Demographic shift: Reckoning with the onset of a growing aging society

IT took only two decades before couples in the Philippines realized it was better-economically-to ‘live in sin’ than have a union blessed by religion, in the only predominantly Catholic country in Asia.

This is among the reasons cited by a 27-year-old male worker in a shared service company, who requested anonymity. He told BusinessMirror he has been ‘living in’ with his partner for the past five years in a rented place in Metro Manila. His partner, who’s in her early 30s and has two teenage children from a previous relationship, works from their home as a virtual assistant.

Although there has been pressure from family and even social media to get hitched, he said, this has never come between them because while they understand Pinoy culture, they are still happy the way things are.

‘The main reason is money. We are not that prepared for the cost. Although there are options when it comes to weddings now that are cheaper, we are not in a hurry because we are at this point that we are living in, and we are not looking for anything else,’ he said in the vernacular in a phone interview.

Apart from economics, however, there are other reasons. He explained that it may have something to do with their backgrounds. His partner’s previous relationship did not work out that well, and he comes from a broken family. This background is creating some hesitation for them about getting married.

If it doesn’t work out in the end, it would not only be a drain on financial resources but also on emotions. He noted that there is still no divorce law in the Philippines, while an annulment can be expensive.

He also told BusinessMirror that timing is crucial. He said both of them are looking out for their mental health, and so the right timing to get married is something they have to be certain about.

‘We are open-minded when it comes to those things [living together], especially because our generation is more open about those conversations. Unlike before, when you needed to get married immediately.

‘Our generation’s mindset is different from past generations that believed that even slightly touching a woman was reason enough for a man to marry her. Now, you don’t have to. Partners are now more open-minded, and living together no longer requires a wedding. You can live together without the paper,’ he explained, partly in Filipino.

These opinions are supported by data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), which showed that, based on the 2020 Census of Population and Housing, there were 12.66 million men and women who were common-law partners or in live-in arrangements nationwide.

This quadrupled from the year 2000, when there were only 3.06 million men and women who were cohabiting with their partners. This means that there is a yearly double-digit growth over a period of 20 years.

The 2022 National Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) revealed that 19 percent of women are cohabiting with their partners. According to the NDHS report, this is a significant increase from only 5 percent in 1993.

‘Women and couples are delaying getting married, delaying having children. But they still say they want to have children. For me, this is what is very important for the government to provide information to help these couples make decisions. So, how long will you delay these kinds of decisions? We should be providing guidance,’ Commission on Population and Development Executive Director Lisa Grace Bersales said in a recent forum.

‘And so delaying marriage, cohabitation is on the rise. The latest report of the PSA shows that registration of marriages is declining. The National Demographic Health Survey in 2022 already showed cohabitation is on the rise,’ she also said.

Bigger shifts

COHABITATION is just one of the many demographic changes in the country. The significant change brought by delaying marriage and having children has led to a decline in the country’s fertility rate.

In the NDHS 2022, the PSA noted that the total fertility rate (TFR) of Filipino women aged 15- to 49 now stands at 1.9 children, which is below the 2.1 percent replacement rate needed to sustain population growth.

PSA also explained that the NDHS survey showed the Philippines’ TFR has been on a downward trend since the 1970s, when it was at 6 children per woman. However, the decline from 2017 to 2022 was the sharpest ever recorded.

The same survey revealed that 1 in 2 currently married women said they no longer desire more children, while 17 percent want to delay their next childbirth for 2 or more years.

‘In the past, if a maritime captain invited 10 women to an event, and he said, ‘Bring all your children with you,’ he would have to prepare for 10 women plus 60 children. So, 70 people. Based on 2022, if he invites 10 women, he or she will have to prepare for 10 plus 19 [kids]. So, 29 guests only,’ Bersales explained, in layman’s terms, the 1.9 children TFR.

When the data was released, Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said this is still good news even though it could present a demographic problem, particularly on the aging population. He considered aging a more manageable problem compared to a population boom.

Balisacan said the slower fertility rate presents opportunities to grow the economy and reduce the number of poor Filipinos, whereas a population boom would complicate poverty reduction efforts.

