The economy is projected to grow by 6.4 percent in the 2025/26 financial year, up slightly from 6.3 percent in the 2024/25 financial year, according to preliminary estimates from Uganda Bureau of Statistics (Ubos). While this growth remains below government’s target of between 6.5 percent and 7 percent, it reflects the economy’s resilience amid global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and disruptions in international trade. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to rise from Shs227.9 trillion to Shs250.4 trillion, highlighting continued expansion across key sectors.
Backbone of the economy
The services sector remains Uganda’s largest economic pillar, contributing 42.1 percent of GDP in the 2025/26 financial year. The sector also recorded growth of 5.5 percent, slightly higher than the 5.4 percent registered the previous year, supported by trade and repair services, which grew by 6.9 percent. Financial and insurance activities expanded by 8.3 percent, while accommodation and food services increased by 7.7 percent. Information and communication services grew by 6.6 percent, while transport and storage activities expanded by 5.0 percent. The strong performance of financial services, tourism-related activities, and digital communications demonstrates the increasing importance of modern service industries in Uganda’s economy.
Agriculture
The agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector contributed 26.2 percent of GDP, up slightly from 26.1 percent in the previous financial year. The sector grew by 6.5 percent, making it one of the strongest performers. Growth was driven mainly by food crop production, which expanded by 4.9 percent, and cash crops, which registered a robust growth rate of 12.1 percent. Agriculture continues to play a critical role in supporting rural livelihoods, food security, exports, and household incomes. The strong growth in cash crops reflects improving performance in export-oriented agriculture.
Industry
The industry sector accounted for 24.1 percent of GDP, slightly down from 24.3 percent the previous year. However, the sector still achieved a solid 6.4 percent growth rate. The sector’s performance was driven by construction, which grew by 8.2 percent, manufacturing, which expanded by 5.5 percent, and electricity generation and supply, which recorded an impressive 14.4 percent growth. The strong performance in construction reflects continued investment in infrastructure, while growth in electricity supply signals increasing industrial capacity and economic modernization.
Government expects growth to accelerate towards 8 percent and beyond in the medium term, supported by oil and gas investments, increased exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), higher remittances, the Parish Development Model (PDM), and Emyooga. The long-term ambition is to achieve double-digit growth, reduce poverty, create nearly 885,000 jobs annually, and double the size of the economy by the 2029/30 financial year.
The latest figures show that while services remain the dominant contributor to gross domestic product, Uganda’s growth is becoming increasingly broad-based, with agriculture and industry also posting strong gains and providing a foundation for sustained economic transformation.