The upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) will be the first to take place in the Amazon, sending a powerful symbolic message about the central role developing economies must play in the global response to the climate crisis. But at a time of geopolitical fragmentation and low trust in multilateralism, symbolism is not enough. Developing economies must plan and propel the green transition. Africa is no exception. So far, Africa’s climate narrative has been one of victimhood: the continent contributes less than 4 percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions, but it is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
This disparity fuelled the calls for ‘climate justice’ that helped to produce ambitious climate-financing pledges from the industrialised economies at past COPs. But with those pledges going unfulfilled, and Africa’s climate-finance needs rising fast, moral appeals are clearly not enough. A shift to a more strategy-oriented discourse is already underway. The Second Africa Climate Summit (ACS2), which took place in Addis Ababa last month, positioned the continent as a united actor capable of shaping global climate negotiations. It also produced several initiatives, such as the Africa Climate Innovation Compact and the African Climate Facility, that promise to strengthen Africa’s position in efforts to ensure a sustainable future.
Instead of continuing to wait for aid, Africa is now seeking to attract investment in its green transition, not because rich countries ‘owe’ Africans – though they do – but rather because Africa can help the world tackle climate change. But success will require progress on four fronts, all of which will be addressed at COP30. The first is the cost of capital. Because systemic bias is embedded in credit-rating methodologies and global prudential rules, African countries face the world’s highest borrowing costs. This deters private capital, without which climate finance cannot flow at scale. While multilateral development banks (MDBs) can help to bridge the gap, they typically favour loans – which increase African countries’ already-formidable debt burdens – rather than grants.
The second area where progress is essential is carbon markets. Despite its huge potential for nature-based climate solutions, Africa captures only 16 percent of the global carbon-credit market. Moreover, the projects are largely underregulated and poorly priced, with limited community involvement. Africa is now at risk of falling into a familiar trap: supplying cheap offsets for external actors’ emissions, while reaping few benefits for its people. The third imperative for Africa at COP30 is to redefine adaptation. Rather than treating it primarily as a humanitarian project, governments must integrate adaptation into their industrial policies. After all, investment in climate-resilient agriculture, infrastructure, and water systems generates jobs, fosters innovation, and spurs market integration.
The final priority area for Africa at COP30 is critical minerals. Africa possesses roughly 85 percent of the world’s manganese, 80 percent of its platinum and chromium, 47 percent of its cobalt, 21 percent of its graphite, and 6 percent of its copper. In 2022, the Democratic Republic of the Congo alone accounted for more than 70 percent of global cobalt production. But Africa knows all too well that natural-resource wealth does not necessarily translate into economic growth and development. Only by building value chains on the continent can Africa avoid the ‘resource curse’ and ensure that its critical-mineral wealth generates local jobs and industries.
This imperative must be reflected in discussions within the Just Transition Work Programme at COP30. These four priorities are linked by a deeper philosophical imperative. The extractive logic of the past – in which industrialisation depended on exploitation and destruction – must give way to a more holistic, just, and balanced approach, which recognises that humans belong to nature, not the other way around. Africa can help to lead this shift, beginning at COP30. If Africa is empowered to achieve green industrialisation, the rest of the world will gain a critical ally in the fight for a sustainable future.