Economists expect the Bank of Thailand to keep its policy rate unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting, as the central bank awaits clearer economic data and allows time for its new governor to settle in.
Pipat Luangnaruemitchai, chief economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group (KKP), said the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to vote on Oct 8 to hold its policy rate steady, though the decision may not be unanimous.
“The meeting on Wednesday will be the first chaired by the new governor, and there are still several factors that require close monitoring,” he noted.
The central bank’s new governor, Vitai Ratanakorn, who assumed office on Oct 1, has reaffirmed the bank’s primary mission of safeguarding macroeconomic stability amid both domestic and global challenges.
Two newly appointed members will also join the MPC meeting for the first time: Charl Kenchon, former managing director at K-Research, and Suwannee Jatsadasak, the Bank of Thailand’s assistant governor for corporate development.
According to Mr Pipat, the MPC is expected to maintain policy space in light of weaker signs in the economy. He added that the regulator will also continue monitoring supply-side issues, particularly competitiveness in the manufacturing and export sectors.
While the central bank has already anticipated these challenges and continues to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance, Mr Pipat said the MPC is unlikely to cut rates at this meeting, preferring instead to assess the impact of its most recent cuts.
Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) also forecasts a non-unanimous vote to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.5%, following the 0.25 percentage point reduction in August.
“The majority of MPC members are expected to favour holding the rate in order to assess the impact of the earlier cut and preserve policy space for future use when conditions are more appropriate,” the centre said.
The MPC’s monetary policy stance is expected to remain accommodative, with greater focus on economic risks while ensuring financial stability.
SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), the research unit of Siam Commercial Bank, also predicts the MPC will keep rates steady this week. However, it expects a 0.25 percentage point cut in December, lowering the policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25%.
EIC noted that the MPC is expected to continue cutting the rate by 0.25 percentage points in early 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 1% in the first half of next year.
It added that the accommodative policy stance would help ease financial conditions amid slowing economic growth, inflation below target and deteriorating credit quality.
Further rate cuts would help support the economy, ease debt burdens and facilitate the deleveraging process for businesses and households. However, they may not significantly boost new lending, as both financial institutions and borrowers remain cautious, according to EIC.