Bangladesh is facing mounting economic and health risks from rising temperatures, driven by unplanned urbanization and pollution.
a World Bank report estimates annual losses of Tk 2.1 trillion from lost productivity and illness, with 250 million workdays lost in 2024 alone. Dhaka’s temperature has risen sharply, worsened by vanishing wetlands and reckless development.
experts warn that weak governance and a lack of enforcement of environmental policies are deepening the crisis.
they say solutions are within reach, but these require political will. Civil society and citizens must demand accountability, especially in the run-up to national elections.The discussion that Dhaka is fast turning into a ‘heat chamber’ is nothing new. But experts argue that this is not only due to global climate change-it is largely the result of unplanned urbanization. Urban planners and environmentalists have been warning about this for years, but their concerns have mostly gone unheeded.
a recent World Bank report has revealed even more alarming facts-enough to cause real concern.
according to the report, Bangladesh suffers an annual financial loss of around Tk 2.1 trillion due to rising temperatures. Meanwhile, a scientific study on European countries recently reported that heat-related deaths there reached 16,500.
the World Bank highlighted Bangladesh’s financial losses caused by lost work hours and health problems, but it did not focus on heatrelated deaths.
to date, no central study in Bangladesh has examined this issue either. The World Bank’s analysis shows that since 1980, Bangladesh’s maximum temperature has risen by 1.1°C, while the ‘felt heat’ has increased by 4.5°C.
in Dhaka, the rise is even greater-1.4°C, which is 65% higher than the national average.
as a result, diseases such as diarrhea, chronic cough, respiratory problems, and extreme fatigue have increased. By heat impact, Bangladesh now ranks second in the world.
in 2024 alone, around 250 million workdays were lost due to heat. Dhaka University professor Dr.
abdus Salam, through several studies, has shown a link between rising temperatures and pollution. He points to harmful gases- particularly black carbon, carbon dioxide, and methane-as major contributors to Dhaka’s heating. Speaking to Energy and Power, he noted that Bangladesh could follow Beijing’s example, where black carbon was once a major contributor to air pollution. With proper planning and implementation, Beijing managed to reduce black carbon levels to 2-12 µg/ m³, while in Dhaka, the levels remain between 40-50 µg/m³. Simply shifting to higher-quality fuel could substantially reduce black carbon pollution. Similarly, proper waste management initiatives could help curb methane emissions. Yet, the government has avoided such measures under various pretexts.
if adopted, these actions could slow the pace of rising temperatures in Dhaka. World Bank Senior Operations Officer and co-author of the report, Iffat Mahmud, explained: ‘Our analysis shows that extreme heat increases health risks, and at the same time, directly reduces productivity. Like many other countries, Bangladesh faces real risks of losing both human capital and productivity.’ Meanwhile, Zakir Hossain Khan, CEO of Change Initiative, highlighted findings from their recent study ‘Dhaka: Without Nature.’ Speaking to Energy and Power, he stated that over the past 40 years, Dhaka’s temperature has risen by 4.5°C.
as a result, Dhaka has already become nearly uninhabitable. He blamed the destruction of green belts, filling of water bodies, and building practices that block natural airflow-all driven by reckless urban development. Yet, politicians, bureaucrats, and civil society remain inactive in addressing the crisis. Productivity Loss and Seasonal Impacts The World Bank survey found that, due to physical illness, people on average lose workdays every year. During summer, the loss is 1.4 days, while in winter it is 1.2 days. Workdays lost due to mental health issues are even higher-1.9 days in winter and 2.3 days in summer.
the survey did not find significant differences between urban and rural areas. Men Lose More Work Hours On average, men lost more workdays than women due to physical and mental health problems.
among different age groups, people aged 36-49 were the most affected, losing 1.7 days in summer and 1.4 days in winter due to physical illness.
they also lost 2.5 days in summer and 2 days in winter due to mental health problems. For people aged 50 and above, seasonal variation was less significant. By contrast, those aged 16-35 lost an average of 1.1 days in summer due to physical illness and 2.2 days due to mental health issues- much higher than in winter. Hardship for the Working Poor The survey also revealed differences in lost work hours by income group.
