The People’s Party (PP), a progressive party in Thai politics, secured a small victory in parliament this week, with its charter rewriting draft becoming the primary legislation for constitutional amendment.
Despite this, the struggle continues.
The PP and the two other main parties, Bhumjaithai (BJT) and Pheu Thai, all have their own bill, with the main focus on revising Section 256 in the current junta-sponsored charter.
The change to this section is necessary to pave the way for establishing a Charter Drafting Assembly (CDA), which will serve as charter rewriters. Needless to say, each party wants to have a say in the new CDA so as to set a fresh political direction.
During the two-day deliberations, we hardly saw coordinated efforts toward a better charter or reconciliation. Instead, we witnessed a new twist in political polarisation, this time with Pheu Thai and the PP doing a kiss-and-make-up, while the BJT was isolated on the other side.
Initially, BJT joined hands with the Senate, shooting down Pheu Thai’s bill. This prompted Pheu Thai to make a U-turn and give full support to the PP’s draft, helping this draft garner 300 votes in support, while BJT’s draft received 287 votes.
In theory, the BJT should have collaborated with PP, given the latter’s support for its leader Anutin Charnvirakul’s premiership bid while leaving Pheu Thai in the cold.
But in practice, such alignments are short-term, and the two parties have engaged in fierce competition when it comes to charter rewriting that may reset the country’s politics. This confirms what I said previously in this column: BJT, which massively benefits from the current charter that allows its networks to thrive in independent agencies, is reluctant, or not willing, to have a new charter.
Yet, BJT must align with PP because the MOA it signed with the progressive party obliges the Auntin government to support the charter amendment. So keep an eye on the subsequent political manoeuvring.
BJT has remained confident and has kept its cool, nevertheless. After all, the Upper House will determine the direction and destiny of this charter amendment. It is believed that the so-called senators in the blue camp will make or break the bill in the final stage. Constitutional amendments require support from an absolute majority of the joint parliament plus at least one-third of the senators. It is believed and widely reported that the so-called blue-camp senators make up almost 75% of the 200-seat Senate.
The question is: What benefits can voters and citizens expect from the CDA?
In its draft, the BJT proposed that the CDA selection would follow a similar format to the 2007 charter — the parliament would select the CDA, comprising provincial representatives and experts from various fields. This draft is believed to play into the hands of the BJP, given its strong alignment with the Senate and independent agencies.
The PP’s draft, similar to Pheu Thai’s version, proposes a CDA comprising 35 members selected by parliament from 70 public-elected candidates and a 100-member advisory council chosen directly from constituencies across all provinces. In short, it advocates direct election. If their version is adopted, voters will select experts to help write the constitution, the supreme law governing the country’s legal basis.
Another crucial matter is that BJT’s draft will prohibit the amendment of Sections 1 and 2 of the charter, which outline the country’s sovereignty as an undivided kingdom and its royal prerogatives. The PP’s version, meanwhile, leaves this matter open, without mentioning whether they would be amending the two crucial sections or not.
The next move will be tense, with regard to the composition of the 43-member House panel tasked with charter rewriting, which, at 24:19, sees little difference in their force. BJT and the senators have fewer votes than a grouping of PP and Pheu Thai, which also includes minor parties in its camp. The panel will have to wrap up its work around mid-December to accord with political timelines.
Watch for a few political machinations that will unravel in the weeks to come.
As sure as the sun rises, the BJT will utilise all its might and resources to ensure that Section 256 is fixed in a way that the CDA is formed in its favour, thereby ensuring maximal dominance of its alliance and networks.
If not, the senators in the blue camp, as earlier mentioned, may exercise their power and sink the bill in the third reading; or they may request the charter court to step in and rule against the move, citing the court ruling that prohibits direct CDA election or against the PP’s option to leave open the change to lese majeste law.
And in case the party fails, it will have to campaign against the charter amendment so that it is crossed out in the referendum, set to take place on March 29. Lastly, Mr Anutin, if necessary, may seek to dissolve the House while the bill is being vetted. In doing so, the whole process will be further delayed. And it will depend on the next government whether it will pick it up. It has two months to make a decision on this.
The last option is highly likely. This scenario predicts Pheu Thai will seek a no-confidence motion in December in its attempt to shore up its popularity, which has gone downhill. Indeed, political news reporters have started filing stories about the party planning to launch a no-confidence vote.
If that is the case, Mr Anutin will not be able to afford to face such a motion, and House dissolution is his only option. According to the law, if Mr Anutin chooses this option, he must do it before Pheu Thai submits the motion.
In that case, it would be unfortunate. All law scrutiny, including the current charter rewriting, will automatically stop, which is not good for the public as a whole. After all, this country needs a better charter that provides better rules so that it can get out of its current political conundrum.
The civic sector and the public at large must keep a close watch on the process to prevent any foul play that may derail the charter rewriting effort.