and former federal lawmaker Bernardo Mikko cautioned against the growing reliance on courts to resolve political disputes. Mikko argued that excessive judicial intervention could distort Nigeria’s multi-party system and create perceptions of bias.

‘Not everything they have to run to the court. The courts cannot run our political parties for us,’ Mikko said. ‘As an APC member, I want us to win fair and square… otherwise it would not be fair to Nigerians, including myself.’

?Long-term stability remains uncertain

?Political analyst Jackson Lekan Ojo expressed scepticism about the long-term stability of the NDC. Ojo suggested that the same pressures affecting other opposition parties could resurface, warning that structural weaknesses could expose leaders to further setbacks.

?Ojo questioned the strategic judgment of opposition leaders aligning with a platform that has a history of legal disputes. He was also critical of the political class, accusing actors of lacking ideological consistency.

?’They are not serious-minded politicians,’ Ojo concluded.

‘They are just looking for any place where they can achieve their aim and objective. Problems are waiting for them at the corner of any political party… they know that they are all vulnerable to all these attacks.’

Nigeria banking liquidity jump outpaces private sector credit expansion

Banking system liquidity in Nigeria has surged sharply following the conclusion of the sector-wide recapitalisation exercise. However, growth in lending to the private sector has lagged behind the pace of liquidity expansion, pointing to a widening gap between financial system strength and credit transmission to the real economy.

?Data exclusively obtained from the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) showed that banking system liquidity rose to N4.15 trillion as of April 2026. This marks a 1,253.06 percent increase compared to the N306.54 billion recorded in April 2023, the year the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) first announced the programme.

?Recapitalisation reshapes industry balance sheets

?The recapitalisation drive, which concluded on 31 March 2026, has fundamentally reshaped industry balance sheets. Banks raised over N4.65 trillion over a 24-month period to meet new capital requirements. Despite this liquidity surge, credit to the private sector has expanded at a more moderate pace.

?Lending rose by 0.9 percent month-on-month to N94.61 trillion in February 2026, compared to N93.74 trillion in January. On a year-on-year basis, credit grew by 24.06 percent from N76.26 trillion in February 2025. This divergence highlights a growing disconnect between improved banking liquidity and the pace of credit flow to businesses.

?Ayodele Akinwunmi, United Capital chief economist, said the recently concluded recapitalisation, deposit mobilisation drives, and growing confidence in the banking system were key drivers of the increased liquidity. The jump to N4.15 trillion signals a significant structural shift, representing a 1,325 percent increase compared to 2025.

?Ayokunle Olubunmi, Agusto and Co head of financial institutions ratings, noted that a challenging macroeconomic environment is still discouraging lending, although banks are gradually increasing disbursements cautiously. He added that proceeds from the capital raise exercise significantly boosted industry liquidity.

?’The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well-positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks,’ Olayemi Cardoso, Central Bank of Nigeria governor, said.

?The CBN confirmed that 33 banks met the revised minimum capital requirements. The programme has strengthened capital adequacy ratios (CAR), with the sector maintaining levels above international Basel benchmarks. Minimum CAR thresholds remain at 10 percent for regional and national banks, and 15 percent for those with international authorisation.

?Muda Yusuf, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise chief executive officer, said that while recapitalisation has strengthened the capacity of banks to absorb shocks, the key question is whether this is translating into support for the real economy. Evidence suggests this linkage remains weak.

?Nigeria’s private sector credit as a share of GDP stood at 17 percent in 2025, compared with a sub-Saharan African average of 25 percent. Peer economies such as South Africa (57.5 percent) and Mauritius (69.8 percent) show stronger financial intermediation.

‘This gap underscores a persistent structural disconnect between the financial system and productive sectors of the economy,’ Yusuf said.

?Consumer credit in Nigeria remains low at about 7 percent of total credit, constraining domestic demand and limiting growth. More critically, credit to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) accounts for only 1 percent of total credit, despite SMEs contributing 50 percent of GDP and over 80 percent of employment.

?Sectoral allocation of credit also remains skewed, with services accounting for 55 percent of total credit, compared to 14 percent for manufacturing and 5 percent for agriculture. Yusuf added that 55 percent of bank lending remains short-term, with a maturity of less than one year, which is misaligned with the needs of the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors.

PFF U16 semis: Nathan Caligdong nails four goals as IGRFA annihilates OCZFA

Iloilo-Guimaras Regional Football Association (IGRFA) delivered a performance of breathtaking quality in the first semifinal of the inaugural 2026 PFF U16 National Boys’Championship, dismantling Olongapo City-Zambales FA (OCZFA), 10-0, at the Manuel Y. Torres Sports Center in Bago City on Tuesday morning to advance to the national final.

IGRFA was relentless from the opening whistle, with the combination of Nathan Caligdong, Stello Siloterio and captain Jaylord Dajay proving simply too much for an OCZFA side that had already made history for their region just by reaching the Final Four.

