Disruptions to oil and gas ?ows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to affect global energy markets, even though upstream oil production facilities have largely remained untouched by recent attacks.
according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the interruption of shipping through the vital waterway has already forced some operators to shut in production, while the region’s output of re?ned petroleum products and lique?ed natural gas (LNG) has also been signi?cantly affected. Global energy prices have reacted sharply.
as of March 3, Brent crude futures had risen 12 percent since February 27, while the Dutch TTF benchmark for European natural gas surged more than 70 percent. Markets for re?ned petroleum products- particularly diesel and jet fuel-have been especially volatile. Despite these shocks, the global oil market has remained in surplus since the start of 2025. Before the latest military escalation on February 28, supply was already expected to exceed demand well into 2026. However, the IEA warns that prolonged supply disruptions could quickly shift the market into de?cit. Global oil inventories reached more than 8.2 billion barrels in 2025, the highest level since 2021, providing a buffer against supply shocks.
iEA member countries hold more than 1.2 billion barrels in public emergency reserves, alongside roughly 600 million barrels in industry stocks maintained under government obligation.
these reserves could be released to stabilize markets if needed. Natural gas markets, however, remain tight.
although the sector gradually stabilized after the shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, storage levels in the Northern Hemisphere are now relatively low following the winter heating season. This is expected to increase demand for LNG in the coming months. Concerns have intensi?ed after an attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility on March 2 forced a shutdown of production.
the complex, the world’s largest LNG facility, produced about 112 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2025, along with signi?cant volumes of lique?ed petroleum gas and condensate.
any prolonged disruption there could further strain already tight gas markets.
at the center of these risks is the Strait of Hormuz-a narrow but crucial maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. In 2025, about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and re?ned products passed through the strait, accounting for roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade.
options for bypassing the strait are limited.
only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines capable of partially rerouting exports, with combined spare capacity estimated at between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels per day. Most other producers in the region rely heavily on the strait to transport their exports.
the LNG market faces even greater vulnerability. More than 110 billion cubic meters of LNG-nearly one-?fth of global trade-passed through the strait in 2025, with Qatar and the UAE responsible for the overwhelming majority. Because there are no alternative export routes, any prolonged disruption could force countries with long-term supply contracts to turn to the spot market, driving natural gas prices higher worldwide.