The post-election chaos that continues to greet Wednesday’s disputed election in Tanzania remains under the watchful eye of Ugandan authorities. Demonstrations in Uganda’s southern neighbouring country and key trading partner entered a third day on October 31 after a poll in which candidates from two leading parties, Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo, were barred appeared to have inflicted the damage it was expected to.
Not only was voter turnout low, but also facing 16 candidates from parties deemed political lightweights, the incumbent, Ms Samia Suluhu Hassan, was building up an unassailable lead as results from the country’s 272 constituencies continued to trickle in.
As stay-at-home orders were issued and police barricades shot up across major cities like Dar es Salaam, Arusha and Dodoma, the impact of any widespread disorder on Uganda’s business interests in Tanzania started to come within eyeshot.
While Uganda runs a trade deficit with its southern neighbour, the Uganda-Tanzania Trade Mission staged in Kampala in April 2025 underscored why the two trading partners remain joined at the hip. The business forum came three years after Ms Suluhu’s state visit in May 2022 when Kampala outdid itself in showing that a rough-on-the-edges exterior belied the brightness within an economic interdependence of two nations.
Bilateral discussions with Dodoma saw a range of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) struck down, including road user charges and restrictions on Ugandan agricultural exports such as dairy and poultry.
A 15 percent bump in dairy exports last year offered ironclad proof that substance was being put behind the pleasantries exchanged at the Uganda-Tanzania Trade Mission, whose 2024 staging took place in Tanzania. A few trade tiffs notwithstanding, poultry exports also mirrored dairy products in their sense of direction and substance.
Trading blues
Now, with Tanzania swerving toward the edge of the precipice after the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party sought to extend-however it can-a 64-year grip on power, Ugandan traders are looking over their shoulders.
‘We had just come out of an animal quarantine after battling disease outbreaks when this new challenge came,’ said Mr Lawrence Mushabe, a livestock trader in Isingiro District.
He added:’Now the border restrictions are making it hard for anyone dealing in cattle or beef. Thousands of animals that used to go to Tanzania are stuck here, and for traders like us, business has almost come to a standstill.’
Ms Enid Lucky Andinda of New Kakinga Grain Millers was equally apprehensive, saying on Friday, ‘If the situation in Tanzania continues, we who source grains from there are going to be affected. Right now, nothing is moving by road, yet most of our maize comes that way. If we can’t get supplies from Tanzania when local stocks are low and prices high, our businesses will definitely suffer.’
It is not just Ugandan traders that are casting a watchful eye over the balance sheet. Or, more accurately, the negative impact. Uncertainty has also seen the port of Mombasa steal a march on its opposite number in Dar es Salaam, undoing inroads that the Central Corridor was beginning to make.
Recent statistics point to the Northern Corridor having a spring in its step, with Mombasa handling-on average-57 vessels across a fortnight-long period. This is up from 42 vessels.
Cargo destined for the hinterland via Uganda from Dar es Salaam had shown a few upticks pre-election.
While previously such upticks felt improvised, almost accidental, the latest bump was anything but. After President Suluhu’s state visit in 2022, the Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) opened a branch in Kampala. The branch has used the right mix of aggression and charm to gradually boost cargo traffic along the Central Corridor.
Ironically, the Government of Uganda (GoU) extended an uncritical embrace to its southern neighbour because it was intent on insulating itself from the aftereffects of the likelihood of post-election violence whenever Kenya goes to the polls.
Eacop picture
As waves of unrest continue to greet the commanding majorities candidate Suluhu is scoring in several constituencies, the GoU will hope that the $5billion (Shs17.27 trillion) pipeline that links its oil fields to the Tanzanian port of Tanga is not imperilled.
With the GoU’s timelines for first oil having slipped from 2025 to 2026, thanks to bottlenecks over securing financing from African lenders, the importance of wrapping the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (Eacop) in cotton wool cannot be overstated. Yet the prospect of Tanzania slipping into post-election unrest offers no guarantees.
The Tanzanian crowd, once seen as overly passive, has responded to the absence on the presidential ballot of opposition stalwarts Tundu Lissu and Luhaga Mpina with a venomous turn once never thought possible. There are fears that the pipeline could be targeted by protestors should any whiff of intervention from Kampala be sensed.
Tanzania is a 15 percent shareholder in the Eacop through the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC). Whereas it intends to earn income from tariffs charged on each barrel of oil transported, Dodoma has also spent a princely sum in hard cash on the Eacop and its attendant infrastructure.
This includes four pumping stations, a couple of standalone pressure reduction stations, a marine storage terminal, an offshore load-out facility, and 49 standalone mainline block valve stations. The transport infrastructure has also been improved considerably, with 47 kilometres of new and upgraded permanent access roads.
Business as usual
During this year’s Uganda-Tanzania Business Forum, Uganda’s apex body for the private sector, the Private Sector Foundation Uganda (PSFU), described the Eacop as ‘a monumental endeavour that symbolised the spirit of regional integration’.
It added: ‘This 1,443-kilometre pipeline, stretching from Kabaale in Hoima, Uganda, to the port of Tanga in Tanzania, is more than just a conduit for oil; it is a lifeline for economic progress.’
And concluded thus: ‘With the investment of $5 billion (Shs17.27 trillion), Eacop is the largest single investment in both our countries, poised to unlock Uganda’s estimated 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and connect it to global markets through Tanzania’s strategic coastal gateway.’
Uganda’s southern border with Tanzania spans just under 400 kilometres (246 miles). The GoU has made clear that it is business as usual at various border points, including the busy One-Stop Border Post of Mutukula.