the lowestincome workers lost an average of 1.7 days in summer and 1.5 days in winter, while wealthier people lost 1.1 days in summer and 0.8 days in winter. For mental health-related work loss, summer rates were nearly the same across all income groups, but in winter, wealthier people were less affected compared to the poor. Work Loss by Type of Occupation Analysis shows that unskilled workers suffered the most work loss due to physical illness, 1.8 days in summer and 1.7 days in winter. Skilled workers lost the most workdays due to mental health issues in summer (2.9 days), while office employees experienced the least loss (2.2 days). Causes of Rising Temperature The main reasons behind rising temperatures are unplanned and rapid urbanization and pollution. With the growing population, Bangladesh is urbanizing quickly, but with no sign of planning. Professor Abdus Salam argues that the core drivers of rising temperatures are precisely this unplanned urbanization and pollution.
the picture is the same in Dhaka and elsewhere in the country.
in particular, building designs in the capital rarely take advantage of natural cooling opportunities.
as a result, once completed, the buildings become ‘heat boxes.’ To cool them down, air conditioning is used, which in turn contributes to higher outside temperatures. Citing Professor Syed Abdul Hamid of Dhaka University’s Health Economics Unit, a Prothom Alo report notes that the World Bank’s study is highly significant as it highlights a new dimension of the impacts of rising heat.
illness caused by heat already reduces work hours. Beyond that, people without electric fans buy them, and those without air conditioners buy AC units. While this may show up as a positive impact on GDP, in the long run, the negative impact is greater.
this is because far more work hours are lost due to illness and fatigue.
and this is true not just for laborers, but across all professions. Link between Temperature and Productivity Loss Research shows that extreme temperatures directly reduce human work capacity. In the 30 days before the survey, when temperatures ranged between 35°C and 37°C, people lost an extra 0.8 workdays due to physical and mental illness. When temperatures rose above 37°C, work loss increased further-an additional 1.4 days lost compared to days below 30°C.
older People Lose More Workdays The study found variation in work loss across age groups. People aged 36-49 reported losing an average of 2.5 days, while those aged 50-64 lost 2.1 days. This is much higher than the rate among people aged 16-25.
although there were no major gender differences, productivity loss was much greater among people with disabilities, who, on average, lost an additional 6.3 workdays. Non-Communicable Diseases Add to Work Loss Non-communicable diseases also emerged as a major cause of lost work. Heart patients lost an average of 4.7 days, while those with chronic lung disease lost 3.9 days. People with diabetes, high blood pressure, and kidney problems lost an additional 1.9, 2.5, and 1.9 days, respectively.
on the other hand, people who spent more time indoors lost an average of 0.12 fewer days compared to those who spent more time outdoors. Less Educated Workers Face More Problems Education level is also linked to productivity loss. People with education beyond secondary school lost an average of 3.8 fewer days than those with no formal education. Clear differences were also observed by income and occupation. Compared to lower-income groups, middle-income people lost 1.6 fewer days, and higher-income groups lost 2.9 fewer days. Workers in higher-skilled professions lost 3.1 fewer days than low-skilled wage laborers.
urban residents were more affected than rural residents.
on average, city dwellers lost 1.4 more days due to physical or mental health problems. Green Disappearing, Dhaka Facing Disaster In the capital, surface temperatures rose by more than 9°C on average over three decades (1990-2020). However, in areas where wetlands still exist, the rate oftemperature rise has been relatively lower. During the same period, Dhaka lost 69% of its wetlands.
if the current pace of decline continues, 90% of wetlands will vanish by 2050, pushing the city’s temperature even higher.
this picture emerges from a study on surface temperatures, wetland conditions, and area-specific temperature trends in Dhaka over the past three decades.
the study, titled ‘Development at the Cost of Unsustainable Degradation of Wetlands: Unravelling the Dynamics (Historic and Future) of Wetlands in the Megacity Dhaka,’ was published in March in the journal World Development Sustainability. The research was conducted by a team from the University of Glasgow (UK) and Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University. Why is this happening? It is not only temperature rise or air pollution-Bangladesh actually has very good and commendable policies in almost every sector. But over the past four decades, proper implementation of these policies has rarely been seen.