Caligdong opened the scoring in the 16th minute, finishing a midfield cross from Benedict Simon Sumagaysay with his left foot before Siloterio tapped in from the six-yard box in the 20th, fed by a Dajay cutback.

Sumagaysay’s second midfield delivery released Caligdong again in the 43rd for his brace, and the goals kept coming – Siloterio added a fourth from a Caligdong half-volley pass in first-half stoppage time before Caligdong completed his hat-trick from a Dajay midfield lob in the fourth minute of added time to send IGRFA into the break five goals to the good.

The second half was no less commanding. Dajay turned scorer himself in the 55th minute, driving through on an attacking run to finish inside the six-yard box, before Caligdong struck again three minutes later from a Dajay through ball to make it seven.

Joy Jamotillo Jr. got in on the act in the 63rd minute, tapping in from close range off a Dajay short pass in the final third.

Cyrus Prix Guevarra added a ninth with a composed solo counter-attack from the right in the 88th minute, and Jamotillo sealed the rout in stoppage time, converting the rebound after OCZFA goalkeeper Zeijan Garcia had saved Gab Belluga’s initial effort.

Named Player of the Match, Caligdong, nephew of Philippine football icon Chieffy Caligdong, spoke with quiet pride after his four-goal performance.

“Sinunod ko lang po ang mga sinabi ng coach ko, si Coach Joanna at lahat ng coaching staff. Disiplina lang po sa pagtulog at tsaka dedication lang sa laro,” he said.

The 14-year-old is already making the Caligdong name mean something new for a fresh generation of Philippine football.

“Napakasaya po kasi parang ako yung dumadala ng legasiya nya ngayon,” Caligdong said, alluding to Barotac Nuevo pride Chieffy, who scored 16 international goals for the Philippine men’s national football team from 2004-2013.

IGRFA head coach Joanna Marie Sabid reflected on the result with both pride and perspective, framing the championship as something larger than one team’s achievement.

“We also practiced yung play namin in preparation for the championship,” she said. “It’s a good start especially nag-umpisa na si U16 – this is also a chance and opportunity for different provinces, not only just Iloilo, but also different provinces in the Philippines to prepare and look forward for such competitions.”

IGRFA now awaits the winner of the second semifinal between Group B winners Negros Occidental RFA (NORFA) and Group A runners-up National Capital Region FA (NCRFA), with a place in the inaugural championship final at stake.

Senate bill seeks P5,000 cash aid for job-hunting fresh college grads

A bill that will provide fresh graduates of tertiary institutions with P5,000 cash assistance to help ease their job-hunting costs has been filed and is expected to be tackled in the Senate.

The proposed measure, Senate Bill No. 1961 or the ‘Fresh Graduates P5,000 One-Time Cash Grant Act of 2026,’ has been referred to the Senate Committees on Higher, Technical and Vocational Education and Finance.

According to its author, Sen. JV Ejercito, the bill seeks to institutionalize a productivity cash grant for Filipino graduates of higher education and training institutions as they transition from education to employment.

‘The problem is not just the lack of job opportunities but also the mismatch between the jobs available and the skills of fresh graduates. Many individuals who have completed tertiary education aspire to secure decent employment that provides adequate benefits for a stable and dignified living,’ Ejercito said in the explanatory note of his proposed measure.

He lamented, however, that fresh graduates often face financial challenges during the job search process, including transportation expenses for interviews, printing of resumes and documents, and the preparation of appropriate work attire.

‘Such expenses add to the financial burden and pressure experienced by young job seekers as they begin their transition into the workforce,’ he said, noting that thousands of fresh graduates are expected to enter the workforce this graduation season.

Ejercito noted that based on the 2025 Labor Force Survey by the Department of Labor and Employment, as cited by the Commission on Higher Education (CHED), there is a 2.6 percent increase in the number of unemployed college graduates from the December 2024 rate of 35.6 percent.

Ejercito explained that while Republic Act No. 11261, or the First Time Jobseekers Assistance Act, already provides fee waivers for first-time job seekers, the proposed measure aims to further expand government support through a direct cash grant.

‘The asssistance is intended to help fresh graduates cover the basic expenses related to their job search, allowing them to focus on developing their skills and preparing themselves to secure meaningful employment,’ he said.

He stressed that the government not only acknowledges the determination of young Filipinos to join and contribute to the labor force, but also demonstrates its commitment to easing their financial burdens as they seek employment.

If enacted, graduates must present proof of completion, such as a diploma or certification issued by their educational institution to avail the benefit.

El Niño history shows pattern of short-term fixes

The Department of Agriculture’s (DA) response to the looming Super El Niño includes shifting to less water-intensive crops, adjusting planting calendars, accelerating solar-powered irrigation, and coordinating with the National Irrigation Administration (NIA). These measures reflect short-term tactical approaches rather than a comprehensive and systemic strategy for the short, medium and long term.

