West Africa could unlock a cumulative $3 trillion energy market by 2035, but only if its 16 nations abandon fragmented national strategies in favour of an integrated regional framework, according to Suleiman Yahyah, Chairman of Rosehill Group Limited Advisory Limited.
Speaking at the West Africa Refined Fuel Market Conference in Abuja on Wednesday, Yahyah warned that relying solely on standalone infrastructure projects would delay the region’s energy transition by decades. Instead, he advocated for a system-wide overhaul driven by harmonised product specifications, shared data protocols, unified energy contracts, and a central dispute resolution framework.
The conference, themed ‘Funding West Africa Infrastructure and Distribution to Create a Transparent Market for Regional Price Benchmarks,’ was co-hosted by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), S and P Global Commodity Insights, and the West Africa Regulators Forum.
Yahyah argued that the region could no longer be described merely as an emerging market with huge potential because developments in refining and energy infrastructure were beginning to change the structure of the market.
‘Once upon a time, a few months ago, this market was full of potential. But a couple of months have changed the dynamics, and we are now managing six steps for emerging markets in the energy platforms. With the presentation done yesterday and the big investments in refining and changing dynamics in global markets, we are no longer a potential; we are now at the crossroads for an infant or emerging market composition,’ he said.
Yahyah noted that the region must now build an efficient cross-border energy framework that facilitates the seamless flow of resources, capital, and data. He cautioned that relying on isolated projects would take decades, whereas an integrated market structure would far more quickly resolve current supply and demand disparities.
The national honouree said, ‘How do you get there? If we think in projects, it will take us many, many years to get there. But if we think in systems, perhaps we can accelerate the correction of today’s imbalances. So, what’s the next step? West Africa will stop competing nationally and transact regionally.
‘That means we harmonise activities so that an operator with a license in Ghana can operate in Nigeria and can trade in Nigeria. And that will mean that we have common product specifications, we have shared data standards, we have a modern energy contract, we have infrastructure to drive it, and we have the regional dispute resolution mechanism. If we do that, it is possible that by 2035, we can have a market that is $3 trillion cumulative.’
‘And this would mean, therefore, that the market has debt, it has integration, it is connected to global platforms, and the fiscal system where we see the fiscal system where we see the fiscal transaction, like if you look at the electricity market, a lot of cables connecting the region, the gas market, but trade is between 8 to 12 percent. So, essentially, the market now can converge where transactions are not only stagnant, but they are following the flow of opportunities.’
Yahyah said Africa’s enormous population and energy resources had not translated into adequate access to affordable and clean energy.
He argued that the opportunity for the region was not simply to produce more oil and gas but to capture more of the financial value created by energy trading, market information, risk management and price discovery.
He cited global benchmark and market institutions, exchanges and data providers as examples of entities that derive enormous commercial value from the infrastructure surrounding commodity markets.
‘These institutions, they don’t own molecules; they don’t own the resources. What they own is knowledge; they own methodologies, they own technology, and they have very talented people who drive these markets,’ he said.
Yahyah stressed the need for West Africa to develop its market infrastructure while establishing strategic partnerships with global institutions rather than attempting to recreate everything from scratch.
Also speaking to Journalists at the event, Rabiu Umar, Authority Chief Executive, NMDPRA said that the major focus of the conference is to move the region towards an integrated market, and ensure that each country leaverage its capacity. This approach he said, will prevent duplicate systems and ensure proper integration, setting the stage for concrete progress within a couple of months.
Umar also said that there is need to unify the quality of petroleum products available in the region, noting that the price for each quality varies.
‘So if you have 50 PPM product or you have a 200 PPM product, they don’t price the same way. So the 1st thing we are trying to do through the West Africa regulators forum is to make sure that there is a uniformity in terms of the product quality specification.
‘And the next step is to look at the liquidity, because if you do not have the molecules, it’s difficult to have a price benchmark. And then the third one is then to look at the infrastructure, which basically is to say, who has competitive advantage where, and how do we address all the trade barriers in terms of custom, in terms of crossing from one country to another, such that there will be free flow of petroleum products across the borders.
‘So that way there will not be duplication of every single infrastructure. That way you have proper integration, and I believe that within the next couple of months, we should begin to see concrete results.’