THE Bureau of Customs (BOC) collected P80.102 billion in revenues in September, higher than last year’s level but still below the target for the month, a matter experts view as reflecting the impact of issues clutching global trade.
Preliminary data from the BOC showed collections grew by 5 percent to P80.102 billion in September from P76.282 billion during the same month a year ago.
The BOC said the revenue growth was driven by the higher valuation of non-oil imports, which cushioned the adverse effects of weaker import volumes and drop in oil price index.
Higher collections came even as several ports experienced operational challenges during the month due to suspensions of work caused by inclement weather, the BOC added.
Despite the revenue growth, the BOC fell short by 4.18 percent, or P3.494 billion, of the P83.596 billion goal.
‘[The collection] reflects resilience despite weak volumes and lower oil prices. However, falling short of its target signals underlying vulnerabilities tied to trade deceleration and global tariff disruptions,’ John Paolo R. Rivera, senior research fellow at state-run think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies, told the BusinessMirror.
The tariff wars, expectations of dumping and the extension of rice import ban pose as significant threats to the BOC in meeting its full-year target of P958.714 billion, according to Ateneo de Manila University Economist Leonardo A. Lanzona.
This year’s target is 4.5 percent higher than the BOC’s actual collection of P916.674 billion in 2024.
Lanzona told the BusinessMirror that the expected dumping of goods to the Philippines by various countries due to tariff wars will create massive uncertainty in global trade flows.
‘While dumping could theoretically increase import volumes, it often leads to trade defense measures (like anti-dumping duties) and market chaos that can disrupt predictable trade patterns, making forecasting and collection volatile,’ he explained.
As the United States imposed higher tariffs on other countries, Lanzona said global trade could be rerouted, with diverted goods flowing into the Philippines, boosting supply, driving down prices and affecting import valuations.
‘Alternatively, it could disrupt supply chains for Philippine manufacturers, reducing their need to import raw materials,’ noted the economist.
Moreover, the extension of the rice import ban is a ‘direct hit’ to the BOC’s collections, since rice imports are a crucial source of the tariff revenues.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. has said the government will extend the ban on rice importation until the end of 2025 and allow imports only in January 2026 to stabilize supply in time for the dry season harvest.
‘Extending the ban removes a reliable revenue stream, especially during the crucial fourth quarter period,’ Lanzona told the BusinessMirror. From January to September, the BOC has collected P701.489 billion. This, however, is also short of the P711.820 billion target by 1.45 percent or P10.331 billion.
With this performance, PIDS’s Rivera said hitting the full-year target remains feasible for the BOC, but could be challenging.
However, Lanzona said the BOC will likely fall short of the target, but it may still post a respectable year-on-year growth figure.
‘They might end the year in the range of P940 – P950 billion. This would still be a significant achievement given the circumstances, but it would officially be a miss against their stated goal,’ he added.
To have any chance, Lanzona said the BOC would need to see a year-end surge in high-value imports and intensify its anti-smuggling and correct valuation campaigns to their maximum potential. ‘The odds, however, are stacked against them.’
‘To stay on track, the BOC must optimize valuation systems, strengthen post-clearance audits, and enhance anti-smuggling operations to offset volume-related declines,’ Rivera said.