The geostrategic tectonic plates are shifting. And that shift is happening at an unprecedented hypervelocity. The resultant has been reconfiguration, recalibration, rebalancing and reshaping of geostrategic postures. New political and security alliances are taking shape and form. Long-standing security policies and postures are quickly being abandoned. Japan being the utmost profound example of this development. Japan’s 2026 Defense White Paper, indicates a clear abandonment of its traditional passive-containment posture, to offensive one. In the White Paper, the Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government characterise China as ‘the greatest strategic challenge,’ and highlights China-Russia relations as causing strategic anxiety in East Asia. Furthermore, Japan has recently launched its centralised National Intelligence Bureau (NIB).
In the context of this unravelling geostrategic environment, Pew Research Center has in July 2026, released a report on a survey they conducted in 36 countries looking at how views of the U.S. and China compare around the world. The survey, considered the following three variables; ratings of their presidents, their respect for personal freedoms, and their approaches to foreign policy. The results of the survey demonstrate that China is now seen more positively in the world than the U.S. Furthermore, the survey indicates that the world has more confidence in President Xi Jing pin than President Donald Trump. Even in places traditionally considered US’ sphere of influence, Canada, Mexico and Latin America, people view China more positively than the U.S. What is more interesting is that, even in Europe, President Xi Jing pin is still highly-rated than President Trump with UK giving him highest favorability rating at 37%. Similarly, people in the 36 surveyed countries see China as a more reliable partner than the U.S. and say China contributes to peace and stability around the world. The survey indicates that in Latin America, people are profusely of the view that the U.S. interferes in the affairs of other countries.
But the results of the survey are not surprising at all. Actually, in context of the unravelling Great Power competition, they are a true reflection of China’s strategic supremacy over the US. In fact, much this outcome, came largely be attributed as strategic own-goal by the US. Since coming into the oval office, President Trump has been at war, literally and figuratively. And it is war of attrition; against everyone and everything. His adversaries, mostly imaginary, spans from Africa through Europe to Asia. Whether by design or by default, Trump is inadvertently rearranging the world. By word and deed, Trump subscribes to a cutthroat world where norms and values count for nothing. Like Ebenezer Scrooge, in A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens, all relationships are transactional, and outcomes ultimately reflect the naked exercise of power. But that is not the scary part. The scary part is his recent hint at possibility of a third term in office. No matter how ridiculous this may sound, Trump unlike other politicians, always follows his word to the letter. By now, he probably has already commissioned someone to painstakingly go through the US Constitution to search for every possible loophole, to fulfil the ambition.
Trump is a man who has mastered the art of living happily side by side with ridiculousness. Let us be reminded that, he owes his entire political career to weird ideas. He has single-handedly built a quasi-cultic political movement, ‘MAGA’ out of these weird ideas. The weirder the idea, the more politically sexy it is, to his support base. His popular vote has grown by over 14 million since his 2016 victory. And he is enjoying the dividends. As things stand, the world wakes up every day, to wonder at his every action. And he never disappoints. True to his campaign promises, Trump has launched a nuclear bomb of a trade war, leaving even his closest allies, Europe, scrambling for bomb shelter. The tariffs are as extreme as are comical. The tariffs ranged from 10 percent to 145 percent, and still counting in the case of China. While the rest of the world has been thrown into panic, China remained calm, but thoroughly proportionate in response. Perhaps credit goes to the Chinese intelligence services, who seem to have made accurate estimates on Trump’s course of action. Trump is clearly employing the tariffs to derive strategic capitulation from the rest of the world, in particular, China. However, Trump must know that, capitulation is a means, not an end. As such, there is strategic incentive for countries, especially those with limited trade links with the US, to cave into Trump’s demands. It only serves to soothe his pride, but does not upend the balance of power.
In the context of the unravelling strategic environment, the strategic end-goal of Trump’s tariffs is already a lost course, as their long-term costs outweigh the benefits for the US. These tariffs, are a strategic blunder that carries the potential to push the rest of the world towards China, catapulting it to sole global superpower, and inadvertently bringing back unipolarism. The US and its allies, have been playing a catch-up to China in geostrategic competition, especially in the Global South. Trump’s pullback of American aid is likely to catalyse erosion of American influence and soft power to the benefit of China. With the tariffs, Trump has literally turned back on his traditionally dependable allies. This behaviour ruins relationships and collaborations in all fronts, including multilateral and bilateral security arrangements, consequently casting the US as an outright adversary than an ally. Eventually, many of US allies will seek refuge on China, which is already the largest trading partner for over 120 countries and is seeking to expand its military footprint across the globe. At the present moment, no country command such strategic weight, to counter-balance China. Europe is still struggling to find its strategic balance after Trump’s sudden political, economic and military decoupling.
Riddled with inherent contradictions, it may take Europe a decade or two to distinctly define its security and foreign policy posture away from the US. The US’ foreign policy is now driven, in part at least, by the imperatives of its domestic culture wars. As such, security of Europe has become entangled in the battle between two polarised and mutually antagonistic visions of what the US stands for. In this environment, China stands ready to reap strategic dividends from Trump’s trade war and increase its investment in soft power and consolidate influence across much of the world through various instruments including, the Belt and Road Initiative. When General Michael Langley, former Commander of U.S. Africa Command, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee he described US foreign aid as ‘needed capabilities’ to counter China in the African continent. He also highlighted the need for the US to out-compete China in the security cooperation arena, at the same time acknowledging that, Africa relies heavily on China’s economic and infrastructure investments. The securocrats like General Langley, understands the importance of ‘3D’ approach which synchronises, diplomacy, development, and defense in Great Power play.
Unlike Mexico, which relies on the U.S. market for 83% of its total exports, China sells only 16% of its total exports to the US, which implies a diversified export base that allows it to be more resilient to Trump’s trade war. But with this vantage point, China would not be seeking to play ‘Father Christmas.’ Just like the US, it will leverage on its pole position and soft power to aggressively pursue its national interests which include, but not limited to access to raw materials, political support at international fora, and deals to build, operate, or access dual-use infrastructure. Further, Trump’s tariffs are an opportunity for China to consolidate its dominant position in BRICS economies. They are also likely to embolden China to upend the strategic balance in the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region to its favour, leaving both Japan and South Korea nervous.