Economic decline deepens as consumer confidence dives

Thailand’s economy remained sluggish in August as private consumption slowed, farm incomes declined, and exports softened due to the impact of US tariffs, according to the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).

Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the FPO, reported on Monday that private consumption in August decelerated compared to the corresponding period last year, particularly in durable goods.

The number of newly registered motorcycles and passenger cars for the period decreased by 1.8% and 0.3% year-on-year, respectively, and also fell compared to the previous month after seasonal adjustments, by 3.0% and 4.8%.

According to Mr Pornchai, real farm income in August declined by 10.8% year-on-year, while the consumer confidence index dropped to 50.1, from 51.7 in the previous month. This reflected the slow pace of economic recovery, high costs of living, and concerns over geopolitical tensions.

Private investment remained stable compared to the same period last year. Private investment in machinery and equipment, as reflected by capital goods imports, rose by 23.6% year-on-year in August and edged up 0.1% month-on-month after seasonal adjustments.

Meanwhile, the number of newly registered commercial vehicles in August dropped by 10.5% year-on-year and fell by 8.5% month-on-month after seasonal adjustments.

Private investment in the construction category, as reflected by domestic cement sales, declined by 8.0% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month after seasonal adjustments.

Exports in August continued to expand compared to the same period last year, with the total export value in US dollar terms standing at US$27.7 billion, up 5.8% year-on-year, marking the 14th consecutive month of growth.

Exports excluding oil and related products, gold, and military goods rose by 5.4%.

Nevertheless, export growth was found to have decelerated following the US imposition of reciprocal tariffs, Mr Pornchai said.

In August, 2.58 million foreign tourists visited Thailand, down by 12.8% from the same period last year. However, domestic tourism increased, with 22.4 million Thai tourists travelling within the country, up 6.4% year-on-year.

For the industrial sector, the Thai Industries Sentiment Index in August declined slightly to 86.4, from 86.6 in the previous month, pressured by the border conflict, flooding problems, and uncertainty regarding the US tariffs. Meanwhile, Thailand’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 52.7, from 51.9 in the previous month, supported by an uptick in new orders.

Overall, Mr Pornchai said Thailand’s economic stability remained sound, as reflected by headline inflation in August which stood at -0.79%, and core inflation at 0.81%. Public debt at the end of July was 64.5% of GDP, still within the fiscal discipline framework under the State Financial and Fiscal Discipline Act.

External stability also remained strong, and capable of withstanding risks from global economic volatility, as reflected by international reserves, which stood at a high level of $267.4 billion at the end of August.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *