‘There is food at home’. That is what my mum used to say when my siblings and I asked for chips-chaps or chips-chicken while driving home from church on Sundays. At the time, it felt disappointing, but adulthood has made the lesson clearer. Imagine depending on a restaurant for every meal. What happens if it closes, prices suddenly double, or there is a shortage, and it simply cannot serve you? That is when you appreciate the value of having food at home and the ability to cook for yourself.
In many ways, that is similar to how energy works. For Uganda, it may seem easier to export crude oil and import refined products from countries with large refineries. Many countries do exactly that. However, relying entirely on external suppliers also means depending on decisions, systems, and supply chains outside the country’s control. Recent conflicts in the Gulf region disrupted global energy supplies and demonstrated how vulnerable countries become when they depend heavily on imported fuel. Once you rely on others for something as essential as energy, the importance of having your own ‘food at home’ becomes much clearer.
Firstly, cooking at home lets you plan better. You decide what, when and how much to cook. In energy, this is what economists call energy security. The ability to have reliable and predictable access to the fuel you need, without being fully exposed to disruptions outside your control. Uganda’s demand for petroleum products continues to rise. This matters because Uganda’s demand for petroleum products continues to rise steadily. According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, consumption exceeded 6.5 million litres per day in 2023, equivalent to roughly 41,000 barrels daily and representing a 10 percent increase from the previous year.
At present, nearly all of this demand is met through imports, which leaves the country vulnerable to shipping delays, supply shortages, and regional logistics challenges. Uganda’s planned refinery, with a proposed capacity of 60,000 barrels per day, would help meet current and growing demand locally. Although it would not completely shield Uganda from global market pressures, it would reduce dependence on foreign supply chains and provide the country with greater stability during periods of disruption.
Second, having food at home can reduce costs by avoiding constant spending outside the household. Economists describe this as import substitution: replacing imported goods with locally produced alternatives so that less money is spent abroad and more circulates within the domestic economy. Petroleum products remain one of Uganda’s largest imports, costing the country more than USD 2bn in 2023. When fuel is imported, money leaves the economy to pay foreign refiners and suppliers. Refining crude oil locally would allow a significant share of this spending to remain within Uganda through local businesses, workers, suppliers, and government revenues.
Finally, cooking at home keeps more value within the household. Uganda’s case goes even further because the country already has the ‘garden’: its own crude oil reserves. Exporting crude only to import refined products back is like harvesting your own matooke, then paying someone else to cook and sell it back to you. When crude oil is exported and refined products imported, much of the value created along the supply chain is captured elsewhere. This is reflected in the gap between crude oil prices and refined petroleum products sold in Uganda.
For example, if we considered April 2026 crude oil prices, if Uganda’s crude sells at a net-backed price of about USD 100 per barrel, while the combined value of refined products is around USD 200 per barrel, the difference of USD 100 per barrel, represents value added through refining and distribution. A domestic refinery would not capture all of that value, but it would allow Uganda to retain a meaningful share through refining margins, local supply chains, jobs, and tax revenues.
Beyond the refinery itself, this can also stimulate other industries such as petrochemicals, plastics, fertilisers, etc. At the end of the day, a refinery gives Uganda greater control over something as essential as energy. I suppose mothers are usually right: it is always better to have some food at home than to depend entirely on eating out.