The burden of the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran is disproportionately and indiscriminately being carried by the developing countries through trade. Inferably, these are no ordinary times, the conflict epitomises a major a ticking seismic reconfiguration of global alliances that is driven by the changes of the balance of power toward East and waning dominance of the West.
Consequentially, it is transforming globalisation from a unified, efficiency-drive system into a fragmented autarkic ideologically aligned. The ramifications of this seismic shift will likely be dire and far-reaching. Thus, a policy intervention with a long-term view is needed.
For Kenya, these altercations are no longer abstract. Their effects are being transmitted and permeating through Kenya’ macroeconomic channels. Already there has been sharp increase oil prices, which are expectedly exerting inflationary pressures.
The Persian crisis has put the spotlight on separate and unequal global trading system, which continues to compromise Africa’s development.
Africa contributes approximately three percent to global trade and paradoxically she is the primary supplier of raw materials.
This trade imbalances are imputable to the lingering effects of colonial extractive policies that call for major diversification in favour of intra-Africa trade.
This diversification is embedded in the Africa’s Agenda 2063 and the new Agreement on African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)which provides free movement of persons, capital, goods and service to deepen economic integration and promotion of agricultural development, food security, industrialisation and structural economic transformation.
Seemingly, these developments are repositioning Kenya as a credible gateway to East and Central Africa region as well as political and economic focal point of the simmering global tectonic realignment.
President Ruto being the current Chair of the Committee of Heads of State and Government on the implementation of the AfCFTA, Kenya must leverage on the goodwill to become the regional champion and driver of the implementation of AfCFTA.
These regional and local changes have triggered notable public policy gaps. As a result, a new dawn of opportunities is incubating much-needed localised expertise that can infuse policy debates with rigorous evidence-based data and an authentic African perspective.
To align its future development aspirations to the continental vision and, Kenya must strategically take advantage of the evolving regional policy landscape in furtherance of its vision.
Specifically, Kenya must lobby to drive the AfCFTA implementation agenda by tapping think-tanks such as Kippra to become an affiliate of the Secretariat of AfCFTA with regional focus of East Africa.