What began as a public health alert is now sending ripples through Uganda’s economy. The latest Ebola outbreak is already disrupting tourism bookings, slowing cross-border trade with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and unsettling business confidence across key sectors that drive foreign exchange earnings.
While health authorities work to contain the virus, economists and industry players warn that the real cost may be felt far beyond hospitals, extending into lost income, stalled trade, and weakened investor confidence if the situation persists.
Uganda’s exposure is significant. Tourism earnings rose to about $1.7 billion (Shs6.1 trillion) in 2025, while exports to the Democratic Republic of Congo are estimated to range between $800 million and $1 billion annually. Given these figures, the DRC remains one of Uganda’s most important and strategic trading partners, leaving the economy vulnerable to health-related and regional disruptions.
Economists warn that Uganda risks losing key foreign exchange earnings from two of its most important sectors-tourism and exports-which are highly sensitive to instability.
Tourism hit as cancellations rise
Tourism, one of Uganda’s top foreign exchange earners, is already under significant strain, with tour operators reporting cancellations from international clients and a slowdown in new bookings following news of Ebola cases in the country.
Industry players say some confirmed visitors for June and July have postponed or cancelled their trips, while inquiries from overseas travel agents have also weakened amid growing uncertainty.
Rodgers Akampurira, a tour operator and chief executive officer of Travel Specialist Limited and Turigye Tours, says the sector is facing renewed pressure as travel confidence declines.
He explains that through the fleet of safari vehicles he coordinates, bookings are typically made weeks or months in advance by tour operators, travel agents, and guides.
However, he has recently received numerous cancellations from clients, with some refunds already processed while others remain pending.
‘June is usually a critical recovery period when many operators begin to regain financial stability,’ he said. Instead, several vehicles of his have remained parked for weeks without work, raising concerns across the sector about meeting operational costs, including paying guides, drivers, support staff, and fulfilling tax obligations.
He further warns that negative travel advisories about Uganda have a long-lasting impact on the sector, sometimes affecting travel decisions for up to two years even after conditions improve.
On the tour operations side, Akampurira says they have also been forced to refund tourists who had already confirmed their reservations.
Many of these travellers have opted to reroute their trips to neighbouring destinations such as Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda.
‘The financial impact has been significant, and to a large extent I have suffered losses amounting to millions of shillings,’ Akampurira said, adding that some imported vehicles remain stranded, further straining operations.
Beyond individual businesses, he warns that the wider tourism value chain is at risk, including drivers, guides, accommodation providers, and other service providers who depend heavily on tourism for their livelihoods.
Visitors
During its peak tourism seasons-spanning June through August and December through February, Uganda typically receives around 130,000 to 135,000 international visitors per month.
August is historically the busiest individual month, welcoming over 130,000 tourists on its own.
Overall, these two prime seasonal windows account for roughly 65 percent of the country’s total annual volume, which recently reached approximately 1.65 million visitors.
Speaking after the vetting process at Parliament, the recently appointed State Minister for Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities Susan Nakawuki Nsambu argued that information released during the peak tourism season was misinterpreted by the public, creating unnecessary fear despite what she described as a contained situation with only a few managed cases.
‘Hoteliers are crying, tour operators are crying, and tour guides are crying,’ she said, underscoring the immediate impact on tourism businesses.
Nakawuki added that the ripple effects are extending beyond the sector itself, affecting household livelihoods linked to tourism demand.
‘When people grow their tomatoes or their pineapples, they are eaten by tourists,’ she noted, pointing to how farmers are also feeling the downturn due to reduced visitor numbers and cancellations.
Regional trade under strain
Faustin Asiimwe, export manager at MM Integrated Steel Mills (U) Ltd, says the Ebola outbreak is beginning to take a toll on the company’s export business, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounts for about 80 percent of its regional sales.
According to Asiimwe, the outbreak has disrupted the movement of customers who ordinarily travel to Uganda to purchase and collect goods.
While cargo can still cross the border, many buyers have put transactions on hold because they are unable or unwilling to travel.
The disruption is especially challenging because the company’s business model relies heavily on face-to-face transactions involving large sums of money.
Asiimwe explains that some customers have attempted to send payments through agents, but the associated costs are substantial. In some cases, a customer sending as much as $130,000 can lose up to three percent of the transaction value in fees, making many buyers reluctant to proceed with purchases remotely.
MM Integrated Steel Mills, the makers of Kiboko Mabati, export roofing sheets, section tubes, plastic tanks, barrels, and other steel-related products across the region.
While the company also serves markets in South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Kenya, the DRC remains its most important destination.
The company exports an average of 600 tonnes of products every month, with around 480 tonnes (about 80 percent) going to the Congolese market. Asiimwe emphasized that any prolonged disruption in that market directly impacts MM Integrated Steel Mills’ business.
Economist’s perspective
Senior economist Fred Muhumuza says about 80 trucks were reportedly stranded at the border, unable to cross into the DRC due to ongoing border closures.
He warned that prolonged disruptions could weaken Uganda’s position as a regional trade hub and reduce export earnings at a time when the economy is seeking stronger external revenue sources.
‘While we cannot quantify the losses, since neither the Uganda Tourism Board nor the Uganda Revenue Authority has released figures on what could be lost from the Ebola outbreak, there is definitely going to be an impact on foreign exchange earnings.
There are already tourism cancellations, and household incomes will also be affected, especially for those incurring medical costs.
‘However, it is still difficult to give a clear estimate as the situation is evolving,’ he said.
The cross-border trade also supports thousands of livelihoods, particularly small-scale traders, transporters, and wholesalers who rely on daily movement between the two countries.
However, heightened health surveillance, screening measures, and movement controls at border points could slow cargo flows and increase transport costs, potentially affecting supply chains and earnings on both sides.
Government spending pressures are rising.
The outbreak is also expected to increase pressure on public finances as government agencies scale up emergency response efforts.
Resources are being directed toward surveillance systems, contact tracing, treatment centers, laboratory testing, protective equipment, and public awareness campaigns.
The World Health Organisation has estimated that more than $115 million is required over the next three months to support Ebola response operations in Uganda and the wider region.
While such spending is critical to saving lives and containing the outbreak, it also diverts funds from other national priorities such as infrastructure, education, and health system strengthening.
Investor confidence
Beyond direct trade and tourism effects, Ebola outbreaks often influence broader investor sentiment.
Although Uganda has previously demonstrated strong capacity to contain Ebola, uncertainty created by global media
coverage can temporarily affect investment decisions, particularly in sectors such as hospitality, aviation and services.
Business activity can also slow as consumers reduce travel, limit spending, and avoid public gatherings during periods of heightened fear.
Transporters, market vendors, and informal workers who depend on daily movement and cash flow are often the first to feel the economic slowdown.
Lessons from past outbreaks
Previous Ebola outbreaks in Uganda and the wider region show that economic disruption is often short-term when containment is swift.
However, delays in response or widespread transmission can significantly increase costs across multiple sectors.
Tourism recoveries, in particular, often take longer due to reputational effects, while trade flows tend to stabilise faster once border confidence is restored.
While Uganda’s health systems remain engaged in controlling the outbreak, early economic indicators suggest ripple effects are already being felt in tourism and trade.
The speed and effectiveness of containment efforts will determine whether Ebola remains a short-term shock or evolves into a broader economic setback affecting jobs, businesses, and National revenue streams.
For now, Uganda’s economic stability hinges not only on controlling the virus, but also restoring confidence among travelers, traders and investors who sustain the country’s key foreign exchange sectors.