The South Caucasus is no longer a peripheral zone between Europe and Russia. It is rapidly transforming into a geopolitical hub, shaped by shifting global power dynamics and the rise of new actors such as China and India. As global logistics corridors expand and energy routes diversify, the region’s strategic importance grows exponentially. Once a buffer between NATO and Russia, the South Caucasus is now asserting itself as a contributor to global realignment – a trend made unmistakably clear by the war in Ukraine.
India’s increasing involvement in the region, particularly through Armenia, is emblematic of this shift. Over the past several years, and especially since 2020, India has ramped up its military support for Armenia. While Armenian officials and media outlets often attribute this to Russia’s distraction in Ukraine and its inability to fulfil defence obligations, a deeper analysis reveals a more calculated strategy. India is leveraging the geopolitical vacuum to establish its own footprint in the region, not merely as a supplier of arms, but as a rising power seeking influence in Eurasia.
This development is understandably unsettling for regional actors, especially Azerbaijan, which has long suffered from Armenia’s irredentist and expansionist foreign policies. However, where there is the proverbial poison, there is also an antidote. India’s ambitions are counterbalanced by China, its technological rival in Asia and a global power with growing interests in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has responded by deepening its ties with China across political, economic, cultural, and now military domains.
Historically, Azerbaijan relied on Pakistan to offset India’s influence. That partnership remains strong, but now China has entered the equation. Until recently, Azerbaijan’s defence cooperation with China was indirect, often mediated through third countries. A prime example is the acquisition of the Polonez multiple launch rocket system, co-produced by Belarus and China, which significantly enhanced Azerbaijan’s artillery capabilities. The most prominent Chinese-origin platform in Azerbaijan’s arsenal is the JF-17 Block 3 fighter jet – a joint product of China and Pakistan. This aircraft has dramatically boosted Azerbaijan’s air force capabilities, with its Chinese-made avionics and weapon systems, including the PL-15E air-to-air missile, which extended Azerbaijan’s strike range by 40-50 percent. No neighboring country, excluding Russia, currently fields a comparable platform.
Speculation about further Chinese acquisitions intensified when Lieutenant General Namig Islamzade, commander of Azerbaijan’s Air Force, was reported to be evaluating the J-10CE – a fourth-generation Chinese fighter with fifth-generation capabilities. This coincided with Azerbaijan’s broader efforts to modernize its air fleet, sparking rumors that the country might soon procure advanced Chinese aircraft directly. Unfortunately, this speculation has not turned into reality so far.