The Electoral Commission today nominates parliamentary candidates across the country, with several constituencies earmarked as political hotspots.
The broader political shifts and tense contests will be in the Buganda region, where the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party has struggled to maintain its former political dominance. During the 2021 General Election, several long-standing NRM strongholds fell to Opposition candidates, particularly from NUP. Of the 78 directly elected MPs in the central region, the NRM managed to win only 23 seats.
Among the 27 districts that make up Buganda, the NRM secured victories in just nine for the District Woman MP seats, successfully defending only 32 seats overall, while NUP captured 55 seats, underscoring the region’s changing political landscape. Among the hotspots is Sembabule District in central Uganda – a traditional stronghold of the NRM party that has recently witnessed a rising tide of Opposition turbulence. Among the flashpoint constituencies are Lwemiyaga, Mawogola North, and Mawogola West, where familiar political heavyweights and new entrants are battling for supremacy.
Lwemiyaga County
In Lwemiyaga County, the race for the parliamentary seat has attracted five aspirants, including the long-serving incumbent, Mr Theodore Ssekikubo, who has been a permanent face of the area since 2001. This time, however, Mr Ssekikubo is contesting as an Independent candidate after he was elbowed out in the NRM party primaries by a newcomer and military veteran, Brig (rtd) Emmanuel Rwashande.
Other contenders jostling in the race are Ms Joy Kafura Kabatsi, a former State minister for Transport; Mr Isaac Museveni Tumusiime of the National Unity Platform (NUP) party; and Mr Joseph Migadde Amooti, another Independent runner. Mr Ssekikubo, 56, remains a formidable political figure in the constituency and maintains he was unfairly edged out in the NRM party primaries. ‘I did not lose – I was simply rigged out during the primaries,’ he told this publication.
Mawogola North County
In Mawogola North, the contest is shaping into a three-way race involving Mr Eddie Ssemanda (NUP) party, Mr Jet Tumwebaze (Ind), and President Museveni’s younger brother, Mr Sodo Aine Kaguta, who holds the NRM flag. Mr Sodo was declared the party flagbearer without a primary contest after the incumbent MP Shartis Kuteesa, the daughter of former Foreign Affairs minister Sam Kuteesa, stepped aside in his favour. But his rival, Mr Tumwebaze, insists the process was unfair.
‘We had no primaries in Mawogola North, so no one should claim to hold the party flag. I am also of the NRM, and let us leave it to the voters to decide,’ he said.
In areas where the NRM is dominant, the party’s primary winner often goes on to secure victory in the general election, making the Mawogola North contest particularly significant for both the ruling party candidate and challengers.
Mawogola West County
In Mawogola West, the State minister for Health (General Duties), Ms Hanifah Kawooya, the incumbent, is facing stiff competition from Mr Muhammad Mawanda (NUP), and independents Charles Turyatemba, Brait Twesigye, and Asiraf Mwebaze. Ms Kawooya had served as Sembabule District Woman MP for two decades before crossing to Mawogola West, but remains a key figure in the politics of the area. Sembabule District, part of Uganda’s cattle corridor, has long been considered an NRM bastion. However, the NUP party made notable inroads during the 2021 General Election.
One of the most remarkable wins came in Mawogola South, where Ms Gorreti Namugga (NUP) defeated her NRM rivals to secure the seat. She is now seeking a second term and faces competition from Denis Ddumba (Ind) and Dezi Byuuma (NRM). In Mubende District, Kasambya County has emerged as a key hotspot after violent scenes played out during the recent NRM primaries.
The incumbent, Mr David Kabanda (NRM), who also serves as the Secretary of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), clinched victory in a chaotic primary election against Mr Henry Muhumuza, who has vowed to contest as an Independent candidate. The primaries were marred by violence, which left several supporters injured and property destroyed, including three vehicles and a motorcycle that were torched during clashes between rival camps. Another contender in the race is Peter Kyagera of NUP.
