RISING temperatures, acidifying seas, and extreme weather are no longer just environmental concerns. Regional security experts and diplomats warn they are now security threats that demand Asean move beyond its traditional nonintervention policy.
Speaking at a Manila conference sponsored by the Stratbase Institute and the German Embassy, Philippine Special Envoy for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Maria Antonia YuloLoyzaga said climate change is a ‘convergent risk’ that cuts across food, energy, and geopolitical stability.
‘Changes in temperature and rainfall are inextricably linked to availability, access and affordability of resources, as well as the resilience of ecosystems and infrastructure that support them,’ she stressed.
YuloLoyzaga pointed to rice yield declines, looming rainfall shortages in Mindanao during the projected Super El Niño of 2026-27, and the vulnerability of sea lanes and undersea cables as examples of how climate shocks cascade into social unrest and economic disruption.
‘There are Asean Agreements on Transboundary Haze, Food Security, Biodiversity and, most recently, Maritime Cooperation. All of these intersect climate security, but this fragmentation still suggests siloed decisionmaking and implementation,’ the former environment secretary said.
She also underscored the Philippines’s domestic planning.
While the National Adaptation Plan identifies the cost of inaction within the 2030 decade at between P1.2 trillion and P1.4 trillion, the government is strengthening localization and interagency coordination.
To enhance prevention and preparedness within a limited fiscal space, the Office of Civil Defense is drafting new strategic engagements with the private sector and national and foreign humanitarian and security actors. This proactive planning, she said, draws directly from the painful lessons of Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, when the country had to coordinate 14 different military organizations and more than 40 major NGOs for emergency response and recovery.
German Ambassador Andreas Pfaffernoschke echoed the call to break silos.
‘Too long we have been discussing climate change in one room, conflict and security in another room. But the people of Southeast Asia do not experience these challenges in separate rooms. They experience them simultaneously,’ he said.
He urged Asean to treat climate change as a ‘cooperation multiplier,’ noting that shared rivers, seas, and disasters create reasons to communicate and cooperate.
Dr. Mely CaballeroAnthony of Nanyang Technological University was more blunt: ‘The assumption could be made that our way of doing things is no longer feasible. Strict adherence to nonintervention has historically prevented Asean from addressing shared risks.’
She cited transboundary haze, Laos’s upstream hydropower projects, and South China Sea tensions as flashpoints where sovereignty norms block collective action.
DENR Undersecretary Analiza RebueltaTeh proposed a shared regional marine and hydrological early warning system.
‘Natural ecosystems do not respect national borders. Governments must talk to each other about common problems,’ Rebuelta-Teh said.
Lukas Rttinger, senior advisor of Berlin-based research group adelphi, also suggested that Asean build a ‘regionally owned process and institutional backbone.’
‘Waiting for global consensus will not resolve local security pressures. What works are solution narratives that show how integrated climatepeace projects can improve livelihoods while easing resource disputes,’ Rttinger said.
DENR Secretary Miguel Cuna reinforced the need for unified regional action.
‘No Asean member state can address these challenges entirely on its own. Environmental resilience and lasting peace share the same principle. We must act before vulnerability becomes crisis. Then we will have strengthened the conditions for peace itself,’ Cuna said in a video message.