The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has warned that five to eight more tropical cyclones are expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before the end of the year.
PAGASA-Visayas Chief, Engr. Al Quiblat, said during the Openline Forum yesterday that the projection is based on the long-range forecast presented in the September 24 Climate Forum.
‘For the month of October, we are expecting two to four tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Paolo, the 16th tropical cyclone of the year and the first for October, has already passed. This means there may still be up to three more this month,’ Quiblat said.
He added that based on tropical cyclone threat potential, weather models show a possibility of two low-pressure areas (LPAs) entering the PAR between week 1 and week 2 of October.
Although the likelihood of these systems intensifying into tropical cyclones remains low at the moment, PAGASA is closely monitoring their development.
Quiblat explained that ocean conditions near the Philippines, particularly in the western Pacific, remain active and dynamic due to a 71 percent chance of a looming La Niña.
‘This could change the development of weather disturbances,’ he said as he urged the public to stay updated on the intensity and movement of any potential cyclone.
For November, PAGASA has forecasted two to three tropical cyclones, and for December, one to two. Historical data also showed that from November to December, there is a 60 to 70 percent chance that tropical cyclones may track toward the Visayas region.
‘These cyclones that develop toward the end of the year tend to be landfalling systems,’ Quiblat noted, citing PAGASA’s climatological records.
PAGASA continued to remind the public to monitor weather updates, especially as the country enters the peak of the typhoon season.
PAGASA tropical cyclone names for 2025 are Auring, Bising, Crising, Dante, Emong, Fabian, Gorio, Huaning, Isang, Jacinto, Kiko, Lannie, Mirasol, Nando, Opong, Paolo, Quedan, Ramil, Salome, Tino, Uwan, Verbena, Wilma, Yasmin, Zoraida.
While the auxiliary names used if cyclones exceed 25 in a season will be Alamid, Bruno, Conching, Dolor, Ernie, Florante, Gerardo, Hernan, Isko, and Jerome.