Thai gold traders are warning investors to shop wisely after bullion surged for the eighth consecutive week, buoyed by renewed fears of a US-China trade war, the ongoing US government shutdown and increased prospects of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
Gold prices moved past $4,100 an ounce to a fresh record high on Tuesday, bolstered by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, rate-cut expectations, strong central bank buying and robust exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows.
The local price soared by 1,150 baht per baht-weight (15.2 grammes) in early morning trade on Tuesday. After nearly 30 price adjustments, gold bar was quoted at a record high of 64,200 baht, according to the Gold Traders Association, which described the rally as ‘a new all-time high almost every day’.
The online gold trader Intergold cautioned the rapid ascent could spark short-term profit-taking.
However, investor enthusiasm remains strong, underscoring gold’s role as a popular asset in times of political and market turbulence.
The company forecasts a short-term target of $4,200 per ounce and a long-term goal of $5,000, which could lift Thai gold to 70,000 baht by 2026.
Intergold suggests short-term traders gradually lock in profits, while long-term investors may accumulate on dips of $50-100 in the world price.
Safe-haven demand
The latest rally was triggered by renewed tension between Washington and Beijing after US President Donald Trump announced a 100% import tariff on Chinese goods, effective Nov 1, with a possible expansion to include ‘all critical software’.
The move was in retaliation for China’s export controls on rare earth minerals, which are vital for industries such as electric vehicles, defence and semiconductors, markets where China dominates roughly 70% of global supply.
Within hours of Trump’s announcement, US equities lost more than $2 trillion in market value, amplifying global risk aversion. China condemned the move as ‘deceptive and hypocritical’, arguing its measures were for national security, not economic leverage.
Analysts believe Beijing’s restrained reaction could suggest room for renewed dialogue, though investors remain cautious ahead of an expected Trump-Xi Jinping summit later this month.
Meanwhile, the US government shutdown has entered its third week, with no signs of progress in Congress.
Trump is using the impasse to push for deep budget cuts to Democrat-backed social programmes, further rattling market confidence.
The Office of Management and Budget said it has begun formal ‘Reduction in Force’ procedures, with potential layoffs across key federal agencies.
Investors are monitoring the debate over the Republican budget proposal to seek clarity on fiscal policy.
The market now expects a 99% chance of a 25-basis-point cut to the policy interest rate by the Fed in October, and a 94% likelihood of another 25bps cut in December. Non-yielding gold tends to do well during period of low interest rates.
The World Gold Council reported that gold ETFs attracted 619 tonnes of inflows during the first nine months of 2025, lifting total holdings to 3,838 tonnes, 2% below the record high set in 2020.
The rebound, following four years of outflows, signals a strong return of investor confidence.
Analysts expect ETF holdings to surpass 4,000 tonnes by year-end for the first time in history, reinforcing bullish momentum.
Momentum persists
The Bangkok-based gold trader Hua Seng Heng anticipates prices will continue rising, testing $4,160 an ounce before easing in later stages.
Support is estimated at $4,115 before returning to a new round of price increases, its researchers wrote.
‘If the price falls below $4,100, a short-term price consolidation could be expected,’ they said.
Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, foresees prices hitting $6,000 next year, according to Hua Seng Heng.
The outlook for gold remains decisively bullish, supported by macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tension and persistent ETF inflows.
Yet investors should maintain discipline, manage risk carefully, and resist greed as even the brightest bull runs can invite sharp corrections, say analysts.