W ith a high energy import dependency of 59%, Bangladesh is being severely affected by the Middle East war due to the disruption of its energy supply chain.
energy dependency has risen sharply over the past 10 years from 25% in 2015 to 59% in 2025.
in the past, Bangladesh was less impacted by the global energy crisis because we were less dependent on fuel imports. We faced huge load shedding in the past, not due to a primary fuel supply shortage, but because capacity addition lagged behind power demand growth.
the situation has changed as energy dependency rises constantly. In early 2022, at the beginning of the Ukraine war, a global energy crisis was created, and we were severely affected due to abnormally high primary fuel import prices. Since 2022, we have been facing load shedding not due to capacity shortage but due to fuel supply shortages.
as our energy dependency has increased over the past decade, we have become increasingly vulnerable to global crises. Situation before Present Crisis: We were in crisis even before the Iran war, primarily due to a domestic natural gas supply shortage.
in FY 2015, domestic natural gas contributed 73% of TPES (Total Primary Energy Supply), but in FY 2025, it came down to only 37%. Even LNG import of 6.75 Mtoe helped only raise natural gas contribution to nearly 53%. We have observed a lot of uncertainties in offshore drilling. LNG imports faced limitations due to the failure to implement the 4th and 5th FSRU projects.
additionally, the utilization of the existing two FSRUs remained below full capacity, operating at only 77% in FY 2025 and 68% in FY 2024.
industries have been the worst victims of this crisis.
the power sector has been operating only about half of its 11,000 MW capacity from gas- based power plants. Consequently, BPDB is forced to operate costly HFObased power plants, causing the cost of electricity supply to skyrocket. However, the cooking and transport sectors remained relatively stable, with less impact, before the outbreak of the Middle East war.
impact of Middle-East War: Since the start of the war, we have been facing strain across all sectors.
at the beginning of April 2026, summer heat and high humidity had begun to severely impact the electricity sector. Furthermore, a substantial increase in LPG prices for cooking is causing households to switch to electric induction or infrared cookers, putting added pressure on the electricity supply.
industry has been facing a natural gas crisis, and now, in addition, increased load shedding may interrupt further production. Meanwhile, the impact of the present fuel supply crisis on the transport sector has made headlines globally. Petrol and Octane Availability: For the ?rst time in many years, the transport sector is facing an energy crisis.
there might de?nitely be disruptions in the supply of major fuels, such as petrol, octane, diesel, marine fuel (for oceangoing vessels), and Jet A-1 (for aviation), due to the interruption of shipping movement through the Strait of Hormuz. The long queues of cars and bikes for petrol and octane are unprecedented, driven primarily by panic buying, even though about 70% of these fuels are produced locally. Public and private sector fractionation plants process Condensate, NGL (Natural Gas Liquids) from gas ?elds to produce octane, petrol, diesel, kerosene, LPG, and other petroleum products. For example, in FY 2024, demand for petrol and octane was 430,836 and 385,435 metric tonnes, respectively (total demand 816,271 tonnes), while local supply was 270,440 and 263,959 tonnes, respectively (total local production 534,400 tonnes). Local production contributed about 66% of total octane and petrol demand.
eRL (Eastern Re?nery Limited) produced 41,775 tonnes from imported crude oil (covering 5% of total demand), while direct import was 259,790 tonnes (32% of total demand, though only 29% consumed, with the rest added to stock). With local production, supply from ERL, and available stock, there should not be a crisis like this, even if there are no octane and petrol imports for two or three months. Diesel Supply is of Major Concern: The availability of diesel should be our main concern, as almost two-thirds of total ?nal oil consumption is diesel. Transport and agriculture, two major sectors, are heavily dependent on diesel. These two sectors consume almost 85% (transport 65% and agriculture 20%) of total diesel consumption. For example, in FY 2024, diesel consumption was 42.5 lakh tonnes, which is 63% of the total oil demand (67.6 lakh tonnes, excluding LPG imports by the private sector and HFO imports by IPPs).
