Global crude oil and gas prices are expected to keep falling next year, easing the financial burden of the debt-ridden Oil Fuel Fund, says the Oil Fuel Fund Office (Offo).
The downward trend is projected to continue from this year when key energy prices remained muted due to various factors on the demand and supply sides.
“Analysts expect the global economy not to recover significantly next year,” said Pornchai Jirakulpisan, the Offo’s director for policy and strategy, citing economic uncertainty as a key reason behind a drop in energy prices next year.
In 2026, Dubai crude oil reference prices are expected to range from US$60-70 a barrel. Under the Platt price benchmark, diesel prices should stand at $75-85 a barrel while gasohol prices will be $70-80 a barrel.
The Saudi Aramco reference prices for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are estimated at $460-500 per tonnne.
As of Oct 30, the crude oil price was $70.6 while diesel and gasoline prices were $87.7 and $80.9 a barrel, respectively. LPG was priced $548 a tonne.
Mr Pornchai attributed the low energy prices in 2025 partly to the Opec and its allies’ unsuccessful efforts to reduce production to boost oil prices and the milder winter that will lead to lower energy demand.
Lower energy prices enable authorities not to subsidise oil prices through the Oil Fuel Fund. This should reduce the debt it owes to financial institutions to 28 billion baht by the end of this year, down from 31.8 billion baht at present.
In another development, a new power development plan (PDP) drafting panel has been established, following a nearly seven-year delay, said the Energy Policy Administration Committee (Epac).
The panel, chaired by Thosaporn Sirisamphan, former board chairman of the Bank of Thailand, the Tourism Authority of Thailand and PTT Plc, will work on the 2026 PDP, aimed at outlining electricity demand and supply plans that better match Thailand’s transition to clean energy.
The 2026 PDP will replace the 2024 PDP, scheduled for enforcement from 2024 to 2037. Its predecessor was scrapped due to the need to adjust some key energy issues and the change to the new government.
Epac also resolved to maintain the LPG price at 423 baht per 15-kilogramme cylinder under the state price subsidy programme until Dec 31, extended from the previous expiry date of Nov 30.