Despite a slowdown in population growth, the Philippines’ population is expected to keep rising due to ‘population momentum,’ officials from the Commission on Population and Development (CPD) said.
‘We are slowing down in terms of our population growth rate. But because of a large population base from previous years, driven by high growth rates in the past, this phenomenon is what we call population momentum,’ CPD Division Chief Mylin Mirasol C. Quiray said during a press conference organized by Bayer Philippines Inc. and UNFPA Philippines.
She said that even with the fertility rate now at 1.9, which is below the replacement level of two, the total population will continue to increase because those already born will mature, have children, and add to the population.
Dr. Corazon M. Raymundo, president of the Forum for Family Planning and Development, echoed Quiray’s explanation, comparing population momentum to a moving car that continues to roll forward even after the brakes are applied.
Family planning
Raymundo highlighted the success of family planning programs in the Philippines, which began in the 1970s with contraceptive services and health interventions. These efforts brought down the population growth rate from three percent at that time to the current 2.1 percent, reaching what is considered the replacement level, meaning the population can sustain itself without rapid growth.
‘Technically, that term [replacement level] means we’re now able to just replace a woman with another person and the father with another person. So it’s a success,’ she emphasized, noting that this stage is what many countries aim for when implementing family planning programs.
She noted, however, that while this decline is a positive development, it also brings a new challenge: the growing proportion of young adults, often referred to as the ‘demographic dividend.’
‘When the rate of growth of the population declines, that means we really want the number of babies to be less. Or the rate of growth is really measured by the number of babies that you bear vis-à-vis the number of total population,’ Raymundo said.
‘As the number of young adults grows, they are expected to drive the economy, but only if they are provided with education, employment, and opportunities for development,’ she added.
Maximizing potential of the youth
Raymundo emphasized that the country’s focus should now shift from controlling population growth to maximizing the potential of its youth.
‘Our demographic situation has improved, but the challenge is to ensure that this larger youth population has access to education, income, and opportunities for a better life. That is our new problem; not runaway growth, but making the most of our demographic dividend,’ she said.
Based on the 2024 Census of Population, the country’s population stood at 112.7 million, up by 3.7 million from 2020. While the population continues to increase, the annual growth rate has slowed to 0.8 percent from 2020 to 2024, nearly half the 1.6 percent recorded between 2015 and 2020. This deceleration has been linked to declining fertility and birth rates, elevated mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic, and subdued migration.
However, experts cautioned that certain demographic challenges, particularly the rise of adolescent pregnancies, may undermine these gains and affect the country’s long-term human capital development.
Adolescent pregnancies
Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) data show that adolescent pregnancies among those aged 10 to 14 are on the rise again, with reported cases increasing from 2,411 in 2019, slightly dropping to 2,113 in 2020, then rising again to 2,320 in 2021. The number climbed further to 3,135 in 2022 and reached 3,343 in 2023.
By region, the highest proportions of adolescent births were recorded in Region 12 with 13.7 percent (9,501 out of 69,223 births), Region 10 also at 13.7 percent (10,895 out of 79,551), and Region 9 with 12.6 percent (6,987 out of 55,313).
Meanwhile, the Cordillera Administrative Region posted 8.4 percent (2,146 out of 25,447), Region 4A had 8.2 percent (17,764 out of 217,906), and the National Capital Region recorded the lowest proportion at 7 percent (11,551 out of 164,002).
CPD pushes teen health measures
Quiray pointed to social, cultural, and educational gaps as drivers of adolescent pregnancies, citing the lack of open family discussions on sex, cases of abuse by older partners, and gender power imbalances.
She also emphasized the lack of comprehensive reproductive health education, with many adolescents turning to social media as their main source of information.
‘That’s why we are engaging micro-influencers and focusing on online platforms, because that’s where young people are,’ she said.
She said findings from the Young Adult Fertility and Sexuality Study show that increased exposure to online pornography has further complicated the issue, underscoring the need for stronger legislation.
‘That’s why we are advocating for the Adolescent Pregnancy Prevention Bill to be passed in the 20th Congress,’ Quiray emphasized, noting that it was filed by Kabataan Party-list Rep. Renee Rico to strengthen existing measures.
Comprehensive approach
Quiray said addressing adolescent pregnancy requires a comprehensive approach. This includes reproductive health education, greater access to health information and services, protection from abuse and violence, and socioeconomic support for young mothers to prevent repeat pregnancies.
She also emphasized that young people must be empowered to participate in policymaking, describing them as ‘the voice of the voiceless.’
To further raise awareness, Quiray cited ongoing efforts to promote reproductive health through platforms such as ‘I Choose,’ and Malayaako.ph.
‘Policies and education are really key to preventing adolescent pregnancy and addressing its costs,’ she said.
She added that local government units play a critical role, stressing that programs, budgets, and policies at the community level are essential to sustain adolescent health and development initiatives.
‘Social media shapes contraceptive choices’
In 2024, Bayer Philippines and the Commission on Population and Development (CPD) conducted the ‘Digital Conversion Study’ (DCS), which found that social media platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, and TikTok play a significant role in shaping contraceptive choices among Filipinos.
The study also revealed that respondents preferred digital materials presented in engaging formats, featuring real individuals sharing factual information about various family planning and contraceptive methods.
Building on these findings, Bayer Philippines and UNFPA recently launched the 2025 initiative, ‘Building Adolescent Peer Champions for SRHR,’ aimed at empowering young people to advocate for positive attitudes toward sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR).
The program trains both adolescent and adult social media influencers in SRHR communication and provides mentorship for content creation. Adult champions, including parents and community leaders from Pasig and Navotas, will also participate in workshops to support and amplify the campaign’s message.