to meet the 42.5 lakh tonnes of diesel demand, local supply from indigenous sources was only about 1.5 lakh tonnes (3.5%), while ERL supplied 5.8 lakh tonnes (13.6%).
the remaining 35.3 lakh tonnes (83% of the total demand) was imported.
therefore, diesel import dependency is huge, necessitating careful planning for a continuous supply from diversi?ed sources. Price Volatility: Prices of most major fuels have gone crazy within a month of the outbreak of the Iran war.
the LNG spot price in the Japan-Korea market has almost doubled from roughly $10/MMBtu to $20/MMBtu. Brent crude oil prices have surged by nearly 50%, which directly impacts the LNG prices in our long-term contracts.
arabian Light crude is priced similarly to Brent, while Murban crude is slightly costlier than Arabian Light.
thermal Coal prices for shipments out of Australia (Newcastle Port) have surged nearly 20%. Coal prices for power plants in Bangladesh are linked to the Newcastle and Indonesian HBA benchmark prices. Prices of re?ned petroleum products are soaring.
a recent newspaper report reveals the import-adjusted cost of diesel has reached nearly 200 Tk/Liter, while the retail selling price is maintained at 115 Tk/Liter.
the only exception is the uranium (U3O8 Ore) price, which remains relatively stable during this turmoil, hovering around $85 per pound. Critical Issue: We have no alternative but to strictly maintain effective austerity measures until the crisis fully resolves.
the government should adjust fuel prices as soon as possible, not only to avoid a ?nancial crisis but also to bring discipline to the energy market. For example, the BERC set the LPG price for April 2026 at Taka 1940 per 12kg cylinder, aligned with the global price, which is nearly 30% jump from the previous month. However, there is no market chaos regarding LPG availability and no ?nancial burden on the national exchequer. While the decision to adjust fuel prices may be unpopular now, it can prevent more unpopular decisions in the future The military con?ict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has triggered an immediate global energy crisis, pushing the world economy closer to recession. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy trade, is at the center of this shock.
the US-Iran war is shaking energy markets worldwide, affecting even major producers such as Canada and the United States.
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already downgraded its global growth forecasts in response to these developments.
immediate Energy Market Disruption The con?ict has effectively choked the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply ?ows.
this has led to: Price spikes: Oil prices have surged to around $100 per barrel, creating immediate in?ationary pressure. Supply disruption: The IMF estimates regional output could fall by 4.9 million barrels per day. LNG impact: Key facilities in Qatar, which supply about 20% of global LNG, have been struck, severely disrupting natural gas supplies.
iran’s blockade of tanker traf?c has created one of the largest energy supply disruptions in modern history. Like a clogged artery, the con?ict has restricted the ?ow of energy to the global economy. Even if a fragile cease?re holds, recovery could take months or even years.
on February 28, energy strategists across London, New York, Toronto, and Singapore quickly convened to assess the impact of the attacks.
their early view was that both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude prices would likely remain above $90 per barrel. Crucially, analysts emphasized that the ability to transport oil had become more important than production itself. With oil already above $90 per barrel, prolonged disruption could push prices toward $150, eventually triggering demand destruction. Global Economic Forecast The IMF warns that the crisis could erase trillions of dollars from global GDP: Severe scenario (prolonged con?ict): Oil at $110-$125 per barrel could reduce global growth to 2% and push in?ation to 6%. Baseline scenario (quick resolution): Markets stabilize by mid-year, with global growth slowing to 3.1%. Regional contraction: Iran’s economy could shrink by 6.1%, while Qatar’s could contract by 8.6%. Broader Economic Consequences Beyond oil, the effects are spreading across multiple sectors: Industrial metals: Aluminum prices are rising as production in the Middle East (7% of global supply) is disrupted. Food security: Around 33% of global fertilizer shipments are affected, increasing the risk of higher food prices. Monetary policy: Central banks may be forced to raise interest rates to combat in?ation, raising recession risks.
