When disease hits the supply chain: Why egg prices could rise soon

Filipino households purchase eggs, considered the cheapest source of protein, as it does not cost as much as pork or chicken. Whether it is paired with rice or eaten as boiled, eggs are filling and can stave off hunger, which is why it is a popular food item in the Philippines. That is why the recent pronouncement of poultry farmers and suppliers that eggs could become expensive due to disease outbreaks is a cause for concernIn the coming weeks, Philippine Egg Board Association (PEBA) warned that retail price of eggs could go up following spikes in farmgate prices. The group attributed this to poultry disease outbreaks, such as infectious laryngotracheitis (ILT), inclusion body hepatitis (IBH), and low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI). These diseases, PEBA said, is compounding the production issues confronting the layer industry.

This development shows that animal diseases have now become a significant contributor to consumer prices and inflation. Apart from poultry diseases, the Philippines continues to grapple with African swine fever (ASF) which has killed thousands of hogs and made pork prices more expensive. Despite the disruptions caused by these diseases to the agricultural value chain and their impact on the economy, the country is still far from finding viable solutions to stopping them on their tracks.

The inability of the Philippines to minimize the threat of the scourge that is animal diseases should prompt policymakers to revisit their response and plug the gaps in the government’s animal disease surveillance system. The government’s plan may look good on paper but the fact that these outbreaks continue to happen means there are deficiencies that must be immediately addressed. What is happening on the ground proves that the plan is not yielding the results that the government, the private sector and consumers want to see.

Citing data from the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) noted that 65 barangays in 41 cities/municipalities of 20 provinces reported having active ASF cases as of August 7. In Negros, new ASF cases were reported in Siaton, Amlan, Tanjay City, Zamboanguita, and Pamplona. In Mindanao, FAO said a large number of pig deaths have been reported in villages such as San Roque, Tumaga, Culianan, Manicahan, Curuan, Vitali and Capisan involving mostly backyard raisers.

As for avian influenza, data available on the website of the attached agency of the Department of Agriculture showed that six barangays have ongoing bird flu cases as of August 14. Chicken and ducks were affected by the outbreak of bird flu subtype H5N1, which first emerged in 1996. The World Health Organization noted that since 2020, a variant of these viruses belonging to the H5 clade 2.3.4.4b has led to an unprecedented number of deaths in wild birds and poultry in many countries in Africa, Asia and Europe.

At this point, the Philippines is fortunate because it has not had to deal with price surges seen in the United States where the price of eggs peaked at more than $6 per dozen, equivalent to more than P300, in March 2025. The unprecedented increase in US egg prices was attributed to massive outbreaks of bird flu in major-producing states. While the US experience may seem far-fetched for the Philippines, it would do well for stakeholders to remember that it takes just one instance of mishandling sick animals for animal diseases to again devastate major livestock producers in the country.

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