As the Uganda government enacts policy reforms, it must not overlook the need to address climate change effects across the country. The impact of climate change can easily set back the aspiration of attaining middle-income status if not properly addressed. Uganda is the 14th most vulnerable country to climate change globally, and it is ranked as the 163rd in terms of readiness to cope with the impacts, according to facts contained in the Uganda Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), launched in Kampala by a team of experts from the World Bank.
Measures prescribed
Mr Cyril Desponts, a senior economist with the World Bank in Uganda said to address climate change resilience, it will have to be done sector by sector, including agriculture, energy, and infrastructure, among others.
Agriculture package
Mr Desponts explained that there is a need to promote resilient and productive agriculture and natural resources to achieve lower carbon emissions.
This includes on-farm and landscape measures to promote climate-smart agriculture, increase productivity, support water resource management, and reduce pressures that degrade the environment, and conserve forests and wetlands.
At the farm level, expanding irrigation and improving soil fertility can help counter the expected increase in crop yield variability.
Given the statistical information, he notes that between 2022 and 2050, crop yield could fluctuate between 12 percent and 12.5 percent
Climate change-induced soil erosion is expected to compound this vitality with additional yield decrease ranging from zero to12 percent.
‘Relative negative impacts on crops are concentrated in north and north-eastern Uganda. The country is therefore expected to expand climate-compatible irrigation to moderate yields,’ he said.
It will also need the development of operationalise plans that detail infrastructure needs, establish community-based management irrigation schemes, control water abstraction, monitor compliance, and promote micro irrigation. It is also necessary to raise farmer awareness about soil quality and help to them implement suitable, sustainable practices that can improve soil health. ‘Complementary efforts to transition to grow perennial crops and use drought-tolerant seeds to increase productivity.
Other measures are improving livestock feed systems to improve breeds for about 6.8 million households that own livestock,’ he added
This means heat stress and variable feed source availability will lower livestock production. Therefore, it is important to breed feed that is capable of withstanding climate change shocks. If the government provides means to support improved breeds, this will increase climate resilience, milk production, and increase animal weight.
Restoring degraded wetlands and forest catchments for a natural ecosystem and water storage will also help address climate change. It is a fact that since 1994, up to 40 percent of Uganda’s wetlands have been destroyed due to agricultural land expansion and urbanisation. To curb this, there is a need to establish sustainable management measures through the restoration of forests and wetlands and preservation of the natural ecosystem. The report also highlights efforts for the government to stop unsustainable use of firewood and charcoal sourcing because it leads to deforestation.
It is important to engage the private sector in scaling up climate-positive agriculture and agribusiness. This includes sustainable forest management and nature-based tourism, including farmers using early-maturing and drought-tolerant seed.
Energy and infrastructure sector
Climate shocks could damage the country’s power networks since most of the power lines are exposed to landslides and flood risk. The road networks, too, are exposed to the same climate change dangers. The statistics indicate that 45 percent of national district roads are vulnerable to floods and landslides. This leads to a high cost of road maintenance estimated to be 13.6 to 26 million US dollars by the year 2040, with associated road delays costing $2.6 million to $3.5 million in labour hours lost.
The solution is for the government to build climate-resilient and low-carbon infrastructure system.
In the face of the multiple challenges in as far as infrastructure is concerned, the government will need to invest $33.98 billion to develop climate-resilient transport infrastructure. In the energy sector, the report highlights that Uganda has about 1.2 billion barrels of oil reserves, but exploiting the oil and gas involves risks.
This calls for a low production cost below $30 per barrel. Environmental sustainability to control emissions is required. Ms Joy Mubale from TotalEnergies explained that dealing with the oil production in the Albertine region requires dealing with the communities, meaning conserving the environment is key.
The population depends on agriculture, fishing, and the Murchison Falls National Park is within the region. They have projects that help the communities to devise ways of promoting climate resilience, including the use of agricultural inputs and climate-resilient seeds.
Climate positive urbanisation
To ensure economic growth in the cities to keep pace with the growing population, the government is required to develop climate-resilient, low-carbon urban centres. This requires integrating climate considerations into investments in cities, water transport, energy, natural-based solutions and waste management, and health services.
Urban investments should boost the adoption of lower carbon emissions. Urban planning must reduce exposure to flooding and heat effects, meaning building materials used must not increase heat. For the above solutions to work well, the country will need coordinated effort in mobilising climate finance. The World Bank effort towards the climate change initiative provided $70 billion for the global initiatives, and for Uganda $28.1 billion (about Shs112.9 trillion) is needed for its national climate plan.
Apart from climate finance mobilisation, the country needs to improve the weather forecasts and disaster preparedness. This includes expanding and upgrading the meteorological monitoring networks by establishing a climate data system. This can allow the collection of data, storage access, and analysis from diverse sources, which can be used to make decisions.
Background
The Uganda CCDR highlights how the country can achieve its development goals while addressing climate change effects. It examines the links between climate risks and sustainable growth, emphasising the economic challenges the country faces on its path to upper-middle-income status by 2040. Without urgent action, climate change could drive income losses for up to 80 percent of the poorest households, reduce labour productivity, damage infrastructure, and cause significant GDP losses by 2050.
The report calls for integrating climate action across all sectors, strengthening disaster risk management, unlocking climate finance, and catalysing private sector participation. It identifies investment opportunities in climate-smart agriculture, renewable energy, solar-powered irrigation, nature-based carbon solutions, green construction, and electric mobility. Mobilising the estimated $28.1 billion needed for Uganda’s national climate plan will require strong private sector engagement.
CCDR for Uganda
The CCDR highlights that without urgent action, climate change could drive income losses for up to 80 percent of the poorest households, reduce labour productivity, damage infrastructure, and cause significant GDP losses by 2050.