other commodities transported through the Strait of Hormuz-such as aluminum and fertilizer-are also becoming more expensive, pushing up the cost of manufactured goods and food.
these higher costs are expected to ?lter through the global economy over the next three to nine months.
uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments, including potential USIran negotiations, continues to cloud energy markets and maritime logistics. Normalization of supply chains will likely take months, not weeks.
analysts increasingly view $90 per barrel as the new baseline for Brent crude this year. While the immediate pain is being felt across economies, prolonged disruption will deepen the damage. Fertilizer prices, for instance, have already surged by about 50% in early March due to supply disruptions. Farmers worldwide are feeling the impact.
in Canada’s Prairie provinces- Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba- producers are facing higher fertilizer costs, threatening pro?t margins in a sector that contributes around $20 billion in exports.
a Bangladesh-Canadian farmer near Saskatoon noted that rising fertilizer and fuel costs are creating signi?cant uncertainty for the 2026 growing season. Gasoline prices jumped by about 29% in March alone. Higher costs are also affecting air travel, agricultural spraying, and equipment procurement.
airlines and logistics companies are passing on increased fuel costs through surcharges, ultimately raising prices for consumers. For many households, the crisis is becoming increasingly visible. Rising fuel and food costs are forcing people to reassess spending, affecting everything from daily commutes to travel plans.
the oil sector remains central not only to energy supply but also to employment, investment, and broader economic activity.
external shocks to this sector have signi?cant implications for economic growth and national budgets, particularly in countries like Canada. Before the con?ict, global oil markets were expecting relatively weak prices in 2026 due to oversupply. However, the war has dramatically altered this outlook, highlighting the fragility of global supply systems. For North American energy producers, especially in Western Canada, higher prices are creating incentives to increase investment and drilling activity. From Alberta’s oil sands to British Columbia’s export terminals, the impact of the con?ict is being closely watched. Global Impact by Region The economic fallout varies across regions: United States ? In?ation risk: Oil at $120-$150/ barrel would push gasoline above $5/gallon. ? Raising headline in?ation to 6-9%. The Fed would be forced to raise rates sharply, causing a recession. ? Defense spending: This military con?ict added $500B-$1T to U.S. debt, straining ?scal budgets. China ? Manufacturing shock: As the world’s largest oil importer (over 10 million b/d), a Hormuz closure would cut supplies by 30-40%.
industrial output could fall 5-10%, with GDP growth dropping below 3%. ? Trade routes: 80% of China’s Middle East crude transits Hormuz. Alternative routes (e.g., Pakistan’s Gwadar port) lack capacity.
european Union ? Energy rationing: Already recovering from Russian gas cuts, the EU would lose remaining LNG from Qatar (20% of supply). Germany would likely face industrial shutdowns and recession. ? In?ation spike: Energy prices accelerate to 8-10%, forcing the ECB to hike rates despite economic contraction.
india ? Currency crisis: Oil imports 85% at $120+ would widen de?cit, triggering depreciation and capital out?ows. ? Food in?ation: Fertilizer prices would double, raising food costs by 15-20%, hitting poor households hardest. Japan and South Korea ? Trade de?cit blowout: Both are almost entirely dependent on Middle East oil. Japan’s trade de?cit could exceed 5% of GDP, forcing yen intervention. ? Industrial output: Auto and electronics manufacturing slowed sharply due to energy costs.
iran ? Complete economic collapse: Oil exports (already sanctioned) would stop entirely.
the rial would hyperin?ate (500%+), and GDP could contract by 20-30% within months. ? Humanitarian crisis: Food and medicine imports would halt, risking famine and mass displacement.
emerging Markets (e.g., Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh) ? Debt defaults: Higher oil import bills would deplete foreign reserves. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Egypt (already with IMF programs) would likely default. ? Social unrest: Food and fuel subsidy cuts would trigger protests, as seen in Sri Lanka (2022). Russia and Venezuela ? As oil prices spike, Russia could earn $300B+ extra annually, partially offsetting sanctions. ? Venezuela would see temporary cash in?ows, but production can’t scale up quickly. Saudi Arabia and UAE Short-term gain, long-term risk: ? Higher oil revenue (perhaps $200B extra) is offset by potential attacks on their own facilities. ? The Gulf stock markets would crash due to war risk.
