As political activities gradually gather momentum ahead of the next electoral cycle, the race for the All Progressives Congress (APC) senatorial ticket in Sokoto East is steadily emerging as one of the most closely watched contests in the state.
What initially appeared as a routine pre-primary positioning has evolved into a complex political chessboard defined by alliances, personal networks, party loyalty and strategic calculations among key stakeholders.
Although formal declarations are yet to begin, multiple aspirants-ranging from experienced lawmakers and party administrators to technocrats and political newcomers-are already making quiet moves to secure support across the senatorial district.
Political observers note that while the field remains fluid, early permutations suggest that the eventual outcome will depend less on public popularity alone and more on internal party dynamics, delegate mobilisation and the influence of established political power blocs.
Sokoto East Senatorial District, comprising eight local government areas, has historically produced influential political figures and remains a critical bloc in determining electoral outcomes in the state.
As such, the contest for the APC ticket is attracting heightened interest, with stakeholders keenly observing how the party navigates competing ambitions.
One of the prominent figures being mentioned in political circles is the serving member representing Wurno/Rabah Federal Constituency, Arc. Ibrahim Almustapha.
Arc. Ibrahim Almustapha
Having served in the House of Representatives since 2015, Almustapha is widely regarded as a grassroots politician with a strong record of constituency engagement.
His supporters point to his consistent presence in his constituency and his efforts in facilitating projects and interventions as evidence of his connection with the people.
However, despite his strengths, analysts argue that his political influence is currently concentrated within Wurno and Rabah local government areas, which form his immediate constituency.
To mount a successful senatorial bid, he would need to significantly expand his political footprint across the remaining six local government areas in the district. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity, as the timeframe for building such widespread support may be limited before party primaries commence.
Hon. Musa S. Adar
Another notable aspirant is Hon. Musa S. Adar, a seasoned politician who previously represented Gada/Goronyo Federal Constituency for four consecutive terms.
Adar’s long legislative experience and name recognition across Sokoto East are considered major assets in the unfolding contest. His tenure in the National Assembly helped him cultivate relationships across different segments of the district, giving him a potential advantage in mobilising support.
Nevertheless, his political trajectory has not been without setbacks. His loss in the 2023 general elections to a first-time entrant marked a significant turning point, raising questions among some party members about his current political standing.
Additionally, reports surrounding his resignation from a recent political appointment have generated debate within party circles. While some view the move as a strategic step to focus on the senatorial ambition, others believe it could complicate his chances depending on how party rules and internal expectations are interpreted.
Alhaji Isa Sadiq Achida
Perhaps one of the most strategically positioned contenders is Alhaji Isa Sadiq Achida, the immediate past state chairman of the APC and the current North-West Zonal Secretary of the party. Achida’s political relevance is closely linked to his longstanding association with Senator Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, widely regarded as the leader of the APC in Sokoto State and a dominant force in the state’s political architecture.
Achida’s rise within the party structure has been steady and calculated. From his earlier role as commissioner during the administration of Attahiru Bafarawa to his later reappointment under Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, he has built a reputation as a seasoned administrator with cross-party experience.
His decision to resign from a commissioner position in 2018 to contest for the APC state chairmanship marked a defining moment in his political career, a gamble that ultimately paid off.
During his tenure as state chairman, Achida played a central role in repositioning the APC in Sokoto State, leading the party to a significant victory in the 2023 governorship election. Even during its period in opposition, the party under his leadership secured three senatorial seats, nine House of Representatives seats and a majority in the State House of Assembly during the 2019 general elections-an achievement that continues to strengthen his credibility within party ranks.
Beyond his administrative credentials, Achida is widely regarded as a grassroots politician with deep connections across Sokoto East. His decision to remain in his hometown of Achida despite ongoing security challenges in parts of the senatorial district has been interpreted by supporters as a demonstration of resilience and solidarity with his constituents. This perception, combined with his proximity to the party’s power structure, positions him as a formidable contender in a delegate-driven primary system.
Alhaji Umar Ajiya Isa
Also generating interest in the unfolding race is Alhaji Umar Ajiya Isa, a former staff of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), who is believed to have close ties to the political family of Bafarawa. His potential entry into the contest is widely seen as an attempt by certain political interests to reassert influence within the APC structure in Sokoto East.
Unlike other aspirants, Ajiya Isa has yet to test his popularity at the polls and is generally viewed as lacking an established grassroots political base. However, analysts caution against dismissing his chances outright, noting that Nigerian politics often accommodates late entrants who possess strong elite backing and the financial capacity to quickly mobilise support.
His success, therefore, may depend on his ability to build a viable political structure within a relatively short period.
Beyond the individual strengths and weaknesses of the aspirants, several broader factors are expected to shape the outcome of the APC senatorial ticket in Sokoto East.
Chief among these is the role of zoning arrangements and informal power-sharing agreements within the party. While no official zoning formula has been publicly declared, internal negotiations among party leaders could influence which areas or blocs are favoured in the final decision.
Intra-party cohesion is another critical variable. The APC in Sokoto State has, in recent years, navigated internal tensions and competing interests among its stakeholders.
The extent to which party leaders are able to manage these differences and present a united front ahead of the primaries will significantly impact the credibility and acceptability of the eventual candidate.
Equally important is the influence of key political power brokers whose endorsements often carry significant weight in delegate-based primaries. Alignments with such figures could prove decisive, particularly in a contest where no clear frontrunner has emerged.
Security concerns are also expected to feature prominently in the calculations of party delegates. Sokoto East has faced persistent challenges related to banditry and rural insecurity, issues that have directly affected livelihoods and community stability.
As a result, delegates may prioritise candidates who are perceived to possess the capacity, influence and legislative competence to effectively advocate for security interventions and development at the national level.
Political analysts suggest that in such a context, the ability of aspirants to articulate clear policy positions and demonstrate a track record of engagement on security-related issues could influence delegate preferences.
Despite the growing intensity of political activities, stakeholders within the senatorial district have expressed concern over the apparent lack of structured reconciliation efforts among aspirants. In contrast to other zones where party leaders have reportedly initiated consultations to manage ambitions and prevent divisions, Sokoto East appears to be lagging in this regard.
This absence of early consensus-building mechanisms has contributed to a sense of uncertainty among party members, with multiple camps emerging and competing for influence. There are also speculations that behind-the-scenes discussions are ongoing between state party leaders and select aspirants, including individuals perceived to have significant financial resources.
As the political calendar advances, observers believe that the coming months will be critical in determining the trajectory of the race. Formal declarations, alliance-building and intensified grassroots mobilisation are expected to reshape the current landscape, potentially narrowing the field and clarifying the balance of power among contenders.
For now, the contest remains open, defined by a delicate interplay of ambition, strategy and negotiation. While no aspirant has established a clear lead, the eventual outcome will likely be determined by a combination of early momentum, strategic alliances and the ability to navigate the intricate dynamics of party politics in Sokoto State.
In the end, the race for the APC senatorial ticket in Sokoto East is not merely a contest of individuals but a reflection of broader political currents within the state-where influence, loyalty and timing converge to shape the path to power.