As Uganda heads toward the 2026 general election, Busoga is shaping up to be one of the key battlegrounds.
The sub-region, once a reliable support base for the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), is now marked by frustration over unfulfilled government promises, deep poverty, poor infrastructure, and sharp political divides. From stalled road projects and idle ferries to soaring teenage pregnancies and leadership wrangles, the issues weighing on Busoga are expected to strongly influence how voters cast their ballots.
Longstanding pledges
Unfulfilled government pledges remain a key issue in next year’s election and could cost the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party support. Voters in the region now want a presidential candidate who will tackle these challenges. In Bugiri District, frustration lingers over President Museveni’s 2016 pledge to build a modern market. The project never took off, leaving traders in poor working conditions and slowing economic growth. In Buyende and neighbouring districts such as Kamuli and Kaliro, the promise to tarmac Bukungu Road has remained unfulfilled for years, even though it has often been used as a campaign message. The Amber Court-Mbulambuti-Bukungu road, covering Jinja, Kamuli and Buyende, is also in a dire state despite being on the President’s agenda since 2001.
Likewise, the Kasolo-Walugogo-Luuka-Kamuli road project has not yet begun. The road connecting Nankoma Sub-county to Bugiri and Namutumba is another example. Its poor condition has crippled the transport of farm produce, hurting local livelihoods. Other key roads such as Iganga-Kamuli and Kamuli-Kaliro, which were also meant to be upgraded, have seen little or no progress. Residents argue that without proper roads, access to markets and economic opportunities will remain out of reach. For many, these unfulfilled pledges have become a symbol of neglect, deepening the feeling that Busoga has been left behind in national development.
Ferries
Though the government constructed two ferries to connect Busoga, Lango, and Teso via Lake Kyoga, the vessels remain idle and non-operational. The delay has deeply disappointed residents who were eager to access better and cheaper transport alternatives. They are calling on the government to honour its commitments and prioritise these critical needs.
Poverty
Poverty remains a central issue shaping elections in Busoga. Busoga sub-region has a population of 4.37 million people as of May 2024, representing 9.51 percent of the national population, according to the 2024 census. According to the 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index Report by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (Ubos), 6.2 million Ugandans-14.7 percent of the population-live in extreme poverty, with Busoga ranking just above Karamoja and Acholi. In 2019, Busoga’s poverty level was 42.1 percent, higher than most regions except Bukedi (47.5 percent) and Karamoja (over 60 percent). The 2021/2022 report further showed that 14.5 percent of Busoga’s people are ‘totally poor,’ a situation linked to poor planning and rapid population growth.
Yet Busoga is endowed with fertile soils, industries, a strong cultural heritage, and tourist attractions such as the Source of the Nile and surrounding water bodies that are a source of local revenue. Leaders blame Busoga’s poverty on failed projects and weak leadership, citing internal wrangles and intrigue. They point to stalled initiatives such as the takeover of Busoga University, the planned Makerere University branch whose location remains contested, and the failed construction of Naguru Hospital, which was instead built in Kampala. For years, poverty in Busoga was also tied to jiggers, and today it is deeply connected to sugarcane growing, a crop that is no longer profitable.
President Museveni has repeatedly urged Busoga to embrace government anti-poverty programmes and rally behind the NRM party as a path to improved livelihoods. Geographically, the region is strategically located, bounded by Lake Kyoga to the north, the Nile to the west, the Mpologoma River to the east, and Lake Victoria to the south, with an average annual rainfall of 152cm.
Political landscape
In the 2021 presidential elections, National Unity Platform (NUP) candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, won in eight of the 12 districts in Busoga, showing strong support in urban and semi-urban areas. President Museveni and the ruling NRM, however, held onto four rural districts, underscoring the region’s sharp political divide. Busoga has since emerged as an Opposition-leaning but mixed region, with major towns tilting heavily towards NUP. Kyagulanyi’s strongest bases included Jinja City and Bugweri, while other districts such as Iganga, Mayuge, Luuka, Kamuli, and Bugiri also voted in his favour, reflecting growing frustration with the ruling party in urban centres.
In Namayingo, the contest was especially close, with Kyagulanyi edging Museveni by just 0.53 percent-a sign of its potential as a swing district in future races.
