The Super Eagles of Nigeria face a must-win situation as they take on Lesotho this evening in a crucial 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifier in South Africa.
Nigeria’s hopes of reaching the tournament – to be hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico – appeared dim after a 1-1 draw against South Africa in their previous match.
However, a recent decision by FIFA to deduct three points from South Africa for misconduct has reopened the qualification race.
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Following the deduction, both Benin Republic and South Africa sit on 14 points ahead of today’s fixtures, giving Nigeria a renewed chance to fight for top spot in Group C.
The Super Eagles must defeat Lesotho to keep their hopes alive, while also relying on favourable results from other fixtures – particularly Zimbabwe vs South Africa and Rwanda vs Benin. The outcome of these matches will determine whether Nigeria’s final group game against Benin on October 14 becomes a decisive one.
There remains a narrow alternative route through the playoff stage. Under CAF’s format, only the nine group winners qualify automatically for the World Cup. The four best runners-up across all groups will then contest a playoff for a possible spot.
However, that route looks difficult for Nigeria. The current fourth-best runner-up, Burkina Faso, have 15 points, with Cameroon, Namibia, and Uganda also on 15 – four points ahead of Nigeria, who have two games remaining.
To stand any realistic chance, the Super Eagles must win both remaining matches and hope results elsewhere work in their favour. Otherwise, Nigeria risk missing out on football’s biggest stage for the second consecutive time.