Economists and budget analysts have warned that the proposed Shs84.3 trillion budget for the 2026/27 financial year may have a limited impact on the lives of ordinary Ugandans despite being the largest in the country’s history.
They argue that a significant share of the budget will be consumed by debt servicing and long-term industrialisation programmes, leaving limited resources for sectors that directly address household welfare and the rising cost of living.
Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group executive director Julius Mukunda says the budget reflects ambitions to accelerate industrialisation, infrastructure development, and wealth creation.
However, he questions whether the budget is affordable, sustainable, and capable of delivering meaningful results.
Centre for Policy Analysis executive director Timothy Chemonges shares similar concerns, saying the budget highlights development ambitions while exposing growing pressure on public finances.
Debt burden
Mukunda says public debt had reached Shs130.22 trillion by January 2026, noting that of the proposed Shs84.3 trillion budget, debt servicing alone is projected to consume Shs33.4 trillion, representing nearly 40 percent of total expenditure.
For every Shs100 collected in taxes, he says, Shs25 goes to interest payments alone, warning that increasing debt obligations are crowding out spending on critical sectors such as healthcare, education, and agriculture.
Prioritising livelihoods
Both Mukunda and Chemonges argue that government should emphasize sectors that directly improve household incomes and living standards.
Chemonges says agriculture, health, education, and job creation should receive greater attention because they have the most direct impact on livelihoods.
He argues that the success of the budget should be measured by improvements in citizens’ daily lives and not its overall size.
On his part, Mukunda notes that agriculture remains the primary source of livelihood for more than 60 percent of Ugandans but still faces a Shs273b funding gap for zonal mechanisation centres and breeding hatcheries.
He also highlights a Shs20b funding shortfall required to operationalise 158 constituency ambulances, arguing that the gap reflects misplaced spending priorities.
The education sector faces similar challenges, with Mukunda pointing out that the National Curriculum Development Centre requires Shs3.5b to complete the stalled A-Level syllabus review, while Uganda National Examinations Board needs Shs11.8b to train examiners on the new secondary school curriculum.
However, Mukunda says these relatively modest funding requirements remain unmet as debt servicing consumes an increasing share of public resources.
Pushing the alternative approach
The concerns raised by civil society mirror proposals previously advanced by the Opposition.
In April, Leader of Opposition Joel Ssenyonyi unveiled an alternative budget framework under the theme Safeguarding Lives, Livelihoods and Institutions, arguing that a leaner Shs71.4 trillion budget would be more realistic and better suited to address the challenges faced by Ugandans.
Public concern has also intensified following government’s decision to discontinue payments to medical interns, with some fearing that the decision could place additional pressure on already overstretched public health facilities.
Some see opportunity
Not everyone shares the doubtful outlook for the budget themed: Full monetisation of Uganda’s economy through commercial agriculture, industrialisation, expanding services, digital transformation, and market access.
Serere District Woman MP Esther Lucy Achom says the budget presents opportunities for Ugandans to increase their incomes in line with the ten-fold growth agenda, noting that programmes such as Emyooga and Parish Development Model will help to lift communities out of poverty if implemented effectively.
She also points to allocations for agro-industrialisation, tourism, and mineral development as evidence that government is investing in productive sectors, even as she acknowledges concerns about the growing debt burden.