Mukono Municipality
In Mukono Municipality, incumbent Betty Nambooze (NUP) faces one of her toughest political battles yet as she seeks re-election in a crowded field of seven aspirants. Her challengers include Sarah Daisy Nabatanzi (NRM), George Kagimu (DP), Allan Mawanda of the Democratic Front (DF), Andrew Ssenyonga (Ind, NRM-leaning), the Rev Peter Bakaluba Mukasa (Ind) but NUP-leaning), and Sarah Nakintu (PFF). Ms Nambooze, a vocal legislator known for her activism and grassroots mobilisation, will have to fend off a mix of old political rivals and new entrants, all seeking to unseat her.
Mukono North
Mr Abdullah Kiwanuka (NUP), the incumbent, is seeking a second term for Mukono North constituency, where he faces off with former State minister for Water, Mr Ronald Kibuule (NRM). Other aspirants include Kenneth Nsubuga Ssebagayunga (DP) and Isaac Drasi (Ind). The 2021 General Election in Mukono North was marked by chaos, including reports of abductions of NUP supporters and heavy military deployment at the tally centre. The eventual announcement of results took several days.
Mawokota North
In Mpigi District, former Trade minister Amelia Kyambadde (NRM) is eyeing a political comeback in a constituency, where she faces the incumbent and musician Hilary Kiyaga, popularly known as Dr Hilderman of NUP, and Mr Andrew Ssentumbwe (Ind). Kyambadde, who once served as President Museveni’s principal private secretary before joining his Cabinet, but lost her seat in 2021 to Dr Hilderman. Her return sets the stage for a highly watched rematch between the ruling party and NUP.
Kyotera County
In Kyotera County, the State Minister for Microfinance, Mr Harunah Kasolo (NRM), is fighting to reclaim his former seat, which he lost in 2021 to Mr John Paul Mpalanyi (then DP, now NUP). The two will again face off, alongside Ms Annet Kaliisa (DP). Mr Mpalanyi, confident of retaining his seat, has dismissed Kasolo’s challenge. ‘I cannot have sleepless nights because of Mr Kasolo. He first expressed interest in Bukoto Central in Masaka District before returning to Kyotera, which is fine. My focus remains on delivering services to my people, and I am sure they appreciate my contribution,’ he said.
Mr Kasolo, who was recently elected NRM vice chairperson for Buganda Region, is also leading PLU mobilisation in the Masaka Sub-region, using both political platforms to strengthen his campaign machinery. In Mityana District, the political spotlight is once again on the Women’s Representative seat, where Lands Minister Judith Nabakooba (NRM) is seeking a comeback after losing to Joyce Bagala of the NUP party in 2021. Ms Nabakooba, who served one term between 2016 and 2021, is campaigning to reclaim her former seat, while Ms Bagala has opted to contest as an Independent this time. Unlike in 2021, when she carried the NUP flag, the party has instead endorsed Ms Proscovia Mukisa.
In Kayunga District, Bbaale County has emerged as a potential flashpoint. The NRM, which lost the constituency to NUP in 2021, is determined to reclaim it. The incumbent, Mr Charles Tebandeke (NUP), is seeking a second term but faces stiff competition from Mr Arthur Kizza (NRM). Other aspirants include Ronald Kyagaba (Ind) and Ronald Maiteki, a NUP-leaning Independent. Another hotspot in Kayunga is Ntenjeru South County, where incumbent Patrick Nsanja (NUP) is facing off once again with his long-time political rival, Mr Fred Baseke (NRM). Nsanja first defeated Baseke in 2016 and retained the seat in 2021, but Baseke has returned, determined to reclaim it.
Bunyoro Sub-region
In Buyanja County, Kibaale District, the Finance Minister, Mr Matia Kasaija who won the party primaries, is facing his political rival, Mr Kyalimpa Paul, who will be contesting as an Independent after he lost NRM party primaries. Mr Kasaija has been in active politics for more than a decade. In Buyaga East County, Mr Stephen Twesige Rulekele won NRM party primaries, beating the incumbent, Mr Musana Eric Acaali, who has been in Parliament for two terms.
Mr Musana has declared interests to be nominated as an Independent. The Buyaga West County incumbent, Mr Tinkasimiire Banabas, who has spent two decades in Parliament, lost to Mr Namara Denis in the NRM party primaries. However, he declared interest in contesting as an Independent. In Kakumiro District, in Bugangaizi East County, the incumbent Ms Aisha Agaba, lost to Mr Onesmus Twinamastiko in the NRM party primaries and has since shown interest in contesting as an Independent.