As the year draws to a close, I normally present my fearless forecast for the coming year. Yet tectonic shifts in the global geopolitical balance of power compel me to frame this year’s outlook not as fearless but fearful.
Foremost among these changes is the long-anticipated transition from a unipolar world-dominated by the United States since the end of World War II-to a multipolar order. This new landscape is shaped by rising economic powers that, though less militarized, are steadily approaching parity with the US and its G7 allies, particularly the former empires of the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.
The defining feature of this multipolar world is the ascent of China and the continued evolution of BRICS, the bloc originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
China’s rise has been spectacular and shows little sign of slowing.
China’s manufacturing sector accounts for roughly 26 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), driving employment, innovation, and export revenues. On the global stage, its dominance is even more striking: China contributes about 30 percent of worldwide manufacturing value-added and has held the title of the world’s largest manufacturing powerhouse for 15 consecutive years.
Beyond manufacturing, China supplies 70 percent of the rare earth minerals essential to modern technology, including advanced weaponry. It leads the world in renewable energy production, particularly solar panels, electric vehicles, and is rapidly advancing toward dominance in artificial intelligence, microchip technology, and nuclear energy. Lesser known to most, but of crucial importance, is the fact that China graduates more engineers than the US and Europe combined.