THE Department of Agriculture (DA) expects the country’s palay harvest to reach a record 20.2 million metric tons (MMT) this year.
Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said the projection is based on the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) report of 9.08 MMT production in the first semester and an additional 3.8 million MMT in the third quarter.
‘With another 7.5 MMT expected in the fourth quarter, total output could range between 20.2 and 20.5 MMT depending on the impact of typhoons,’ de Mesa said.
‘The highest harvest recorded was in 2023 at 20.06 million metric tons of palay. So with conservative estimates, this will become another record harvest for us this year, again, at 20.2 million metric tons,’ de Mesa said during a press briefing on Tuesday.
He also assured that even with the import ban, the country’s rice supply will remain stable.
He said total rice inventory by year-end could reach about 18 MMT, with around 3.4 MMT left as ending stock-enough to cover 89 days of national consumption into early next year.
‘Even with the import ban until December, we still have enough supply which will last up to another-almost three months hanggang next year,’ he added.
In a statement on Monday, the DA said President Marcos approved the extension of the rice import ban until December, citing its ‘little impact’ on retail prices and overall supply.
Malacañang has yet to release the enabling executive order.
De Mesa said the import ban has started to lift farmgate prices, which previously ranged between P8 and P10 per kilo before the ban but have since climbed to P14 to P17, with some areas reporting prices as high as P20 per kilo.
He added that prices for freshly harvested palay are now expected to reach around P17 per kilo, while dry and clean palay could fetch from P21 to P23 per kilo, helping farmers recover their production costs, which average P13 to P14 per kilo.
‘We’re also expecting that if the import ban is really extended and continues until December, farmgate prices will keep rising,’ he said.
Rice prices, meanwhile, have remained steady despite the import restrictions.
According to De Mesa, premium rice continues to retail at P50 per kilo, well-milled rice at P40, and regular-milled rice at P38.
‘Our rice prices have remained really stable despite the import ban, which shows that it has had a good effect on prices in the market,’ he added.
De Mesa also said that rice imports are expected to resume by January, as both January and February are considered lean months when no major harvests are expected.
However, he noted the government may still consider keeping the restrictions if local production remains strong.
‘We’ll have to look into it. It’s still possible that the import ban could continue if the harvest remains good, so that we can again protect farmgate prices. But for now, what’s important is that we have stable supply and prices,’ he also said.