Crop diversification into mung beans or cassava may reduce marginal losses. Planting calendar adjustments presuppose predictable rainfall, yet Super El Niño events are characterized by prolonged droughts and erratic precipitation, rendering such adjustments largely ineffective, as the Inquirer reported in 2026.

The rollout of solar-powered irrigation faces dual constraints: shortages of panels and pumps, and the absence of water sources during severe droughts. Irrigation systems, regardless of energy source, cannot function without adequate reservoir levels or accessible water sources. Coordination with NIA, meanwhile, becomes an exercise in rationing rather than expansion when dam levels fall below critical thresholds, as seen during the 1997-98 El Niño, according to David and colleagues (2009).

The DA’s Super El Niño measures are inadequate and narrow in addressing systemic vulnerabilities.

More pressing is rice supply security. Current projections diverge sharply. The DA estimates a shortage, or imports, at 3.6-3.8 million metric tons (MMT), but the USDA projects 5.1 MMT, with risk-adjusted forecasts suggesting 5.5-6.0 MMT under Super El Niño conditions, as the Inquirer reported in 2026. Palay output could fall to 17-18 MMT, erasing recent gains.

Compounding this is the National Food Authority’s (NFA) buffer stock of only seven to 15 days, far below ASEAN peers’ 30-day reserves. Vietnam, which supplies 80% to 90% of Philippine rice imports, may itself face production shocks, further tightening global supply.

The DA’s narrow tactical measures must therefore be complemented by systemic reforms. These include buffer stock expansion to stabilize domestic supply; regional diplomacy prioritizing ASEAN rice swaps and reserve-sharing agreements to mitigate external shocks; implementing a minimum support price of P25 to P27 per kilogram to incentivize farmers to sustain rice production despite climate risks; and diversifying import sources beyond Vietnam-such as Thailand, India or Pakistan-through early negotiations.

Other priorities include investing in water-harvesting infrastructure, including small reservoirs and aquifer recharge systems, for longer-term resilience, and managing demand through conservation measures to stretch reserves during peak shortages.

The broader context of peso depreciation and corruption-driven indebtedness further magnifies the problem. Rising oil prices, when combined with a weakened peso, inflate the cost of imports in peso terms. For example, a $100-per-barrel oil price at today’s P61-to-$1 exchange rate translates to P6,100 per barrel, compared with P4,200 per barrel when the peso was P42 to $1. This difference directly raises fuel pump prices and food transport costs, worsening inflationary pressures.

Without corruption-driven deficits, peso stability would have moderated the impact of oil price increases, keeping food prices more contained. Today, however, oil shocks hit an already weakened fiscal foundation, making their impact more severe.

The DA’s current measures are insufficient to confront the magnitude of the looming Super El Niño. Without systemic reforms, the Philippines risks deepening its dependence on imports, facing severe inflation and undermining food security. What is needed is a broader policy framework and structural reforms, rather than narrow tactical adjustments.

El Niño is not a modern phenomenon; it has been documented for more than a century. Pre-1980s events were severe, with some (1925-26, 1940-41, 1957-58) rivaling ‘super’ El Niños. These historical episodes highlight long-standing vulnerabilities in agriculture, water systems and trade issues.

The Philippines has endured repeated El Niño events since the early 1980s (Table 1). But each episode reveals a pattern of reactive, short-term responses rather than structural reform. The 1982-83 El Niño was among the earliest severe droughts, reducing crop yields and exposing the fragility of irrigation systems. The 1986-87 episode again disrupted rainfall, highlighting the vulnerability of rainfed rice areas.

The 1991-92 El Niño, compounded by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, devastated agricultural production and forced reliance on imports. The 1997-98 El Niño was among the strongest on record, cutting rice output by more than 20% and triggering one of the largest import surges in Philippine history.

Later episodes, such as 2002-03 and 2009-10, continued to erode productivity, while the 2015-16 El Niño inflicted P15 billion in agricultural losses. Most recently, the 2023-24 event affected more than 7 million Filipinos, with drought conditions reported in 37 provinces and dry spells in 22 provinces. Golden Gate Weather Services (2025) and OCHA (2024) noted these episodes demonstrate that El Niño is a recurring climate shock. Yet despite decades of experience, the country remains unprepared, repeating narrow tactical measures instead of building systemic resilience.

Dietary Dependence and the Need for Diversification

The Philippines has yet to institutionalize medium- to long-term resilience measures. Each episode triggers short-term interventions-calendar adjustments, crop shifts or emergency imports-without addressing structural vulnerabilities such as low buffer stocks, weak farmer incentives and overdependence on rice.

Policy discourse remains focused on the supply side of rice production, neglecting the demand side of consumption. This approach perpetuates vulnerability: When rice harvests fail, food security collapses. A more sustainable strategy requires dietary diversification.

