In many parts of Uganda, smallholder farmers are struggling to keep pace with unpredictable weather patterns due to climate change. Rains that once arrived on time now delay or stop midway through the planting season.
Dry spells last longer, and floods wash away topsoil and destroy crops. For farmers, who cultivate a few acres of staple foods such as maize, beans, or cassava, this uncertainty has turned farming into an increasingly risky business.
The 2021 Uganda’s National Adaptation Plan for Agriculture and the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal show that the country’s average temperature has risen by about 1.30C since the 1960s, while rainfall during the main planting season has steadily declined.
Regions such as Teso and Karamoja endure recurring droughts, while the highlands of Elgon and Kigezi experience flash floods and landslides. Until recently, farmers and policymakers lacked precise data showing where the risks were greatest and how they could adapt. That gap is now being filled through a climate-vulnerability mapping tool developed by AGRA in partnership with Mathematica Global.
The maps draw from decades of climate and socio-economic data to show where Uganda’s agricultural systems are most exposed to drought, heat, and floods – and how well-equipped they are to adapt.
Smarter farming
Speaking at a workshop to validate the maps in Entebbe, Dr Paul Mwambu, the Commissioner for Crop Inspection and Certification at the Ministry of Agriculture, said: ‘Climate-vulnerability mapping is a powerful, evidence-based compass that helps us allocate resources responsibly and identify practical interventions that protect yields, incomes, and livelihoods’.
The mapping exercise used more than 35 NASA climate-model datasets and data from the Uganda National Meteorological Authority to show how droughts, floods, and heatwaves affect major crops such as maize, beans, and cassava, which are key to household food security and regional trade. Each hazard, from ‘consecutive dry days’ to ‘maximum five-day rainfall,’ was analysed in relation to local farming systems.
Dan Bunter, Senior Consultant at Mathematica Global, said the goal was to make the science useful to everyone. ‘We wanted a tool that clearly shows where the risks are and helps both policymakers and farmers take action,’ he explained.
The model combines information on climate risks, soil conditions, and farmers’ ability to adapt, giving a clear picture of where support is most needed. An easy-to-use online dashboard allows planners and farmers to view these risks and explore how future changes could affect their areas up to 2050.
When data meets experience
During the validation workshop, farmers, extension officers, and scientists reviewed the maps and discussed how the data compared with their experiences in the field. The conversations helped confirm that the tool reflects the real challenges farmers encounter across different regions.
Denis Kabito, a farmer and a leader at Uganda National Young Farmers Association (UNYFA), said the maps are a bridge between scientists and those who work the land.
‘As a farmer, this has helped me understand the various tools I can use to inform policy,’ he said. ‘It gives us a chance to interact with technology and reality, especially because the dashboard allows us to access this information firsthand.’
Kabito plans to use the dashboard to interpret data such as ‘consecutive dry days’ for his community. ‘Our respective farmers will be able to understand whether they are vulnerable or not,’ he added.
Dr Mwambu noted that such feedback strengthens the value of the tool. ‘We must deliberately integrate high-resolution climate data with on-the-ground insights from farmers and extension officers,’ he said. ‘That way, the tools remain relevant for decision-making at every level.’
Guiding smarter investments
AGRA believes the innovation’s will support Uganda’s ambition to increase food-trade competitiveness in its major staples by guiding smarter public and private investment.
‘The aim is to precisely determine where problems are likely to occur and how we can develop suitable adaptation strategies,’ said David Wozemba, the Country Director, AGRA Uganda. ‘With such evidence, Uganda can target its interventions more effectively and strengthen the resilience of its key value chains, including maize, beans, and rice.’
The vulnerability maps can be used together with seed distribution and production data to direct drought-tolerant varieties such as NAROMaize and NAROBEAN to areas that are most at-risk. Irrigation, mechanisation, and storage investments can also be prioritised where yield losses are highest.
Policymakers can use vulnerability maps together with seed-distribution data to direct drought-tolerant varieties such as NARO Maize and NARO Bean to the region’s most at risk.
This approach supports the National Adaptation Plan for Agriculture and the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV), which emphasise climate-smart production and value-chain competitiveness. It also complements Uganda’s Nationally Determined Contribution, which commits to reducing vulnerability through evidence-based planning.
Turning maps into action
The tool offers localised adaptation advisories developed with national researchers. In drought-prone Teso and Lango, the maps recommend early planting, mulching, and small-scale water harvesting. In the Elgon region, bean farmers are advised to use raised beds and climbing varieties to avoid waterlogging. Around Lake Kyoga, cassava farmers are urged to plant on ridges and use clean, disease-free planting material.
‘These recommendations must feed directly into district development plans, extension training, and certification systems,’ said Dr. Mwambu.
Humphrey Mutaasa, Chief Technical Advisor at the Grain Council of Uganda, described the technology as a breakthrough.
‘One of the big things coming out of this engagement is that we can have an insight into what was happening before and what is going to happen in the future,’ he said. ‘It helps to de-risk agriculture, turning uncertainty into opportunity.’
The maps show where climate hazards overlap with key production zones, helping government and investors target limited resources for maximum impact – from irrigation and credit to post-harvest infrastructure.
Integrating local knowledge
Dr. Jeremiah Rogito, AGRA’s Climate Adaptation and Resilience Lead, explained that the mapping process aims to make scientific data accessible to all.
‘The goal is to visualise exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity in a way that helps decision-makers prioritise interventions where they will have the most impact,’ he said.
The combination of technology and practical experience is expected to gradually change how smallholder farmers prepare for the season, making adaptation a planned effort rather than an emergency response.
Extension officers are expected to integrate the dashboard into their advisory work, while innovators are expected to develop mobile applications that display the same data in local languages.
At the close of the workshop, participants agreed to ensure that the maps inform concrete actions at district and community levels.
‘Our farmers feed the nation,’ Dr Mwambu said. ‘They deserve tools that help them survive and prosper in a changing climate.’