President Museveni yesterday delivered a State of the Nation Address, his 41st since seizing power in 1986, in line with Article 101(1) of the Constitution that obliges him to do so every start of a legislative session. In the 2025 address, exactly a year ago today, the President committed to accelerate Uganda’s economic growth and investments in oil and gas infrastructure, with a target of ‘first oil out by this year.
He spotlighted bullet-proofing Uganda’s security, despite raging instability in neighbouring countries, pursuing value addition to bolster export earnings and announced the wonders of Parish Development Model (PDM) in taming poverty. Delivered by a Head of State or Government, SONA is an annual comprehensive account of the subsisting socio-economic and political affairs in a country over a past year and setting the sitting government’s priorities for the next 12 months.
In the case of the 2025 address, Mr Museveni made at least 15 pledges. Except for featuring multiple videos of beneficiaries testifying about prospering from PDM and Operation Wealth Creation (OWC), the President yesterday skirted discussing the achievements made or the challenges encountered in fulfilling the promises he had made. We revisit the pledges and, based on official figures and commentary, score how near or distant Uganda is today from the fortunes the President promised 365 days ago, a period within which he secured a new five-year mandate.
Growing the economy
President Museveni pledged to grow Uganda’s economy tenfold, from $50b in 2023 to $500b by 2040. The magic? Massive investments in agro-industrialisation, mineral development, tourism, and science and technology (ATMS). By last June, Uganda Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at $66.9b, less by $433.1b against the target. To achieve the $500b over 15 years to 2040, the last mile of Uganda’s current development blueprint, the country’s wealth should on average year-on-year expand by about $29b. However, over the past 12 months, the GDP increased by just $1.5b, a tiny fraction of the mean, placing Uganda farther from the target. The development of the 1000-hectare Wadelai Irrigation Scheme in Pakwach District was at 93.5 percent by June 2025, and President Museveni promised to have it up and running.
The African Development Bank, its main funder, however reported a marginal 0.5 percent additional progress a year later. Only two of four planned medium-scale irrigation schemes – Naimatsu in Bududa and Acomai in Bukedea District, which Museveni launched last November – are completed and functional.
Construction progress for the others in Kween and Bulambuli districts stands at 70-90 percent, suggesting both projects are behind schedule.
Foreign Direct Investments and Diaspora remittances
In President Museveni’s 2025 SONA, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows from June 2025 to May 2026 was estimated as $3.8b while tourism earnings and remittance receipts were projected at $1.5b and $1.4b, respectively. The Uganda Development Bank noted in the annual report that Uganda received $3.57b in FDI by the end of June, last year, with the inflows primarily driven by developments in the oil and gas, mineral extraction, and manufacturing sectors.
We were unable to obtain figures of FDI inflows over the last 12 months. The Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Finance, Dr Ramathan Ggoobi, who doubles as the secretary to the Treasury, told a media briefing on May 29, 2026 that this FDI and Diaspora remittance declined in the third quarter of this financial year (January – March).
Earnings from tourism, compared to the same period last year, increased. Industry players such as Amos Wekesa have reported increasing booking cancellations by foreign tourists following the outbreak of Ebola last month. The Ministry of Health confirms 15 infections, as of this week, and two deaths – the deceased both being Congolese citizens who crossed the border to seek treatment.
Mineral development
While flagging mineral development as one of the four-point ATMS pillars for the 10-fold growth of Uganda’s economy, President Museveni pledged in June last year that his government would capitalise the National Mining Company to a tune of Shs500b over the next five year. This would enable the government to take 15 percent equity in all medium-scale and large-scale strategic mining operations in the country. An ambitious plan to invest Shs500b over five years would require the government on average to inject Shs100b in the sector annually. By yesterday, Mr Museveni did not speak about this promise.
Mr Amos Lugoloobi, the state minister for planning whom the President retained in the docket in last month’s reshuffle, while launching the company’s five-year (2025/6-2029/30) strategic investment plan on September 30, 2025, reiterated the government’s financing commitment. It remained unclear as of yesterday whether any funds were disbursed for operations of the company over the past year as Mr Museveni promised.
Boosting electricity supply
By the time of the 2025 SONA, Uganda’s installed power generation capacity stood at 2,052 megawatts. This quantity of energy, the President noted, was inadequate to power anticipated economic growth over the next five years. He proposed that to avert likely challenges, his government would invest in new hydropower plants at Ayago and Oriang, both in Nwoya District and Kiba in Oyam District. The three were projected to add a combined 1,622 megawatts onto the national grid. Mr Museveni also reported that works at an 8,400-megawatts nuclear power plant in the eastern Buyende District were ongoing. The planned power developments, together with existing installed capacity, were expected to increase electricity supply to the national grid to 12,074 megawatts.