uAE-Dubai The impact of the US-Israeli con?ict with Iran on the UAE is severe and multi-dimensional, representing one of the most signi?cant economic shocks in decades. Financial and Economic Collapse: The UAE’s economic model, heavily reliant on the stock market, has wiped out over $120 billion. Stock index plunged by 1620%, with real estate, banking, and retail sectors suffering the steepest declines.
tourism and Aviation: Dubai’s status as a global tourism hub has been shattered, with airports damaged and shut down. Dubai Hotel Collapse, occupancy plummeted to 16% (down from the usual 90%).
energy and Trade The UAE has some infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; its energy sector is still struggling. Despite surging oil prices, losses were over $174 million due to lower volumes. Food Security The UAE relies on imports for approximately 85% of its food supply. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off food and fertilizer shipments.
the UAE was a major exporter of fertilizers, but trade has now fallen to ‘almost zero’. Government Response and Vulnerability The government is taking desperate measures to stabilize the economy. Requested ?nancial assistance from the US. GDP Warning: Analysts at Goldman Sachs have warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could reduce the UAE’s GDP by as much as 6% in a single month. Dubai’s Maritime Economy The con?ict has brought Dubai’s maritime economy to a critical juncture, exposing its deep vulnerability as a logistics hub.
the Siege of Jebel Ali is the ‘engine’ of Dubai, accounting for roughly 36% of Dubai’s GDP.
the Strait of Hormuz closure has cut off its supply lines.
traf?c Collapse: Daily vessel traf?c through the strait has dropped from 138 ships to just 3 in two weeks. Volume Loss: The port, which handled 15.6 million TEUs last year, is struggling as major shipping lines (Maersk, MSC) have suspended Gulf voyages.
insurance Nightmare: Even when ships can move, the costs are prohibitive, creating a ?nancial blockade. War risk insurance rates have surged from 0.125% to 0.4% of vessel value, adding over $4 million per passage. Freight Spikes: Container shipping rates have skyrocketed, with war risk surcharges rising 30-fold (from ~$100 to $3,000 per container).
the blockade is in?icting real economic pain on businesses tied to the port and Stranded Cargo. Business Disruption: The port’s free zone (hosting 7,000+ companies) is under strain.
the port is currently unable to ful?ll its role as a global hub due to the blockade.
till reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the current rerouting strategies cannot sustain Dubai’s $100+ billion maritime economy inde?nitely. Canada Canada, even being an oil and gas exporter, has soaring energy prices that have other rami?cations in Alberta/ Saskatchewan/BC, from consumers at the gasoline pumps to farmers facing higher input costs.
it’s not comfortable for farmers, who are planning to put less nitrogen fertilizer on their ?elds this year due to higher costs.
they grow wheat, canola, lentils, and ?ax, and are planning to put less nitrogen fertilizer on their ?elds this year due to higher costs, although it could limit the upside potential of crops, depending on the weather. Yet, it also means higher energy expenses, higher fuel bill. Big tractors burn lots of diesel fuel, so this is going to be impactful. Capital Market, Investment Risks vs. Reward Investment companies in charge of both investing and risk management gathered for a series of top-level meetings as soon as it became clear that attacks on Iran would have a dramatic effect on oil supplies.
the ?rst thing these teams began to do as oil prices soared was to run stress tests on a billion-dollar portfolio. Stress-testing and modelling different scenarios allows them to rethink risk and rebalance portfolios to protect against the fallout from the worst possible outcomes and take advantage of potential opportunities. Disruption in credit markets and in?ation will pass the initial shock on oil prices and hit consumers at the gas pump. Middle Eastern oil and gas facilities, shut down by the war, can’t be turned back on with the ?ick of a switch.
