Peso dips as oil prices rise on reignited war

THE Philippine peso slumped anew to a record low of P61.75 against the dollar on Wednesday on the back of a re-escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran which led to elevated crude oil prices.

Data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines (BAP) showed this rate is .5 or half-a-centavo weaker than its previous finish of P61.745 against the greenback on Tuesday.

The P61.75 per-dollar level was last seen on May 18 and 19 of this year, BAP data also noted.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong and Co. explained that the peso fell after the greenback strengthened further on elevated crude oil prices as US and Iranian attacks escalated, renewing inflation concerns.

As such, the foreign exchange analyst said he expects the currency to range 61.60-61.90 levels in the near-term.

For his part, Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at the Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC), said the peso-dollar exchange rate lingered at 61.75 after global crude oil prices posted new one-month highs lately.

‘Global crude oil prices posted new 1-month highs lately. Brent crude oil price was higher at US$92 per barrel levels [vs. US$88 since late last week], the highest since June 11, 2026, but still among 4-month lows,’ added Ricafort.

For his part, John Paolo R. Rivera, Senior Research Fellow at Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) said this ‘largely reflects external factors, particularly the stronger US dollar, expectations of higher US interest rates, and heightened global uncertainty.’

While a weaker peso raises the cost of imports and may add to inflationary pressures, Rivera said it also benefits remittances and exports.

As such, he pointed out: ‘We should focus less on a single record-low level and more on whether the depreciation becomes prolonged and disorderly.’

‘The country’s solid external buffers including ample international reserves and steady foreign exchange inflows from remittances, tourism, and the IT-BPM sector should help cushion excessive volatility,’ added Rivera.

Last week, BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, said it expects the Philippine peso to remain under pressure in the coming months and trade within a P61-P63 against the dollar range.

‘A renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict, US dollar firmness and seasonal peak in import demand will weigh on the peso in the near term,’ added BMI.

Within the trading session, the local currency’s strongest level was at P61.73 against the dollar while its weakest was at P61.75 against the greenback.

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