Rwanda’s Kagame was here. Next is SA’s Ramaphosa: Could Botswana play peacemaker in the DRC?

Last week president Duma Boko hosted Rwanda’s Paul Kagame who was here on a state visit.

Now we hear that South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa too will be here quite soon.

In geopolitics there is hardly a coincidence.

Rwanda and South Africa are fighting on different sides in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

In that conflict, which has been running since the late 1990s, South Africa, which is part of the United Nations backing the DRC government.

Rwanda is backing the M23 rebels that have since taken key cities in the east and have vowed to march all the way to Kingshasa, not altogether unfounded given not only their momentum but also the weakness of the government forces.

At one point no less than ten countries were involved in the DRC water, including Zimbabwe, South Africa and Namibia. More than twenty five years later the war still rages on.

At stake is the rare earth mineral wealth of the DRC, much of dug from the east of that country.

A few months ago, a war of words erupted between Kagame and Ramaphosa after a number of South African soldiers were killed.

The DRC, it must be pointed out has never known real peace for a very long time.

The situation in the DRC is so intricate and so unpredictable that former president Joseph Kabila who basically backed the current president Felix Tshisekedi to succeed him has now switched sides and is now fully behind M23.

In the meantime Tshisekedi’s government has sentenced Kabila to death in absentia.

The United States has recently become actively interested in getting the war resolved.

Other than president Donald Trump’s ego trip to be seen to be dowsing fires of war across the world, the United States will definitely want to dislodge the Chinese by way of putting their handle on the DRC rare earths.

Bringing peace to the DRC has proved exceedingly difficult not least because of the mistrust that exists between the regional players.

Rwanda has rejected many of the possible mediators, accusing them of not only bias but conflict of interest as well.

There is evidence that Rwanda is warming up to Botswana.

While this was the first state visit by Kagame to Botswana, it is worth noting that he had previously paid a short working visit during the presidency of Mokgweetsi Masisi.

This is very rare, by Kagame’s standards.

Can Botswana play a role in bringing peace to the DRC.

That would not be unprecedented.

The late Sir Ketumile Masire spent a lot of time trying to bring the warring factions of the DRC together.

At one point those factions descended on Gaborone under the facilitation of Masire and I had an opportunity to interview quite a few of them including Professor Ernest Wamba dia Wamba and also Jean-Pierra Bemba.

Again, we must add Tshisekedi of the DRC who is a very key player in all that is going on in the DRC paid a state visit to Botswana when Masisi was still President.

A big prize awaits whoever can bring lasting peace to the DRC.

Now with the backing of the United States, giving it another shot is something that Botswana government could consider.

Botswana has always punched way above its weight.

The country has solid credentials.

We also have internationalist pretensions and ambitions too.

Peace in the DRC will need to have a backing of South Africa.

And unlike Masisi before him, president Boko has cordial relations with Ramaphosa of South Africa.

Of course, the enduring problems will be much more than just security, as Kagame is wont to say. Nor will it be all about the minerals as Tshisekedi likes to point out.

It will be about egos.

Kagame has no regard for Tshisekedi. And on numerous occasions he has publicly accused him of incompetence, reminding the world that he is not surprised because the guy was driving taxis in Belgium until somebody told him to come and become president in the DRC.

Rwanda has ambitions to become a continental superpower

South Africa already is.

And again, Kagame has no regard for Ramaphosa.

The contempt is mutual. Which will give president Boko a hard task to think around.

Some people call Kagame a warlord.

Others call him a strongman. Both descriptions are not far off.

A few years ago I visited Rwanda. The infrastructure developments in Kigali compare with the best in the world.

World class Hotels are everywhere, including the famous one of the movie Hotel Rwanda.

But that all those amount to a veneer underneath which is a police state, tightly controlled by Kagame, his army, intelligence and security.

That said, you have to give the man credit.

He is thorough and forthright.

He is discreet as he intellectually serious.

He is meticulous and brave.

And he loves his country.

It is not usual to find such descriptions referring to one person. No wonder he has been doing as he likes in Rwanda for over two decades.

Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe once complained of the ‘little Rwanda.’ Mugabe backed Laurent Kabila.

They are now both dead.

Kagame is still here.

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