Global commodities trader Glencore expects its marketing division to post an adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of $3.3 billion for the first half of 2026, surpassing the unit’s earnings for the entire 2025 as heightened volatility triggered by the US-Iran conflict created lucrative trading opportunities across global energy markets.
The Swiss-based trading giant disclosed the outlook in its half-year production report released on Wednesday, citing that the expected first-half marketing performance reflects strong trading conditions during a period of exceptional volatility.
Glencore is due to publish its detailed half-year financial results next week, when it is expected to provide a breakdown of contributions from its oil, gas and other commodity trading businesses.
Gary Nagle, Chief Executive Officer, said the company delivered a strong operational performance during the first six months of the year while also benefiting from robust conditions in its marketing business.
‘In our Marketing segment, we expect to report a strong half-year Marketing Adjusted EBIT of c.$3.3 billion,’ Nagle said.
The projected profit is already higher than the $2.9 billion adjusted EBIT recorded by Glencore’s marketing division for the entire 2025 financial year, putting the company on course for one of its strongest trading performances on record if current market conditions persist.
The windfall follows months of sharp swings in crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refined fuel prices after renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and later spread to the Red Sea.
Those geopolitical tensions pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel at their peak, creating significant arbitrage and trading opportunities for global commodity merchants.
The performance mirrors Glencore’s record earnings in 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices soaring above $120 per barrel and upended global energy flows.
That year, the company’s marketing division generated a record $6.4 billion in adjusted EBIT, driven by successful trading across crude oil, LNG, refined products, coal and logistics infrastructure.
The latest outlook highlights how periods of geopolitical disruption can significantly boost the earnings of commodity trading houses, whose global networks enable them to profit from price dislocations, regional supply imbalances and heightened market volatility.
Glencore is not alone in benefiting from the market turbulence. Integrated energy majors with large trading operations have also reported stronger trading conditions. Shell has already indicated that it expects significantly higher oil and LNG trading earnings in the second quarter as volatility linked to the Iran conflict reshaped global energy markets.
Beyond its trading business, Glencore also reported solid production performance across several key commodities during the first half of the year.
Nagle said production from the company’s own assets was broadly in line with expectations, with quarter-on-quarter increases in zinc, nickel, gold, steelmaking coal, and energy coal output. Meanwhile, full-year production guidance for copper, zinc, and nickel remains unchanged.