He also explained that with lower fertility rates, Filipino families will have more opportunities to move up the income ladder with fewer family members to support.

Furthermore, a decrease in the fertility rate is a prerequisite to attaining the maximum benefits of the demographic dividend, which could ensure all working-age individuals secure decent jobs.

But the delay in marriage and childbearing, as well as cohabitation, are also changing Filipino living arrangements. Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) Senior Research Fellow Jose Ramon Albert told BusinessMirror that such changes are leaving many seniors to fend for themselves.

‘Of course, we keep saying, we have this demographic dividend. The reality, however, is that it is dual. You have a young population, but at the same time, it’s also aging. So, this becomes a constraint in a way. But the harder part is, when you think of aging, how are our ideas of living together changing?’ Albert said in an interview.

Ageing

BASED on a study Albert conducted with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the change in seniors’ living arrangements is a ‘blind spot’ that is changing Philippine society as we know it. The family is one of the institutions of a society, and in the country, this means not just the immediate family of a mother, father, and children, but also grandparents.

In an ADB Economics Worker Paper published in July 2025, the Philippines remains in the ‘early-transition stage’ of a demographic shift. But its older population is growing and is expected to reach 10 percent of the population by 2066. The share of the ‘oldest old’ or those Filipinos aged 80 and over is expected to increase to 12.66 percent by 2050.

This growing trend in the number of older Filipinos will have an impact on labor force shortages and a decline in the working-age population. The paper said this will lead to a higher old-age dependency ratio (OADR), which is the ratio of ‘older dependents, 65 years of age and above, to the working-age population.’

‘There is an observed increase in the ratio from 2016, which signifies a demographic shift. This marks the growth in the population of older people relative to the working-age population. By 2050, the OADR of the Philippines is expected to rise to approximately 16, which means that, for every 100 working-age individuals, there will be around 16 older people,’ the paper stated.

This is crucial, since the ADB working paper noted that those 80 years old and above are already prone to cancers, given that the incidence ‘doubled over the past 30 years and is expected to increase through 2050.’

This can be a heavy burden for the government, considering the limited fiscal space available to provide social protection and other basic services such as health care.

Albert noted there are also targeting issues when it comes to these programs. This creates leakages that drain public funds and must be plugged to provide fiscal space for other programs, such as support for the elderly.

Given these challenges, families are stepping up, especially solo children. Albert said the problem is also reflective of the reality that they, too, will age someday.

He said the solution is to be more conscious in growing their personal savings. He added that there must be some incentives given to single individuals to encourage them to save for their own needs in their twilight years.

He added that part of what complicates the problem is the low participation of women in the labor force. Albert said the ‘Cro-Magnon’ man mentality that a woman’s place is in the home should be reconsidered in the context of aging.

‘If you think about it, harnessing human capital means really making use of whatever you have. But all those gendered perspectives are what also make it more difficult. I mean, as I said, things are changing,’ Albert said.

Albert said technology can help encourage savings and investments among younger individuals. But he admitted that the ‘crystal ball’ remains cloudy when it comes to resolving these issues.

Policy and research

IN Bersales’s view, research must be conducted to craft better policies to support the demographic changes in the country. The CPD said this is now being accomplished through the Population and Development Plan of Action and the population and development (PopDev) research agenda.

She cited a need to study further the NDHS and to identify emerging determinants of fertility behaviors, family planning among unmarried women, and a projection of fertility levels.

Existing policies, such as the Responsible Parenthood and Family Planning Law of 2012, also need to be evaluated to determine how it has helped or not the state of family planning in the country.

Bersales said there have to be studies or research on the dynamics of parent-child education and sexuality-related concerns, as well as research done on pregnancies among children.

She added that certain strategic areas need more attention to accelerate inclusive development among marginalized sectors of the population.

Studies on Indigenous Peoples and Persons with Disability should be included in these research tasks.

These are just some of the tasks at hand. Much more needs to be done if the country is to manage and benefit from these demographic shifts. Change is here, and more are on their way.

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