Explanations abound for the outcome of the Osun governorship election, held on Saturday, August 15, 2026. One set of explanations focuses on why and how the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Oyebamiji, lost the election. Another set focuses on why and how the incumbent Governor, Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, won the election. Woven into the explanations on both sides are also some conspiracy theories. In Part I of this series, the focus is on the first set of explanations: Why did the APC lose?
Ordinarily, governorship elections are viewed as a referendum on the incumbent Governor, especially where such a Governor is seeking reelection for another term. That was the expectation during the Osun governorship election held on Saturday, August 15, 2026, where Governor Ademola Adeleke was seeking reelection.
However, the election turned out to be a referendum on the immediate past Governor of the state and currently Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Isiaka Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress. Although Oyetola was not on the ballot, his party’s candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, was viewed as his stooge or placeholder for his second term, a view reproduced repeatedly by Adeleke during the campaign. Oyebamiji was the Commissioner for Finance in Oyetola’s government (2018-2022)
Why and how did it come to this?
It all began with a series of inconvenient truths and false starts. First, Governor Adeleke visited President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on June 3, 2025, preparatory to defecting to the APC to avoid the impending rupture of his former party, the Peoples Democratic Party. The move was resisted and ultimately rejected by the leadership of the Osun APC, apparently for good reason: The image of a ‘dancing Governor’ with questionable educational pedigree, as Adeleke was perceived, was considered an affront on Osun, a state endowed with a high number of seasoned politicians, famous professionals, internationally recognised religious leaders, and a high concentration of higher institutions of learning. But another subtext of the rejection was the fear that, if accepted into the APC, Adeleke, as incumbent Governor, would automatically become the leader of the party in the state. It was believed that this did not go well with Oyetola, the de facto leader of the party.
In the meantime, Oyetola reportedly was preparing to run for another term, having lost reelection in 2022 to the same Adeleke. However, Oyetola officially dropped the venture on July 25, 2025, about a month after Adeleke’s defection overtures.
Then came the APC governorship primary in December 2025. In the name of consensus candidacy, candidate election became candidate selection. To be fair, this method was used in other states by the APC with variable outcomes. For example, it was managed well in Lagos state, but it ended in controversy in neighbouring Ogun state. The process of candidate selection in Osun was messier and much more controversial.
At least seven aspirants were disqualified, including former Deputy Governors, former Senators, and a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, on the argument that they did not provide proof of sponsorship as required by the party constitution. At the end of the day, only Abiola Jimoh and Bola Oyebamiji were cleared for the primary. Subsequently, Oyebamiji was selected by consensus arrangement. This was interpreted by the disqualified aspirants and their supporters as working to answer, that is, that the process was skewed toward the choice of Oyebamiji as the party’s candidate.
When I asked one of the disqualified aspirants whether he sought to inspect Oyebamiji’s application to verify compliance with the constitutional requirements, he looked at me and laughed, saying, ‘Prof, haah, I can’t believe you are asking me this question. But I will answer you, even though I know that you are a supporter of Oyebamiji. As a well-known political consultant, are you telling me that you don’t know that Oyebamiji would have been coached on how to package his application so it would be different from ours? Are you saying that, if I seek to inspect it, they won’t secretly insert what was missing before they show it to me?’
His answer was laced with two interesting features. One is his knowledge of my relationship with the Oyetola administration which Oyebamiji served as Commissioner for Finance. The other is capitalising on the trust deficit in Nigerian politics, politicians, and political processes, by casting doubt on possible verification adventure.
Finally, the appeasement of the most aggrieved candidate, namely, Iyiola Omisore, was left to the last minute, after which he had made up his mind on what he would do, namely, to urge his supporters to work for Adeleke’s reelection. Here was a candidate who (a) was a Deputy Governor, (b) a two-term Senator of the Federal Republic, (c) twice ran for Governor of Osun state on different party platforms, and (d) last served as the National Secretary of the APC. Moreover, he viewed himself, and his supporters agreed with him, as having assisted Oyetola to defeat Adeleke during the rerun in a few polling units in the inconclusive governorship election in 2018. He placed third in that election. After the election, Omisore defected to the APC and Oyetola warmly embraced him, boasting that, unknown to the people, Omisore had been his friend for a long time. To be sure, Omisore’s slate might not have been clean, but he was no mean political figure in Osun politics.
At the end of the day, the above developments were packaged, rightly or wrongly, as an albatross on Oyetola and sold to voters as such by the Adeleke camp. The developments complicated an existing division within the APC, which peaked during the 2022 governorship election, and was partly responsible for defeat in that election. In 2026, the number of aggrieved party members had grown, following the disqualification of many aspirants during the various primaries, especially the governorship primary. Moreover, party members were angry at Oyetola for allegedly loading government appointments with his allies and close associates. A similar accusation intensified the division within the party in 2022. There was a mismatch between the range and intensity of grievances and the party’s appeasement measures.
Unfortunately, many sycophants and media spokespersons screened the candidate and party leaders from the reality on the ground, by obscuring the truth during the campaign. For example, Remi Omowaye, during his media rounds, took a lot of mileage out of the photograph of a crack on the road built by Adeleke, prompting derisive comments from voters, such as, ‘did your administration do anything at all to that road when you were there?’ Similarly, the landmark Lagere Flyover Bridge, built and commissioned by Adeleke in Ile-Ife in 2026, was derided by the APC during the campaign to the chagrin of Ife residents, forgetting that Oyetola’s administration also built and commissioned a Flyover Bridge at Ola-Oluwa junction in Osogbo in 2022.
Alarmed by the level of grievances expressed by party members, I conducted a limited straw poll in April 2026, with even more alarming results. I shared them with some party leaders and Oyebamiji’s friends. I also sent messages to Oyebamiji himself, including, ‘I have seen claims and counterclaims about who will win Osun governorship race. The only useful scientific basis for such claims is a thorough opinion poll. I have been trying to reach you over the need for a poll’ (April 17, 2026) and ‘The result of my preliminary straw poll on who will win in Osun is doubtful for APC and even more so when based on party candidates. Only a comprehensive poll can show necessary gaps to fill. Please get one done soon’ (April 28, 2026). There was no response. But this is only part of the story.