RECAP: Asian shares extended a global rout on Friday as much-anticipated US jobs data failed to provide clarity on the near-term outlook for interest rates, with investors dumping risk assets even after dazzling earnings from Nvidia.
The Thai bourse tumbled 2.14% on Friday to its lowest since August, partly due to rising political uncertainty as House dissolution as early as Dec 12 now appears possible.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,248.89 and 1,294.45 points this week, before closing on Friday at 1,254.40, down 3.2% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 33.93 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 1 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 423.86 million. Institutional investors were net sellers of 1.9 billion baht, followed by foreign investors at 328.21 million.
NEWSMAKERS: The US reported stronger than expected jobs growth of 119,000 in September, after a decline of 4,000 in August, according to a survey delayed by the government shutdown. But the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%, indicating a fragile labour market. Jobless claims also rose by more than expected.
Federal Reserve officials were at odds during their October meeting over cutting interest rates, debating whether a stalling labour market or stubborn inflation were bigger economic threats, minutes released on Wednesday showed.
The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 55.4% probability that the Fed will leave its policy rate unchanged at its December meeting, up from 37.6% a week earlier.
Nvidia’s third-quarter results topped forecasts with revenue soaring 62% year-on-year to $57 billion, prompting a sigh of relief in the market amid growing concerns about an AI bubble. The chip giant posted profits of $31.9 billion, up 65%.
Japan’s cabinet approved a stimulus package totalling ¥21.3 trillion ($135.5 billion), as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi seeks to boost the slowing economy and offer support to inflation-hit consumers.
Japan’s economy shrank 1.8% in the three months through September, the first contraction in six quarters. That compared with growth of 2.3% in the previous three months, but was better than analysts’ forecast of a 2.5% contraction.
The US trade deficit shrank 24% to $59.6 billion in August as exports edged up 0.1% to $281 billion. Imports fell 5.1% to $340 billion.
Japan logged a trade deficit for the fourth straight month in October, though it narrowed 53.6% from a year before to ¥231.8 billion.
Bitcoin dropped 2.1% to below $86,000 for the first time since April, as the market struggled to find new buyers and the momentum that had supported digital assets earlier in the year evaporated.
The People’s Bank of China kept its one-year loan prime rate unchanged for the sixth straight month at 3% as expected. The five-year LPR, the benchmark for mortgages, was kept at 3.5%.
UK consumer confidence tumbled in November, as almost 60% of Britons expect the economy to worsen over the next three months, while only about one-in-seven expect a pickup. The net score of minus 44 was the worst since April.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway said that it acquired Alphabet shares worth $4.3 billion in the third quarter, making the Google parent Berkshire’s tenth largest stock holding. Berkshire reduced its shareholding in Apple by 15% to $60 billion.
According to the World Bank, Thailand has slipped into third place among the economies of Southeast Asia, based on actual 2024 GDP, at $526 billion. Indonesia tops the table at $1.4 trillion, followed by Singapore at $547 billion.
Softer factory output and tourist arrivals slowed Thailand’s economy more than expected in the third quarter, with year-on-year growth of 1.2%, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter. But GDP shrank 0.6% from the second quarter, the first such drop since the end of 2022.
Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said Thailand may srtart gradually raising the value-added tax (VAT) rate, from 7.0% now to 8.5% in 2028 and 10% in 2030, if GDP growth reaches its potential.
Thailand’s budget deficit in the 2027 fiscal year is expected to shrink by 8.4% to 788 billion baht, the government said on Tuesday. The budget for fiscal 2026 is 3.78 trillion baht with a deficit of 860 billion.
The Bank of Thailand said overall bank lending contracted in the third quarter by 1%, the fifth consecutive quarterly drop, driven by a 4% decrease in loans to SMEs and a drop in consumer loans. Non-performing loans stood at 2.94%, up from 2.89% at the end of June.
The Thai Industries Sentiment Index in October dropped to 87.3 points, remaining below the 100-point growth threshold and extending a 13-month streak of volatility.
PTT Plc is considering offloading its stake in an EV joint venture with Taiwan-based Foxconn as it seeks to improve cash flow and brace for a sluggish Thai and global economy next year. The energy conglomerate expects to raise 100 billion baht from its asset monetisation programme in 2025-26.
Siam Cement plans to invest another $500 million at its $5.6-billion Long Son petrochemical plant in Vietnam as Thailand’s largest industrial conglomerate ramps up operations abroad to arrest an earnings slump.
SC Asset Corp is adapting to a sluggish housing market, offering rent-to-own options for buyers struggling to secure mortgages, and selling show units from the start of project launches.
The Ministry of Finance said phase 2 of the Khon La Khrueng Plus co-payment stimulus programme would begin in January. The size is expected to be similar to phase 1 at 40 billion baht.
COMING UP: Germany releases its business expectations survey on Monday followed by quarterly GDP on Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, the US publishes core retail sales, producer prices and consumer confidence index, and New Zealand decides on interest rates. On Wednesday, the US releases quarterly GDP, core personal consumption expenditure index and new home sales. On Thursday, Japan reports Tokyo monthly industrial production. On Friday, Germany reports monthly inflation.
Locally, InnovestX Securities and Bualuang Securities on Tuesday discuss listed-company performance and the 2026 market outlook. On Thursday, the SEC hosts the OECD-Asia Roundtable on Corporate Governance 2025.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities notes worsening tensions between China and Japan have prompted Beijing to cancel 500,000 flight tickets to Japan. This could redirect some Chinese tourists to Thailand. Potential beneficiaries include AOT, THAI, CENTEL, ERW, MINT, AAV and BA.
InnovestX Securities believes Thailand–US trade negotiations will progress without being disrupted by the ongoing border dispute with Cambodia. On the downside, domestic political uncertainty is rising, and the government may dissolve parliament earlier than anticipated. Recommended stocks include KTB, OR and BH.
TECHNICAL VIEW: ASL Securities sees support at 1,250 points and resistance at 1,280. InnovesX Securities sees support at 1,230 and resistance at 1,300.