instead, a culture of bypassing laws and policies has become stronger. Civil society and environmental groups have spoken about these issues, but they have failed to build enough public support to pressure the government.
as a result, unplanned urbanization in defiance of regulations has become the norm.
those profiting from destroying the environment and ecosystem have never been stopped by the state or government. At times, networks of politicians, bureaucrats, and businessmen have even worked to serve their own interests.
as a result, despite heavy investment in projects to reduce air pollution, curb temperature rise, or promote sustainable urbanization, no real benefits are visible.
each year, institutions like the World Bank publish studies about Bangladesh. These generate media discussion for a few days, but in reality, they fail to shake policymakers into action.
as Professor Dr. Salam has analyzed, we have turned every city, including Dhaka, into a greenhouse, and then rely on cooling systems to keep them livable. But in truth, these systems contribute to air pollution and further temperature rise.
on top of this, there is no doubt that global warming is also playing a role.
as mentioned earlier, rising temperatures in Europe have already caused the deaths of 16,500 people. No survey has been conducted to determine the toll in Bangladesh, but there is no doubt that environmental pollution and rising temperatures here are also causing premature deaths. Conclusion On the issue of global warming, Bangladesh bears no responsibility. Nor does it have any binding obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, the country has submitted its finalized NDC 3.0 (Nationally Determined Contribution) to the UNFCCC, pledging both conditional and unconditional targets. Bangladesh has announced that by 2035 it will invest $116 billion to reduce about 85 million tonnes of carbon emissions. Bangladesh has already earned international recognition for its climate actions through domestic investment. Under NDC 2.0, it had pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 6.73% through its own investment, but it has achieved nearly 9%. Bangladesh has also done well in contributing to the global target of doubling energy efficiency-over the past three years, it has saved about 3% energy annually through efficient use, while the target was 1.5% per year.
the crisis, however, lies in governance. Due to poor governance, Bangladesh has failed to succeed in curbing temperature rise, reducing air pollution, and related issues. From 1980 until now, the country’s temperature has increased by 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius. According to a recent World Bank study, this results in an annual loss of about Tk 21,000 crore.
these losses come from reduced work hours, health risks, and other impacts. Globally, Bangladesh ranks second in terms of heat-related impacts.
the World Bank also reports that the country loses about 250 million workdays annually due to heat stress. Their study further shows that between 1990 and 2020, Dhaka’s surface temperature rose by 9°C, while wetlands decreased by 69%. If this trend continues, 90% of wetlands will disappear by 2050, accelerating the temperature rise even further. But that is not the end of the problem. Rising temperatures increase the demand for cooling, which in turn raises electricity consumption.
this leads to greater use of fuels. Currently, 98% of Bangladesh’s electricity is still generated from fossil fuels. Increased generation means more fossil fuel use, which raises carbon dioxide emissions, contributing to air pollution.
alongside this, greenhouse gases, fine particulate matter, and black carbon in the air are also rising- further fueling temperature increase. Experts believe that in Bangladesh, rising temperatures and air pollution are closely linked and must be addressed together.
the Department of Environment currently has air pollution control projects underway, but greater coordination is needed.
experts also note that unplanned urbanization is the single largest contributor to rising temperatures in Bangladesh. Yet, there are already adequate laws and policies to stop it, along with authorities empowered to enforce them. What is lacking is the necessary political commitment to take action. Therefore, without political will, there is no alternative for controlling air pollution and curbing rising temperatures.
it is crucial to build pressure on politicians. Ahead of the upcoming national election, every citizen must take responsibility to hold political parties accountable. Civil society and environmental groups must lead in mobilizing citizens. Protecting the environment and ecosystem is essential to safeguarding lives and livelihoods, and taking action to curb temperature rise is part of that responsibility. For Bangladesh’s survival, there is no alternative but to act.
otherwise, the silent killers of ‘rising temperature and polluted air’ will become the biggest barriers to the nation’s progress. Therefore, without wasting another day, Bangladesh needs an immediate, unified national initiative to begin comprehensive planning and implementation.