Reactions to the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Council polls as well as those held in Kano and Rivers States last weekend have been interesting, and in some cases entertaining. Public attention was largely riveted on the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), the most high profile of the seats contested.
In the run-up to the election, the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) trucked in some of its heavy hitters with the aim of dealing Bola Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) administration an embarrassing electoral defeat in the very seat of the federal government.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar showed up to raise the hands of the party’s candidate, Dr. Moses Paul. He was joined by former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, who was at his populist buying a bottle of roasted groundnuts from a roadside vendor for a princely sum. He would become the subject of a thousand memes.
Not to be outdone, former Minister of Transportation and one-time Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, hit the hustings, chowing down on a maize cob, while scaring hapless traders with a strange exposition on the contents of the tax laws.
Minister of Youth and Sports under former President Muhammadu Buhari’s regime, Solomon Dalung, raised the stakes further. The gentleman who fancies himself something of a revolutionary – at least judging by his Ernesto Che Guevara-esque outfits – loudly proclaimed that once ADC triumphs in AMAC, they would have taken over the federation.
FCT Minister Nyesom Wike who has been executing an intricate political juggling act was in the thick of things – as is to be expected. His reputation as a political grandmaster was at stake. The polls would be interpreted as a referendum on his much-heralded accomplishments in the FCT. He wasn’t on the ballot but, in every sense, he was very much on it.
The new chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Joash Amupitan, faced scrutiny as to whether the agency’s performance under him would be rid of the usual shortcomings that attended the tenures of his most recent predecessors.
When the dust settled, the ruling APC swept five of the six councils, while the unheralded Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) took Gwagwalada Area Council. It was a lopsided outcome that went against social media chatter which had inflated the new opposition party beyond its limited capacity. Not many gave PDP much of a chance. Beyond winning in one council, it ran a respectable second in one or two others.
Many resignedly accepted the results as an inevitable result of Wike’s work in FCT. What trended in the last couple of days was the underwhelming performance of ADC which had been making loud boasts about uprooting the incumbent administration. Particularly interesting was the muted, in many cases near absence of allegations of rigging. Such claims are a regular staple in any Nigerian election. Even the reports of vote-buying were also not on the scale that attended recent polls in Anambra and elsewhere.
When Atiku eventually weighed in on the matter, he was more focused on the turnout said to have been in the region of 14%. By any standard this is abysmal, but not unheard of. INEC has since pointed out that this was an improvement on the 9.4% recorded during the 2022 exercise.
According to the former Vice President the low level of voter participation was a damning verdict on the health of Nigeria’s democracy under the current administration. He said such poor civic participation in the FCT, symbolic heartbeat of the federation, was not accidental.
He said: ‘It is the predictable outcome of a political environment poisoned by intolerance, intimidation, and the systematic weakening of opposition voices. ‘When citizens lose faith that their votes matter, democracy begins to die. What we are witnessing is not mere voter apathy. It is a direct consequence of an administration that governs with a chokehold on pluralism. Democracy in Nigeria is being suffocated slowly, steadily, and dangerously.’
He alleged that the Tinubu government had deliberately narrowed the democratic space by targeting dissenters, pressuring defectors and being intolerant of opposing views.
It is curious that Atiku lays all the blame at the doorstep of the administration. It is this same victim mentality that plagues much of the opposition. Not too long ago Obi was quoted as saying the government had decided he would not be presidential candidate of any of the existing parties and was doing its level best to execute this sinister agenda. In fact, it is held as fact by many, without evidence, that the myriad troubles of many parties are down to the Machiavellian machinations of the APC.
There’s no doubt that voter turnout has dropped progressively since the start of the Fourth Republic in 1999. But credit for that decline must but shared by all across the political spectrum. In many elections across the world, when turnout is low it tends to favour the incumbent. But where there’s enthusiasm for the opposition alternative, turnout spikes and often propels them to power. So, the rock bottom turnout can also be blamed on an opposition that has failed to capture the imagination of voters or excite them with their proposals.
Not too long ago ADC was snared in a needless controversy about the constitution of its manifesto committee. A couple of those listed publicly spurned the offer. If this late in the day a party that wants to be seen as a credible alternative to APC doesn’t have clear governance plans, it shouldn’t expect to be taken seriously. Beyond the avowed determination of its leading lights to oust Tinubu, not many can say what it stands for.
Some have argued that concerning 2027, too much shouldn’t be read into the FCT results. I would rather argue there’s much to be gleaned that tells you how things may play out.
For one thing, after all the bluster the lame performance of ADC is a demoralising psychological blow to its supporters and those who had been dreaming about toppling a party that controls 29 states out of 36. A party that was unable to provide agents in about 40% of FCT polling units, only exposed the fragility of its mobilisation infrastructure. If it cannot manage this challenge in such a small territory, how does it expect to cope in the far extremities of Nigeria?
What should trouble the opposition more is that the results of last weekend’s polls have further exposed the ongoing uncivil war playing out within APC ranks. Even the bitterest of Tinubu’s foes accept that only way he can be defeated is for all others to come together under one umbrella. But that is easier said than done because of the individual ambitions of leaders of the different tendencies.
That clash of interests has set Obi’s Obidients against Atiku’s followers. The former have demanded the presidential ticket for their principal on the basis of his ‘exceptionalism’ and current political mood down South which favours zoning. They have been insisting that it’s Obi or nothing. The former VP is implacably determined to run in what may be his last realistic chance at claiming the presidency. This tussle has polarised the party with its leaders remonstrating with hardline followers to no avail.
After ADC flamed out last weekend, both sides took their war of words online, trading blames as to who was responsible for the woeful performance. Some are already talking of Obi beating a retreat to the Labour Party (LP). This isn’t the best of looks for an organisation that wants to rescue Nigeria.
As things stand, for the opposition to oust the incumbent president would be akin to them pulling a rabbit out of the hat. Of course, this is politics and stranger things have happened. Still, I wouldn’t bet on that if I were you.