This is a reiteration of my several contributions on the worrisome situations of food insecurity, and cost of living crises that Nigerians are facing; and additional reminders for governments to consider while trying to alleviate the situations.
Security as a critical success factor for food security:
The first critical success factor to turn around the socioeconomic malaise in Nigeria, tackling insecurity. Otherwise, any other initiative will be a ‘flash in the pan’. The northern part of Nigeria is the food basket of the nation and is arguably some part of the West African sub-region. Therefore, the recent escalation of insecurity around the northwest, north-central, and northeast have drastically reduced food production. Additionally, climate change is impacting, thereby worsening food insecurity. There is the need for quick actions
The recent decision to expand the Nigerian Army from 8 Divisions to 12, by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is a welcome development. Accordingly, Mr. President has approved the recruitment of 28,000 personnel for the Nigerian Army. I commend Mr. President for this action. Indeed, for the past 3 years, some of us have been supporting the request, by the various heads of the armed forces of Nigeria (Military, Police, etc), for increase of more boots on the ground to really fortify, the capacity of the armed forces to effectively sustain the war against the raging multidimensional insecurity and terrorism in Nigeria.
Insecurity, largely across northern Nigeria is spreading with more devastating consequences. In the past two months, the terrorist attacks on communities in Borno, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Oyo, Plateau, and Benue States are escalating. Mass abductions, mass killings, rapes, burning down of entire villages, farmlands, and grains silos (reserves) have resulted in the exodus of people from their villages or communities, as they try to flee the onslaught of terrorists. In the past two months over 25 villages or communities have been abandoned by the people, or sacked by the terrorists. These are agrarian communities that are critical to Nigeria’s food production capacity. Unless our communities and villages are safe, we face imminent food scarcity by the 4th quarter of this year which is a key harvest period, and this will have devastating consequences on the already dire situation that we are facing in this Country.
Consequently, most farmers have not been able to go to their farms due to kidnappings, banditry, and other forms of terrorism. And when those farmers risk going the their farms, they pay four or five types of taxes/levies, i.e. local government levies, state government levies, federal government levies, and levies they pay to various terrorists/ bandits, kidnappers or other terrorists. We therefore, cannot expect those farmers/up-takers to sell the products at a ‘reasonable’ price’ without considering their cost of production and the dangers they face.
In terms of production, power is not available, people have to generate power by through other means, at high costs (e.g. Diesel), so that they can produce goods or provide services. The government should be practical and pragmatic in addressing the key drivers of production in the economy, so that we can turn around the rising cost of living.
Impacts of climate change:
In the first quarter of this year, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NiHSA), and Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMET), have released the Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) for 2026, and the Probable Flash Flood Risk Map, respectively. The 2026 flood risk will impact 33 out of 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Approximately 4.2 million hectares of farmland/cropland are at risk (highest risk period is October to November). Over 30,707 communities have been placed at risk (highest risk period is from July to September).
Moreover, the 2026 rainy season came a bit late year, especially in northern Nigeria which is largely agrarian. As the rainy season settles in, there are major concerns of the projections of poor yield this year due to the late start of the rain, excessive heat, floods, and crops diseases due to global warming. The projections are already becoming realities especially as the rainy season started late in the northern part of Nigeria.
Therefore, I wish to, remind the governments (at federal and state levels), citizens, and residents of the importance of our individual and collective preparedness to effectively respond to crises and disaster warnings. This is so that we can efficiently and effectively mitigate the impact of such force majeures, which aligns with Pillar 4 (‘Preparedness to respond to warnings) of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk ReductionUNDRR’s Action Plan, on the early warning on disasters.
The devastating impacts of rising food inflation:
Of all the inflationary trends, federal and state governments should focus on food inflation as the key microeconomics performance indicator for this economy, and a driver for economic turnaround. In my view, food security is the economic ‘shock absorber’ for the masses, and a catalyst for economic diversification. Food inflation should attract our attention more than headline inflation, and the core inflation. The cost of production and prices of all food items have more than doubled their costs in the past 8 months. The prices of food items will further increase, because food supply reduces during rainy seasons. Things are so bad that now a tuber of yam is cut into 2 or 3 portions and retailed. In some part of northern Nigeria, multidimensionally poor families and individuals are beginning to eat grasses. Dustbins are now becoming scarce of food remnants. Human beings are beginning to compete with animals for plants that hitherto human beings only feed animals. Things are really getting uglier.
In addition to the potential low production/ yields due to insecurity and climate change, Nigeria has exhausted its strategic grains reserves without replenishing them. Therefore, disaster is looming because potentially, by the 4th quarter of this year, the agricultural yields will not be enough to meet up with rising local demand. It is important to note that food production drives the economy in terms of food security and raw materials for critical production sectors including medicine, pharmacy, textiles, etc.
Food security is critical to economic recovery:
There is a nexus between food insecurity and health, education, and poverty. Because the agriculture value chain produces not just food, but raw materials for industries, raw materials for medicine, and healthcare. Food insecurity will also increase the rate of malnutrition in some parts of Nigeria, especially the northern region where we have the highest number of multidimensionally poor Nigerians constituting about 70%. In addition, because of malnutrition and increased infant mortality, there is already a prevalence of hunger and poverty.
Therefore, there is an urgent need to deal with the factors that drive inflation i.e. cost of production, availability of the products (e.g. food, or other goods and services), cost of logistics, cost of storage, availability and cost of power (electricity), insecurity, etc.
One of the key interventions that Mr. President provided in 2024, was the release of over 24,000 tonnes of grains, which was released and shared to the poor people. But it is important for us to note that we have practically depleted our national strategic reserves. So, I expect that, going forward, within the entire national intervention framework, we will have plans to replenish the strategic grain reserves as quickly as possible, because the strategic grain reserves are the last lines of defense and must be available at all times. Otherwise in the next 5 to 6 months during the rainy seasons, naturally there are food shortages during the rainy seasons even without the issues of insecurity, global warming, and the depleted strategic grain reserves.
Roles of States and Local Governments:
The importance of the roles of the states and local governments to improve our Agricultural value chain and its socioeconomic contributions cannot be over-emphasized. Apart from the national agriculture sectoral reform strategy, State Governors, and state assemblies need to do more in crafting their various Agriculture reform strategies that will key into the overarching national development plan while taking into cognizance their peculiarities with a view to harnessing all their agricultural resources in the states for better socioeconomic impacts -short to long term.
More than the federal government, the state governments have a more direct and tangential role to play in alleviating the lives of their people. Going forward there should be more attention from the people on the state governors, and demand for good governance accountability and performance. The coming months will be key indicators.