The Philippines’ vulnerability to El Niño shocks is compounded by its rice-centric dietary patterns. Per capita rice consumption is estimated at 119 kilograms a year, among the highest globally, according to World Population Review (2026) and Helgi Library (2026). Historically, rice consumption in the Philippines was closer to 90 to 95 kilograms a year, meaning current intake has increased by more than 25%. At that consumption level, the Philippines would still be self-sufficient in rice and not dependent on imports during climate shocks.

Filipinos have also been overly reliant on polished rice, with limited attention to its health consequences. It digests quickly, spikes blood sugar and contributes to the rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Moderating rice intake to historical averages would ease import pressures, stabilize food security and improve public health outcomes.

Filipinos should now eat brown or dehulled rice, which offers nutritional and food security advantages compared with polished rice. Milling recovery is 8% to 10% higher, meaning more edible grain is retained from the same harvest, reducing wastage and easing import dependence. Its slower digestibility moderates blood sugar spikes, helping prevent type 2 diabetes and reducing the tendency to overconsume. Because it provides greater satiety, individuals naturally eat less rice, lowering per capita consumption toward 80 to 90 kilograms per year, below historical averages.

The looming Super El Niño should be seen not only as a threat but also as a catalyst for reforming the food system. Instead of remaining locked into a rice-centric diet that heightens vulnerability to climate shocks and import dependence, this crisis can push diversification of caloric energy sources. Alternatives such as root crops (cassava, sweet potato, taro, yam), maize, sorghum, millet and adlai provide resilient carbohydrate bases that thrive under variable rainfall and require less irrigation. Legumes such as mung beans and soybeans add protein while easing pressure on rice demand. Brown or dehulled rice, with higher milling recovery and slower digestibility, can moderate consumption levels.

Another rice extender is adlai. Adlai (Coix lacryma-jobi L.), also known as Job’s tears, is a traditional cereal crop gaining renewed attention in the Philippines as a climate-resilient alternative to rice. It is propagated through direct seeding, with plants maturing in about four to five months, and thrives in upland, rainfed or moderately irrigated areas. Unlike rice, adlai does not require flooded paddies, relying instead on well-drained soils and moderate rainfall, which makes it suitable for drought-prone regions. Nutrient requirements include nitrogen at about 80 kilograms per hectare, phosphorus at 50 kilograms P2O5 per hectare, and potassium at 20 kilograms K2O per hectare, ensuring optimal yield and grain quality, according to PCAARRD (2017).

Nutritionally, adlai is a rich source of carbohydrates, providing about 356 kcal and 73 to 74 grams of carbohydrates per 100 grams, surpassing rice and corn in energy density. It also contains 12 to 13 grams of protein per 100 grams, significantly higher than rice, making it both an energy and protein source. Its low glycemic index (GI 28), compared with rice (GI 73), makes it beneficial for individuals managing diabetes. Adlai is also rich in dietary fiber, calcium, phosphorus, iron and B vitamins, contributing to improved digestion, bone health and reduced risk of chronic diseases. FNRI (2020) cited bioactive compounds in adlai linked to anti-inflammatory, anti-diabetic and hypolipemic properties, reinforcing its role as a functional food.

Equally concerning is the low intake of vegetables among Filipinos. Expanding vegetable intake-squash, eggplant, okra, carrots, cabbage, tomatoes, beans, and leafy greens such as malunggay, kangkong, ampalaya, sitaw, talong, pechay, sayote, patola and kamote tops-supports micronutrient sufficiency and reduces risks of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. By embracing a diversified plate, Filipinos can achieve both climate resilience and healthier diets, transforming El Niño into an opportunity for systemic change.

The Philippines’ dietary imbalance is stark: average vegetable intake is only 40 kilograms per person per year, far below the WHO recommendation of 146 kilograms. At the same time, rice consumption is 119 kilograms per capita annually, among the highest globally. This combination-low vegetable intake and high rice dependence-reduces fiber and micronutrient intake, increasing risks of obesity, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

In contrast, neighboring countries such as Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia consume more vegetables and fermented foods alongside rice, resulting in more balanced diets. Thais eat 110 to 140 kilograms of vegetables, Vietnam 120 to 130 kilograms, and Cambodia 120 to 130 kilograms.

The contrast highlights the importance of promoting an ‘eat less rice, eat unlimited veggies’ strategy in the Philippines. Increasing vegetable intake would improve micronutrient sufficiency, reduce reliance on rice imports and strengthen resilience against climate shocks. Countries with higher vegetable consumption show better health outcomes, underscoring that dietary diversification is essential for both public health and food security in the region.

Conclusion

Recurring El Niño episodes highlight the structural vulnerability of a rice-centric food system in the Philippines. With a dense population and decreasing rice areas for production due to land use conversion, continued dependence on polished rice as the primary caloric source magnifies risks of import shocks, inflation and nutritional imbalance.