the process can take months.
it could take years to repair damaged infrastructure in the region.
even after news of the U.S.-Iran cease?re, Brent crude prices would average US$100 a barrel next year.
the war in Iran choked off supplies at the Strait of Hormuz, where a ?fth of the world’s lique?ed natural gas once ?owed.
among the biggest concerns is the reported extensive damage to the world’s largest LNG production facility, Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex.
all of this is driving increased interest in Canadian LNG export projects. LNG Canada A tanker loads a cargo of lique?ed natural gas at Canada’s Largest LNG facility in Kitimat, B.C.
the market is calling for more of those products from the West Coast. Next LNG Plant,’ Wood?bre LNG ‘is set to become Canada’s second LNG export facility when it begins operating next year. The project’s massive gas liquefaction unit in the current geopolitical situation is a reminder of the importance of a diverse and stable supply from Wood?bre. With the current con?ict stranding a signi?cant portion of the world’s production of oil and gas, it reinforces the value of Canadian energy that can reach across the Paci?c Ocean to help supply foreign markets.
the upshot, according to analysts, is that Canadian energy export projects are looking increasingly viable. With the con?ict in Iran, we suspect many Asian/European buyers are rethinking the reliability of energy supply chains, and we think Canadian LNG is set to bene?t from that theme. Bangladesh: A Triple Shock Bangladesh is among the most vulnerable countries, facing a ‘triple shock’ of energy shortages, economic strain, and food security risks.
energy Crisis: Supply Cuts and Soaring Costs The con?ict has triggered both a physical shortage of fuel and a spike in prices. ? Re?nery Shutdown: The country’s only state-owned re?nery, Eastern Re?nery, has suspended operations due to a halt in crude oil imports from the Middle East over the last two months. ? Expensive Emergency Purchases: With contracted LNG supplies blocked at Hormuz, Bangladesh was forced to buy 11 cargoes on the spot market.
it paid an average double the pre-war price. ? Power Dependency: The country now gets 60% of its power from imported gas and coal, making the grid highly susceptible to fuel shortages.
economic Fallout: Growth Slows and In?ation Bites The World Bank projects a signi?cant economic slowdown as the crisis compounds existing weaknesses. ? GDP Growth Slows: Growth is projected to drop to 3.9% in FY26. SandP Global Ratings warns of ‘stag?ation-like conditions’ (slower growth combined with rising prices). ? Macroeconomic Pressure: Persistent in?ation remains high at 8.5%.
the government has already sought $2 billion in external ?nancing just to manage fuel imports and has been forced to trim public spending. ? Poverty Impact: The national poverty rate has increased to 21.4% (up from 18.7% in 2022). Due to the con?ict, 1.2 million fewer people will escape poverty this year than previously projected. Food Security: Fertilizer and Agricultural Threats A hidden but dangerous impact is on food production, driven by fertilizer shortages. ? Import Disruption: About 30-35% of global fertilizer shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. With supply lines choked, a serious urea shortage is looming. ? Domestic Production Collapse: Five state-owned fertilizer factories running under capacity due to gas shortages, leaving farmers facing higher black-market prices. ? Food Supply Risk: Of?cials warn this could hurt the production of Aman rice (the second-largest rice crop), threatening food security if not resolved quickly.
the Root Vulnerability: Weak Resilience International institutions note that Bangladesh lacks the buffer to absorb these shocks. ? Fragile Banking Sector: The nonperforming loan ratio stands at a critical 30.6%, limiting the government’s ability to ?nance emergency imports. ? Low Reserves: With thin foreign exchange buffers, the country has limited capacity to weather a prolonged crisis compared to neighbors who invested in renewables (like Pakistan).
the Way Forward Experts emphasize the need for Bangladesh to diversify energy sources and secure alternative supply routes for fuel and fertilizer.
in the current geopolitical environment, resilience depends on building a more diversi?ed and stable energy supply system. Canadian LNG, among other alternatives, could play a role in this diversi?cation strategy