For the Opposition, a concerning question is how it will perform in Bugisu sub-region in the January polls. Observers say this is because despite the increasing urbanisation, which sometimes correlates with Opposition gains, the opposite has happened in the sub-region, with the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) instead concretising its support in the area.
The 2021 General Election didn’t return good results for the Opposition in Bugisu sub-region, with its leading candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, managing to win only in Mbale City where he defeated the incumbent with a difference of 12,550 votes. In Mbale District, candidate Yoweri Museveni beat Kyagulanyi by just 8,171 votes.
As the vote count progressed into rural Bugisu, the Opposition fared badly, with Museveni defeating Kyagulanyi in Manafwa by a difference of 8,171 votes. In Namisindwa, Museveni beat Kyagulanyi with a difference of 27,783 votes. In Bulambuli, Museveni still beat Kyagulanyi by 28,184 votes, and he also defeated him in Bududa by 14,558 votes. Even in Sironko District, where Nathan Nandala Mafabi, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) secretary general, for many years, had positioned himself as the kingmaker, Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi with a difference of 14,375 votes.
Fallout
Though Mafabi managed to secure his Budadiri West slot and also aided FDC’s Johny Isaias Ssasaga to secure Budadiri East, his relevance in Opposition politics in the last five years has been called into question. This is especially so following the manner in which the FDC disintegrated. It all started in 2023 when a faction of the FDC, which has now gone to form another political party known as People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), accused Mafabi of failing to account for large sums of money that the party gained access to before the 2021 polls. It is alleged that the so-called ‘dirty money’ had its roots in the State House, Uganda seat of political power.
‘FDC is a public institution, when people are asked to account then it’s internal. How can issues of accountability be an internal matter? How can issues of elections in a political party be an internal matter? These issues are public,’ Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, the Kira Municipality legislator, said. Mafabi, on the other hand, has chosen to define the fight as an effort to save FDC from the National Unity Platform (NUP), which is now the biggest Opposition party, going by its numbers in the 11th Parliament. The FDC secretary general, who is now the party’s presidential flag bearer, claimed that Ssemujju and Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago, during the last general election, abandoned FDC candidates and vouched for those of NUP.
Rising star
Though issues of accountability for funds were raised, if you wind back to 2001, Mafabi’s star was rising, and his niche was holding public officials accountable.
Mafabi’s grip on tax and financial issues made him stand out early on and earned him the position of chair of the significant House Committee on the National Economy. During this time, the committee was known for producing exhaustive statistics on the performance of the economy, on the quarterly level and for putting pressure on the government to find means of reducing its national debt, then standing at Shs3 trillion.
Mafabi’s star, however, shone perkiest when he chaired the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), another House Committee, during the 8th Parliament. Appearing before the PAC became one of the most feared responsibilities for many public servants. Private individuals who got questionable deals from the government weren’t spared as the case was for the proprietor of JandM Hotel and Avemar Shopping Centre, Joseph Behakanira. Behakanira died in 2010 a few days after being questioned by the Mafabi-led PAC over the Shs2.6 billion he got from the national coffers two days before Uganda staged the Commonwealth Head of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in November of 2007.
Behakanira was diagnosed with high blood pressure before he met his Waterloo at Case Clinic. Whilst heading PAC, Mafabi cut an image of a daring interrogator. He made famous the practice of locking away officials who declined to reveal some information or to produce vital documents. He would soon acquire demi-god status in Bugisu Sub-region, not for his politics or attachment to the FDC, but for his work as chairman of the powerful Bugisu Cooperative Union (BCU), a position that earned him the nickname, ‘Mr Coffee’.
Top performer
In Uganda, Bugisu is home to Arabica Coffee, and BCU is the biggest trade partner. When Mafabi took over as chairman in 2008, the Union was on its knees and had not made a profit in many years. Many of its assets had been attached over failure to pay debts, and it could only offer farmers Shs800 for a kilogramme of coffee. Mafabi, together with a new management team, resuscitated the Union. By the time he was controversially suspended in 2010, farmers were paid Shs6,200 per kilogramme. It, consequently, came as no surprise when he was appointed Leader of the Opposition in Parliament (LoP) in June of 2011 ahead of equally experienced politicians like Abdu Katuntu.
Mafabi had not only beaten the NRM’s Beatrice Wabudeya, who was also backed by the State apparatus, but also ensured the Budadiri East constituency and all local council positions in his home district of Sironko were in the blue column. If, 14 years ago, Mafabi was at the peak of his political powers, the 2021 General Election was an indicator that he had waned politically. With the emergence of NUP, which had morphed from the People Power movement, FDC had a hard time in the Buganda region. With Buganda firmly in NUP’s grasp, FDC’s strategists had counted on Mafabi’s influence for the party to secure more legislators from Bugisu. There were opportunities that FDC could have taken advantage of to make up for their eventual losses in Buganda, because after the creation of Mbale City, two parliamentary slots were created. The FDC, which had dominated the city’s politics, with Jack Wamai Wamanga representing Mbale Municipality, was expected to reap big.
Flagging fortunes
Yet by 2021, Mafabi, who had played a critical role in the election of Wamanga in 2010 had fallen out with him. In Wamanga’s last term, the two former allies exchanged words over the degazetting of Mbale forest. Wamanga specifically was accusing Mafabi of grabbing the forest, an accusation the Budadiri West legislator vehemently denied. Known for not going down without a fight, Mafabi shot back, accusing Wamanga of absconding from parliamentary proceedings. Wamanga’s final accusation against Mafabi was that he was engaging in what he termed as ‘petty fights instead of mobilising for the party in a bid to take over from Museveni’s NRM.’
In light of such fights, it didn’t come as a surprise that FDC lost all parliamentary positions in Mbale, including in Bungokho North, which had been represented in the 10th Parliament by Gashomu Sizomu. Though FDC’s Casiim Namugali won the inaugural Mbale City mayoral seat, the losses FDC suffered in Mbale, party members said, were indicative of Mafabi’s waning powers. For NUP, the only good news in the parliamentary races came from Bududa, where John Baptist Nambeshe, who had just crossed from the NRM, managed to retain his Manjiya County seat.
Though Kyagulanyi had won Mbale City in the presidental race, NUP couldn’t replicate the same performance at Parliament because their candidate Ivan Masaba lost the Mbale City Northern Division to NRM’s Seth Wambede by 441 votes. Masaba took the battle to the courts of law, where he asked both the High Court and Court of Appeal to cancel Wambede’s victory on the grounds that he had falsified the results from Makosi Trading Centre polling station in Bukonde, but his prayers were rejected by both courts.
In January of 2026, Masaba, who has once again been given the NUP ticket, will have a chance to claim the Mbale City Northern Division as he is up against NRM’s Hudu Hussien and Paul Mugoya Wanyoto, an NRM-leaning independent. Wanyoto is said to be backed by the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), whose principal is Museveni’s son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
NUP is also hopeful in the sense that in the Mbale City Industrial Division constituency, Karim Masaba, who in 2021 won as an Independent, is defending his seat as NUP candidate, having decamped to the party. Karim Masaba will be tussling with NRM’s John Wekesa Wambogo.