Historical evidence shows that every major El Niño has disrupted rice yields, underscoring the urgency of diversification. Moderating per capita rice intake is not only a food security imperative but also a public health strategy to reduce diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

What needs to be done: diversify caloric sources by promoting root crops (cassava, sweet potato, taro, yam), maize, sorghum, millet and adlai as resilient carbohydrate bases; shift to brown or dehulled rice; increase fruit and vegetable intake to meet the WHO-recommended 146 kilograms per capita per year; and strengthen public awareness campaigns by revising the national dietary motto to emphasize diversification and balance: ‘Eat less rice, enjoy unlimited veggies and fruits.’ This framing addresses caloric sufficiency, strengthens resilience against climate shocks, improves nutrition and reduces dependence on volatile rice imports.

Abiodun, Daniel, and the titanic battle for Ogun East

The tense political atmosphere prevailing between the governor of Ogun State, Prince Dapo Abiodun, and a former governor of the state, who currently represents Ogun East in the red chamber, Senator Gbenga Daniel, over who picks the senatorial ticket in the 2027 election is getting heightened by the day. As the date set aside for the primaries of the APC draws closer, fresh dimensions are unfolding, leading to unprecedented tension in the Ogun State polity.

While Daniel had shown interest in returning to the red chamber a long time ago, Governor Abiodun only recently indicated his interest. With that, the governor put an end to indications that he had only a passing interest in the seat. His endorsement as the consensus candidate of the APC at the Ogun East All Progressives Congress Strategic Caucus meeting, held in Ijebu-Ode recently, further signalled the fact that the governor was driving home the ambition on a fast lane.

Though there has been no love lost between Abiodun and Daniel, the tense situation between the duo, which only simmered for some time, had gone back to boiling point over the 2027 senatorial ticket for Ogun East. It is on record that Senator Daniel and Governor Abiodun were on the same page while the latter was seeking election into office in 2019. Abiodun had sought the support of Daniel to ensure his victory at the polls. However, shortly after Abiodun’s emergence, things fell apart, and the centre can no longer hold between the duo.

The cold war between the duo could be traced to the buildup to the 2023 National Assembly election. Daniel had shown his intention to run for the seat eyed by former Senator Lekan Mustapha and Prince Segun Adesegun, among other contenders. However, it was indicated that Governor Abiodun’s body language tilted towards support for Otunba Seyi Oduntan.

Aside from that, insiders believed that the camp of Senator Gbenga Daniel believed that it was not adequately compensated in the scheme of things, vis-à-vis governance and administration, in the state, especially as regards political appointments. They argued that only a handful of Daniel’s loyalists were given appointments, against the ‘promise’ made by Abiodun to compensate the camp if he got elected to office.

It was also believed that the aspiration of Governor Abiodun to unseat Daniel in 2027 is said to be another major issue. Senator Daniel was alleged to have worked against the interest of the APC in the 2023 general election, because of the belief that Abiodun would come for his seat in 2027 on completion of his second term in office. The allegation was that Senator Daniel directed his loyalists to support the candidate of another party in the 2023 election.

In the midst of all these developments, a building belonging to the wife of Senator Daniel, named DAKTEM Plaza in Ijebu-Ode, was pulled down by officials of the Ministry of Urban and Physical Planning Development over alleged contravention of the physical planning laws of the State. It was alleged that the officials of the state government carried out the demolition exercise at midnight, a development that further deepened the crisis. The government’s stance cited structural non-compliance and a lack of proper approvals for the said project.

The Daniel camp alleged that the demolition was masterminded by Governor Abiodun, which was labeled as ‘political vendetta’ and ‘desperate tyranny.’ However, the matter is before the Ogun State High Court for adjudication. Observers are of the view that the further threats of demolition against other Daniel-linked properties in Sagamu in 2025 might have cemented the notion that the rift was becoming a personal war between the dup. The recent endorsement of Abiodun as the consensus senatorial candidate by the Ogun East Caucus has, howeve , further escalated the issue, a development Daniel’s camp has described as a ‘rape on democracy,’ and one that cannot stand the test of time.

Daniel’s loyalists gave reasons why the former governor should be returned to the Senate in the interest of the people of Ogun East. Dr Mrs Josephine Soboyejo, a loyalist of the Senator, stressed the need for his re-election into the Red Chamber. She noted that seniority is critical in the Senate, and that, peradventure Abiodun finds his way into the Senate, he would be a junior Senator.

Soboyejo, a former commissioner in Daniel’s administration, maintained that the Senate rewards hierarchy, hence the need for continuity and sustainability. She said, ‘If Senator Gbenga Daniel is not re-elected, and Governor Dapo Abiodun goes to the Senate after his tenure, he will be a junior senator. He will line up behind ranking members. He won’t chair any grade-A committee that can pull roads, schools, or federal projects to Ijebu and Remo.

Interestingly, Governor Abiodun has made it clear that he will be contesting for the seat with a promise of ‘quality representation’ that the senatorial district had never experienced.