Mr Kyagulanyi yesterday commenced his 2025/2026 campaign in Busoga and was met with a hero’s welcome. Today, Busoga is viewed as a battleground region leaning toward the Opposition, but not completely out of reach for the NRM. Voter choices here are driven more by issues and candidate appeal than strict party loyalty, making the sub-region strategically vital for both NUP and NRM as 2026 approaches.
Kadaga factor
Ms Rebecca Kadaga, the First Deputy Prime Minister, remains an influential figure in Busoga. Fondly referred to as Mama Busoga, she is widely respected for her dedication to advancing the sub-region’s interests. She played a central role in resolving the long-standing Kyabazinga throne dispute that had deeply divided the region. Kadaga has also been instrumental in championing key development projects, including the elevation of Jinja to city status, the promotion of the Source of the Nile as a tourism hub, and the establishment of Kiira Motors Corporation. However, the loss of the Speaker of Parliament position in 2021, followed by her defeat in the race for the NRM second national vice chairperson (female) during the party’s primaries in August, left her visibly disgruntled.
‘I want you to remember that just a few years ago, I was publicly humiliated in this country. Publicly humiliated. The way I was removed from the office of the Speaker. I took it in good strides. I continued doing my work. But I’m being followed. How much more can you press an individual?’ she said a day before the August primaries. She also warned the President that her loss could impact the party’s performance in Busoga. ‘Mr chairman, I think it was your duty. And I have been talking to you about this matter for some time. I had informed you that if this matter goes to a contest, it will cause serious problems in my community. You may think …
People here may think you’re fighting an individual, but you’re fighting a bigger community. And that’s not right for the politics of Uganda. It would seem that in this party, loyalty is not important, and integrity is not important, and commitment is not important. That’s the message you’re sending here,’ she said. Given her influence in Busoga, Ms Kadaga’s endorsement of a presidential candidate carries significant weight. Her backing often boosts candidates’ chances, thanks to her strong grassroots networks. On September 19, thousands turned up in Jinja City to welcome her during a thanksgiving ceremony organised by her supporters. Despite her personal setbacks, Kadaga has reaffirmed her loyalty to the NRM and vowed to stand firmly with the party.
Teenage pregnancies
Busoga has the highest incidence of teenage pregnancies in the country, according to the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey conducted between 2019 and 2020, with as many as 89,347 cases.
Sugarcane
Sugarcane takes about 18 months to mature, but most farmers in Busoga harvest far less than their counterparts in commercial estates due to limited access to modern farming methods. For example, while farmers in Kakira average 120 tonnes per hectare, ordinary growers in Busoga often get only 60 to 70 tonnes from the same land.
Leadership issues
Observers note that Busoga’s political leadership has long struggled with unity, which has slowed progress. As a result, many believe that private sector players and civil society should take the lead in driving economic and community development, leaving politicians to focus on policy and legislation.
Fishermen
Fishing communities are calling on government to provide legal fishing gear at subsidised prices, saying many cannot afford proper equipment and are forced into illegal practices. Although the Fisheries Protection Unit (FPU) continues to patrol the lakes, enforcement alone has not solved the problem because illegal gear is still being imported. Fishermen argue that without tighter border controls and affordable, government-backed alternatives, illegal fishing will continue-threatening both conservation efforts and their livelihoods.
Healthcare
Like many districts, Buyende still lacks a general hospital. Residents are forced to travel long distances for treatment or pay heavily for referrals, even for conditions that could be handled locally.
Kagulu Hill
Kagulu Hill has the potential to attract both local and international tourists, but it remains underdeveloped. The site lacks access roads, signage, accommodation, and sanitation facilities. Locals are calling on government to invest in its development to boost tourism and create jobs.
Jinja Pier
Residents and trade stakeholders are also pushing for the redevelopment of Jinja Pier. Restoring this water transport link would ease cargo movement between Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, while protecting roads from heavy trucks. It would also lower transport costs and strengthen regional trade. Across Busoga, the message is clear: residents want government to act. From roads and hospitals to fishing gear and tourism, they are demanding that long-standing promises be fulfilled and delayed development projects finally delivered.