According to officials, construction of a hydro-dam at Ayago has not commenced while both Kiba and Oriang dam projects are at feasibility study level.
Securing Uganda
President Museveni, the commander-in-chief, said his government would continue to secure Uganda, despite volatilities in neighbouring countries, and modernise and professionalise the security forces. He promised to improve the welfare of the men and women in uniform and strengthen civil-military cooperation. Through Operation Shujaa, Uganda’s military remains fighting alongside the Congolese army against motley rebel and militia groups in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an ISIS-affiliated terrorist group, remains holed up in the jungles.
The ADF was a Ugandan rebel group, before UPDF firepower forced them to escape into Congo forests, from where they have allegedly attacked schools in western Ugandan and exploded home-made bombs in the capital, Kampala.
In the first week of June 2025, precisely on Uganda’s Martyrs Day, a cyclist and passenger died in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast near Ugandan Martyrs Shrine Munyonyo. Another alleged terrorist was gunned near Kalerwe Market in the northern part of Kampala. However, those attacks led to investigations into allegations that the explosions were planned in-house, leading to the arrest of the former Chief of Military Intelligence (CMI), now renamed the Defence Intelligence Security (DIS), and two directors — all still detained at Makindye Military Barracks.
Since then, no IED has exploded in Uganda, and President Museveni has stopped his regular televised briefing about the counter-ADF offensive.
In regard to improving security forces’ welfare, the government has included in the next Financial Year budget, to be read next week, a 25 percent pay raise for soldiers at the rank of Captain and below. The salaries of senior officers, which start from the rank of Major and upwards, have been doubled.
Similarly, the pay for junior police and prisons personnel is to rise by 25 percent, effective July 1, 2026. The army is also building new structures at barracks to improve accommodation for its rank-and-file and its new National Referral Hospital has changed the skyline of Mbuya, a city suburb. However, the army’s involvement before, during and after the elections early this year, and the social media gloating by the Chief of Defence Forces, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, about soldiers killing and arresting Opposition supporters drew criticism from activists and rights defenders, both in and outside Uganda.
Oil and gas
In his 2025 SONA, Mr Museveni said the government would work with the international oil companies including the China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC), Total Energies, and other partners to finalise the construction of the 1,443-kilometre East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) from Hoima in mid-western Uganda to Tanga in Tanzania. He further hinted on the signed Memorandum of Understanding with Alpha BMB Investment Group of the United Arab Emirates for the planned construction of an Oil Refinery in Buliisa District’s Industrial Park.
The President noted then that the government would prioritise the construction of refined petroleum products pipeline, and Kabalega Industrial Park to attract petro-chemical industries, among others. The President, however, did not say whether Uganda was on track to produce the first oil by next month as the government bigwigs and former line minister Ruth Nankabirwa repeatedly promised. Official records show that the two dominant firms – CNOON and Total Energies – have significantly invested in Uganda’s fledging oil sector.
In early May, CNOOC conducted a successful oil drilling exercise, which indicated readiness in extracting the oil. According to figures from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, and Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU), the oil projects are 80 percent complete. The Kingfisher Development Area under CNOOC, in particular, is 99 percent ready, while work at Tilenga Oil Development Area, operated by the French oil giant, is at 90 percent. With EACOP progress at 82 percent, it remains unclear whether Uganda’s first oil will be out by July, despite significant progress in related infrastructure development.
Infrastructure
President Museveni in his address also hinted at the commencement of the construction of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), which he had launched the previous year. No work, except payment to project-affected persons, has started. The World Bank in a meeting with the President in March, this year, committed to avail $650m to bankroll the long-delayed project, subject to technical, economic, commercial and legal feasibility studies. On roads, he pledged that 16 roads measuring a total 788.6 kilometres would be upgraded to bitumen, in addition to rehabilitation of the 79-kilometre Nebbi-Arua highway.
He also said that eight roads measuring 290.2km would be improved in the same financial year to first-class gravel standard, while 14 roads measuring 1,201.5km would undergo a massive repair and rehabilitation.
The works ministry records indicate that Uganda’s tarmacked national road network now stands at 6,338 kilometres, up from 6,199 kilometres, meaning the government over the past 12 months surfaced only 139 kilometres of road against a 789-kilometre target. Majority of these roads were earmarked to be constructed with funding under the Shs1.6 trillion supplementary funding which Parliament approved for the transport ministry on December 2, 2025. Although some of the works have started, delays in procurement and varied contractor performances have meant different levels of progress, including for major arteries such as Fortal – Bundibugyo, Gulu-Atiak-Nimule, Mubende-Kyenjojo, and Ntungamo-Rukungiri roads.
The government, with funding from the Japanese counterpart, is expected to start construction of a cable-stayed bridge on River Nile at Karuma, to more securely connect the rest of the country to northern Uganda, and onwards to larger South Sudan and DRC markets.