The governor faulted Daniel for launching negative media attacks on his personality in the name of politics and interest, while maintaining that he had supported Daniel’s political journey in occupying the Oke Mosan, Governor’s Office, and also his senatorial ambition.

He explained that having lost the governorship ticket to Daniel on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2003, he practically handed over his structure to the former governor to boost his victory at the polls.

The governor said that but for his intervention and pleading that the former deputy governor, Prince Segun Adesegun, and Senator Lekan Mustapha step down their Senate ambition in 2023, it might have been difficult for Daniel to have been a member of the National Assembly.

‘I was here when Sen Amosun became the governor, I was here when Otunba Gbenga Daniel became the governor, and I actually contested against him in 2003, and when he emerged from the primaries, I was the first to congratulate him and handed over all my structures to him.

‘And we know what we have done for each other over the years. I know how my relationship with Gov Daniel was when I assumed office, how I held his hands to reintegrate him into the party; these are facts.

‘I know what I did for Gov Daniel to become a senator. This is not something that I have ever said publicly, but these are facts. Prince Segun Adesegun and Sen Lekan Mustapha were the front-runners in that election, ‘he said.

Reacting to the video recording of Governor Abiodun, where he claimed to have been instrumental to the emergence of Daniel as the Governor of Ogun State in 2023, and also becoming the Senator representing Ogun East, the former governor said the accounts presented by the governor were riddled with fabricated lies and outright falsehood.

He said that Abiodun, in 2003, raised a coalition of other contestants against him, claiming he was not a ‘pure Remo’ man. He also faulted Abiodun’s claim that he handed over his political structure to him, adding that it was the late Senator Jubril Martins Kuye who surrendered his structure to him.

The former governor wrote: ‘I have maintained a stoic silence, especially on political matters, out of respect for what I considered to be the overall interest of the Ijebu heritage. However, I will respond to this particular issue in order to set the record straight.

‘As has become typical of our governor, his account was riddled with mischief and outright falsehoods. I have remained muted until now out of respect for the office of the Governor of Ogun State, a position I was privileged to occupy. Unfortunately, that respect appears undeserved by the current and outgoing occupier of that office, Prince Dapo Abiodun.’

According to Daniel, he played a major role in Abiodun’s quest to join the APC, adding that Abiodun had no role in his own journey to become a member of the party.

He said: ‘Contrary to claims, Prince Dapo Abiodun (PDA) had no role in my joining the APC. Key figures, who encouraged me included the then National Chairman, Mai Mala Buni, Chief John Oyegun, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, and Nasir el-Rufai. Asiwaju Tinubu had also encouraged me earlier.

‘The APC chieftains had planned an exploratory visit to my Sagamu residence, which coincided with another visit by the northern governors to PDA to address herdsmen clashes occurring in the state as of then. PDA joined them at my residence. During the visit, he theatrically presented me with a broom in front of the cameras.

‘One fine day, I received an invitation from the Chief of Staff to meet President Buhari alongside Dimeji Bankole. When PDA saw the pictures, he became upset that the meeting occurred without his arrangement, despite being informed. That became ‘Offence No. 2.’

‘He then advised me to visit Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. I did so with a delegation comprising Opeyemi Agbaje and Engr. Adeola. Subsequently, members of my delegation were reprimanded by PDA’s Tokunbo Talabi for accompanying me. That became ‘Offence No. 3.’

‘At that point, I began to withdraw, knowing PDA doesn’t want me in circulation,’ the lawmaker added.

As we move deeper into 2026, the rift shows no signs of mending. With the governor’s recent endorsement by key party leaders, the Gateway State is providing impetus for the titanic battle.

Observers of the Ogun situation have said that unless a truce is brokered by the national APC leadership or influential traditional rulers, the internal friction could create a vacuum that the opposition PDP, or a third-party movement might exploit in 2027.

For now, Ogun East remains the chessboard where both contenders are displaying their dexterity. As the governor makes a move, it is promptly countered with a masterstroke by the Senator. Ogun East Senatorial zone remains the theatre, and the last has certainly not been heard about the drama from that enclave.

In Nigeria, three million dwellings are vacant with a total cost of N9trn – Oyedele

You wrote recently on ‘Empty homes staring at the homeless of the world’ How?

The coexistence of high property vacancy rates and severe homelessness is a paradoxical global crisis. While millions of people lack ‘sustainable shelter’, millions of homes sit empty, often in the same cities and vicinities, driven by economic, environmental, social and demographic factors rather than a lack of physical space and finance. The scale is enormous and is giving housing experts all over the world a great concern.

While an estimated 100 million people are homeless worldwide, with up to 300 million facing severe housing insecurity – mostly lack of security of tenure, about 500 million of homes sit vacant. This scarcity of homes in the midst of abundance is partly due to human nature of greed with ‘high acquisitive trait,’ and majorly due to lack of control and organisation by the governments. Human beings can be reckless without control.

