When Senator Saliu Mustapha, the Kwara Central representative at the upper chamber in the National Assembly, entered the APC governorship race, supporters expected that, whatever the outcome, he would remain one of the major beneficiaries of the party’s succession plan.
Weeks after the primary, however, events have taken a different turn.
With Speaker Yakubu Danladi Salihu emerging as the party’s governorship candidate and Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s name now appearing as the APC candidate for Kwara Central Senatorial District, attention has shifted from the governorship contest to a new question. And this is what next for one of the state’s most influential politicians?
Mustapha was among the strongest aspirants in the governorship race.
Long before the primary, he had built a campaign across the state and many of his supporters believed his years of pursuing the governorship would finally pay off.
Even after Governor AbdulRazaq openly endorsed Ambassador Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki, Mustapha remained in the race. He repeatedly said he was focused on becoming governor and dismissed reports linking him with the Senate ticket.
The primary, intriguingly, eventually produced Speaker Danladi as the APC governorship candidate, bringing an end to Mustapha’s ambition to fly the party’s flag in 2027.
Like every major primary, attention quickly turned to reconciliation.
Within APC circles, there was widespread belief that leaders who lost the governorship ticket would be accommodated to keep the party united. Governor AbdulRahman Abdulrazaq had even said the party would compensate those who contested with appointments.
In Mustapha’s case, many party members believed the easiest option was to allow him return to the Senate since he was already representing Kwara Central as a first timer.
That expectation has now faded.
With INEC publishing Governor AbdulRazaq as the APC candidate for the Kwara Central Senate seat, the political calculations have changed completely.
The development means that if nothing changes before the election, Mustapha could leave office in 2027 without the governorship ticket he sought and without returning to the Senate.
That possibility has opened a fresh debate within the APC and among political observers. The situation has also brought back discussions about the relationship between Mustapha and Governor AbdulRazaq. For months before the primary, there were reports of a cold relationship between both men. Supporters on both sides openly disagreed over political issues, while allegations also emerged that some constituency projects linked to the senator faced challenges in the state.
Although many of those claims were never officially confirmed, they have continued to shape public perception of events within the party. Against that background, many observers now see the Senate ticket as more than an ordinary nomination.
To them, it is part of the wider struggle over political influence in Kwara APC after Governor AbdulRazaq leaves office in 2027.
Mustapha is not just another politician within the party.
Before becoming a senator, he had built a political network through years of scholarships, empowerment programmes, support for party members and grassroots mobilisation. Those activities gave him supporters across the state and strengthened his standing within the APC.
His election to the Senate in 2023 further increased his political profile and many believed it placed him in a stronger position to pursue the governorship.
With both opportunities now appearing out of reach, attention has turned to his next move. However, Mustapha and other members of the G15 have refused to accept the outcome of the governorship primary, insisting that the process is not over.
The group, made up of leading governorship aspirants and other party stakeholders, including Ambassador Yahaya Seriki, Senator Oloriegbe, Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa (BOB) among others, has maintained that the primary that produced Danladi did not reflect the agreement reached before the exercise.
The group has continued to demand that one of its members, which include senator Mustapha, should emerge as the APC governorship candidate.
One of the group’s leaders, Salman Jawondo, recently told Daily Trust that the struggle would continue until September 19, the deadline for the substitution of candidates.
Asked what the group would do if Danladi remained the candidate after that date, he said they would cross that bridge when they got there.
That position shows that, despite the announcement of Danladi as the APC candidate, the internal battle within the party is far from over.
Reacting to the development, an aide of senator Mustapha, Alabi Abdulkareem, told Daily Trust that his principal’s decision would be guided by the collective direction of the G15 coalition and engagements with critical stand the outcome of consultations with his own political structure, supporters, and associates across Kwara State.
‘Senator Saliu Mustapha remains one of the foremost stakeholders in the political landscape of Kwara State. With the 2027 general election shaping up to be a defining moment in the state’s political history, his role in the succession process will remain significant.
‘By the grace of God, regardless of the current developments within the Kwara APC, Senator Mustapha will continue to be a relevant force and an active participant in shaping the future of Kwara State.
‘Senator Mustapha is also a key member of the coalition of APC stakeholders under the banner of the G15, a group advocating far-reaching reforms and a return to the ideals of inclusive, transparent, and responsible leadership in Kwara State.
‘Their engagement is driven by a shared commitment to strengthening the party, safeguarding the values of the Otoge movement, and ensuring that the 2027 political transition reflects the collective aspirations of party members and the people of the state.
‘Accordingly, Senator Mustapha’s political decisions ahead of the 2027 elections will be guided by two overriding considerations: the collective direction ultimately adopted by the G15 coalition following its ongoing consultations and engagements with critical stakeholders, and the outcome of consultations with his own political structure, supporters, and associates across Kwara State. It is these collective deliberations, rather than personal ambition alone, that will shape his eventual political direction for 2027, by the will of God’, he submitted.
For his part, the President of the Nigerian Society of International Affairs (NSIA), Prof. Hassan Ajisafe Saliu, said the political space is gradually closing for the senator and other members of the G15 to actualize their ambitions.
Although he did not completely rule out last minute political developments before the September 19 deadline for substitution of candidates.
According to him, many had expected the crisis within the Kwara APC to be resolved through political reconciliation, but recent developments suggest that such expectations may no longer be realistic.
‘All along the expectation was that some miracle would happen and somebody would be reconciled with somebody. But now that the miracle has failed to happen, it means we have to take it from there,’ he said.
Saliu said although the G15 still believes there is room for changes before the September 19 deadline, every passing day is making such a possibility more difficult.
‘Let us not rule out any possibility. But if anything will happen, it will happen in the last two months. To the extent that nothing happens, one may want to think that it will be too risky for any contrary thing to happen,’ he said.
The political scientist also said the options outside the APC appear limited, noting that major opposition parties have already produced their candidates, making it difficult for any of the aggrieved aspirants to secure governorship or other tickets elsewhere.
He said the most realistic option, if the current situation remains unchanged, could be for the aggrieved politicians to align with another political platform rather than seek fresh nominations.
Asked whether the G15 leaders would remain in the APC, Saliu said it was too early to reach a conclusion because the group still believes the struggle is not over.
‘For now, there is a coalition, there is an agreement and there is an alliance among them, believing that the door is not yet closed. They are entitled to that. But by the time the chips are down, it is likely we will see another scenario,’ he said.
However, it appears Mustapha and the G15 are already considering options outside the APC.
The group has initiated moves to explore alternative political platforms ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The development is significant because it potentially gives the aggrieved APC stakeholders a platform through which they can continue their political engagement even if the internal battle within the ruling party does not produce the outcome they are seeking.
The new alignment also suggests that the group’s options are no longer limited to waiting for a change in the APC’s candidate list before the September 19 substitution deadline.
While its members have continued to insist that their struggle within the APC is not over, the emergence of TOP provides a possible vehicle for a wider political realignment ahead of the 2027 elections.
For Mustapha, the development could therefore prove crucial in determining what comes next.
Whether he ultimately remains within the APC, seeks accommodation through a political settlement, or joins a broader opposition arrangement may depend not only on the outcome of the substitution window but also on the direction eventually taken by TOP and the political structures behind it.
What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is that the question of Mustapha’s political future can no longer be viewed solely through the lens of the APC governorship primary.
With the senator’s return ticket now in question, the G15 expanding its political reach, the coming weeks could determine whether the current crisis ends in reconciliation, a fresh internal battle or a broader realignment of political forces in Kwara.