In England alone, over one million homes stand empty, or one in every 25, while over 350,000 people are homeless. In USA, estimates show over 14.9 million vacant homes, with some studies calculating over 21-45 empty units for every homeless person. Japan faces a ‘ghost town’ scenario with roughly nine million abandoned homes (‘akiya’) or 14 percent of its housing stock, due to an aging population. China has numerous ghosts cities all across the country, largely unoccupied urban developments featuring high-rise apartments, empty office buildings and empty paved roads due to mass developers’ miscalculation. They are located at Inner Mongolia, Kangbashi District (Ordos), Chenggong (Yunnan), Ling Gang (near Shangai) etc.

The whole of Cairo is becoming a ghost city after the ‘massive New Cairo’ was built without proper appraisal. In Europe alone, 38 million homes were estimated to be vacant as of 2016, with countries like Cyprus, Hungary and Italy having high vacancy rates of between 12-27 percent.

In Africa, most vacant homes are the result of poverty – poverty of the pocket and of the mind. The gestation periods of home construction in Africa is the highest globally with some homes taking about 15 to 20 years to complete. Most of the houses, especially in the peri-urban areas are results of speculation. Few Africans, who are opportuned to be in charge of public fund, pilfer as much as they can to invest in real estate – a good haven for money laundry according to Transparency International (TI).

Why are these homes staying empty, while people are homeless?

The phenomenon is not a direct 1:1 match, due to several factors. These factors, which vary between different countries, include Housing adequacy: Quantitative housing adequacy is not defined as housing quantity equilibrium. It is not when 100 houses are available to 100 people, for example. There must be excess units of about 10 percent uniformly in all the locations so that householders can have choices. People should be able to choose the most convenient houses for themselves considering their place of work, children school, location to hospital and market, etc.

Affordability challenge: Empty homes are often high-end investment properties or in areas where people cannot find work (cut-out areas), rather than affordable units in high-demand areas.

Investment Speculation: Many properties are purchased as assets by foreign investors or corporations and intentionally left vacant.

Some local citizens and foreign investors buy homes to launder ill-gotten money, while those in Diaspora buy them as second homes. These beautiful properties stay vacant, while homeless people cannot access them. Condition and Cost: Long-term empty homes often need massive investment for renovations (retrofitting) to make them habitable. This phenomenon makes their owners look the other way.

Rural decline/aging populations: As seen in Japan, rural areas empty as populations shrink, leaving houses with no heirs to maintain them.

Administrative/legal hurdles: Homes can be stuck in probate, legal disputes or waiting for planning approvals or ownership certificate issues. Example is the properties of the Late lawyer, Chief Rotimi Williams. Some homes are vacant because they are off-plan houses that there is litigation between the buyers and the property developers. Others are because the developers are waiting for grant of certificates of occupancy from governments.

What are the solutions to vacant homes crises in the cities?

Governments and organisations, especially non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are working towards striking a balance between housing adequacy and empty homes. While governments are providing supports and making laws to curb excesses in housing development, organisations are advocating for ‘retrofitting’ (renovating) empty homes to provide affordable housing, noting this is more carbon-efficient and climate change-compliant than embarking on new housing starts. The vacant houses crisis is not just a housing supply, but of housing distribution and affordability, where property acts as a commodity for wealth storage rather than a basic human need. Ireland has 10th highest rate of vacant homes in the world according to an October 2021 study.

In Ireland, the 2022 Census counted 163,433 vacant homes. Japan has over 8.5 million empty properties. In Nigeria, around three million dwellings are vacant with a total cost of about N9 trillion. These are the root causes and precipe for stemming global vacant houses.

We have a global housing mismatch, not a housing shortage. This pattern of housing underutilisation, entrapment and exclusion is not unique to any particular country alone. Governments of nations where we have acute cases of vacant homes need to legislate against it. This is because vacant homes in the midst of homelessness serve as economic sabotage as well as oppression! Governments can make law that will ensure owners of vacant homes are taxed heavily than owners of occupied ones and those whose houses have been vacant for more than ten years should have their houses forfeited to the government. Demolition of excess homes by governments is imminent to ensure sustainable housing markets. Empty houses are economic wastes to the nations and drains to the purse of the communities where they are located!

Can we say it is a deliberate decision to keep some people homeless?

It is becoming interesting globally amongst housing expert, the issue of the number of empty houses which are more than the number of homeless in the world. It is now becoming clearer that our housing challenges are not due to lack of physical space or finance to construct but due to lack of proper organisation. The homeless case in America is not different from that of Nigeria or Ghana or England. Out of the 25 million housing stock in England, about 1,000,000 units are vacant. In America, about 14.9 million houses are vacant as at December 2025. The cases are worse in some countries than others.

To answer the question, I will say No. It is not a deliberate decision to keep some people homeless. It is accidental due to lack of proper organisation and coordination by the governments of the countries where there are homeless. Though, it would not be gainsaying to say that the governments are intentional in keeping the homeless on the streets concerning the fact that housing is a right of every living soul as enshrined by the United Nations Organization (UN) Article 25 of 1948 which states that: ‘Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and necessary social services, and the right to security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of means of livelihood’ and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), which is a landmark 1966 UN treaty – in force since 1976 – that legally binds over 170 state parties to protect rights related to work, education, health and standard of living of their citizens. All the 48 countries who voted in favour of Article 25 of 1948 and the 170 countries that international covenant of 1966 bind included a section or subsection about housing as a right in their constitutions. These countries include Nigeria. If governments cannot live up to a charter and covenant in which they are signatories, then the homeless and other stakeholders are free to say governments are deliberate in keeping the homeless in the society.

Why are prices of new homes beyond the targeted middle and low income groups?

Most of the time, the prices of the houses constructed by the private developers and the governments (local, state and federal) are beyond the poor because they are ‘economic housing’ that are built as a business against ‘social housing’ that can be afforded by the people. The only way the poor and the vulnerable in the society can be properly housed in Nigeria is through social housing, Governments must be ready to build subsidised houses for the citizens. In doing this, there must be ‘Property Identification Number’ (PIN) so that no individual can access social housing more than once.

Should governments grant incentives to NGOs to step into the role of building affordable houses for low-income Nigerians?

Governments cannot give enough incentives to NGOs to build for the low-income group because NGOs are not property developers but have the mandate to assist the citizens in all endeavours. If an NGO thinks it can assist the citizens in the area of social housing through blended finance, the NGO should make the move, meet government representatives like the Governors and Commissioners for Housing, the money-bags in the society, buoyant religious bodies and private organizations like cement manufacturers, roofing sheets manufacturers, electric cable manufacturers etc, and organise the assemblage of the social housing

Lagos hospital launches clinical probe into patient’s death

The management of a Lagos-based hospital has launched a clinical probe into the death of one of its patients, Mrs. Faith Odaodu-Korode.

The clinical review, according to the management of St. Raphael Divine Mercy Specialist Hospital in Ikorodu, is meant to determine the circumstances surrounding the patient’s death.

In a statement, the hospital expressed sadness over the incident, stressing that it had immediately initiated a comprehensive internal review in line with established medical protocols.

Reaffirming its commitment to patient care, the management stated that the hospital holds patients’ safety and quality of care as sacred duties.

It reaffirmed its commitment to learning from every clinical outcome and continuously strengthening its systems.

It also noted that there is an ongoing engagement with the deceased’s family.

The hospital management urged restraint from the public, calling for due process in respect for the family of the deceased and the integrity of the medical review.

The statement reads: ‘The management and staff of St. Raphael Divine Mercy Specialist Hospital, Ikorodu, are deeply saddened by the passing of Mrs. Faith Odaodu-Korode.

‘We extend our profound condolences to her husband, children, family, and loved ones. We mourn with you in this moment of painful loss.

‘Following her death, the hospital immediately commenced a comprehensive clinical review of the incident. This review is being conducted in line with standard medical protocol to ensure it is thorough, objective, and fair to all parties.’

Alleged fraud: Court admits extra-judicial statement of Emefiele’s co-defendant

An Ikeja Special Offences Court yesterday admitted in evidence the extra judicial statement made by Henry Omoile, the co-defendant to the embattled former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Godwin Emefiele.

The trial judge, Justice Rahman Oshodi, ruled that Omoile’s statement was admissible in the ongoing trial of the former CBN governor.

Omoile had challenged the admissibility of his statements to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), alleging that his statement was not voluntarily given but obtained under oppression and inducement.

This led to a ‘trial-within-trial’ to determine the voluntariness or otherwise of the statement.

Omoile is currently facing a three-count charge bordering on unlawful acceptance of gifts as an agent, while Emefiele is facing a 19-count charge the EFCC filed against him over alleged gratification and corrupt demands during his tenure as the apex bank’s governor.

Both defendants pleaded not guilty to all charges.

During the resumed hearing yesterday, C. C. Okezie appeared for the prosecution while Labi Lawal (SAN) appeared for the first and the second defendants.

In a ruling, Justice Oshodi held that the prosecution had successfully proved that the statements obtained on February 26, 2024 were made voluntarily and not under any form of inducement, threat, or coercion.

‘I have carefully considered the evidence presented during the mini-trial. The environment was active, and there is no evidence that the second defendant was physically harmed. I am satisfied that the prosecution has proven beyond reasonable doubt that the statement was made voluntarily,’ the judge stated.

The court also ruled that the statements the defendant made on February 26, 2024, marked as Exhibits 1-3, were not obtained under duress and were, therefore, admissible as evidence.

But the court declined to admit the statements dated February 27, 2024, rejecting them because they were reportedly not made in the presence of a legal practitioner or under video recording.

Following the ruling, Justice Oshodi adjourned the case till June 26, 30, and July 6 and 8, for continuation of the trial.