The hue and cry from former Vice President Atiku Abubakar over oil subsidy should not, ordinarily, have been a source of hubbub in the land. But for political compulsion, the presidential flagbearer of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has been clutching at any whim or platform to throw dirt at his opponent and president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
In what is a theatre of rigmaroles, the Atiku team said their leader was for the restoration of oil subsidies until he was not for it and then he was for it. A section of the media developed a sort of amnesia about his flip-flops and spun it as the man doubling down. A candidate that cannot say yea or nay but yea and nay only reflect a man without categorical reflections. It is all fair to disagree with a government policy. It is also right to do so, even if contrarian, in a political campaign season.
What a candidate should not do is to appeal to cheap populism because that is a marker of a lack of principle, as the ADC candidate has done. A candidate should also exercise rigour in advancing his position. Atiku Abubakar has not done so in his call for the restoration of subsidy.
Again, the same Atiku Abubakar has not come to terms with his earlier stand that he had called for the removal of fuel subsidy. He even tried, with a whiff of opportunism, to own the narrative for the removal of the subsidy. He tried to cast himself as the first to throw up the debate, as though others in the political society are no more than copycats. Yet, he is saying he can come back to his vomit and he is doing so with an adventurer’s bravado.
This sort of pharisaic impunity is not worthy of a debate for the 2027 campaign. He should not banalise the political atmosphere as he has done by claiming that the president is 90 years old, that his name is not Adekunle and that he should open the borders.
He has also accused the government of restoring the subsidy through the back door with petroleum receipts and other measures. When such charges are made, they should be backed by evidence and documents. There is a certain desperation in brandishing ideas just for effect.
His team first said he would restore it and remove it, or restore it and recalibrate its implementation. In no way has he addressed the psycho-economics and the question of time. How would he handle the shock of the reversal?
If the prices of goods and services jumped because of the shock of the removal of oil subsidy, does he expect the prices of food and other essentials to drop precipitously once the subsidy is restored? He has not understood the need to probe how economies respond to sudden change in economic policies even if they are intended to arouse mass glee.
For instance, the states have been receiving huge increase in their monthly allocations, and they have embarked on some huge infrastructure programmes. Does it mean they would have to go back into debt in order to pursue them? For instance, Kaduna State has rolled out programmes of welfare for many citizens and periodic money goes to them for businesses. Would that have to stop?
Delta State announced that it had paid off its debts. Should they return to the red? Osun State came to light during the last gubernatorial election as a state that could not pay salaries because its allocation was N4 billion a month. Now it is four times that amount with N16 billion. Should they return to the old times of beggarly budgeting?
Atiku Abubakar has not focused attention on states. State governors can do more with the gargantuan rise in their fortunes. But the former vice president has not shown any interest in that, and for two reasons. One, he does not want to be at odds or in an open brawl with state executives because he hopes they may help him in the upcoming elections.
Two, his interest is not the states but the president. But the president and his team have often reminded him and his critics of the monthly trillions of naira that have been disbursed to the states since he became the country’s first citizen in 2023.
Some of the challenges with prices have been engendered by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the war between the United States and Iran. This is a global problem but the ADC point man is ignoring the facts and exploiting it for political reasons. Fuel prices had started a downward trend before the gulf exploded with bombs and deaths.
He has not also said anything of substance on how to handle the Dangote Refinery and the other smaller ones. They are not in the country for charity, and they would sell fuel according to market forces. Is he going to pay the refineries to bring down the prices or he is going to browbeat them? If the former, he would be helping a billionaire to get richer at the expense of the economy. If the latter, he will force the refineries to shut down.
We cannot turn our eyes away from the reality that hardship has resulted from the removal of the subsidies. But all candidates accepted the historical necessity of removing the subsidy because the nation could no longer afford the costs. About N30 trillion in ways and means implied a nation feeding on its own skin. Those debts are now gone as well as the $7 billion owed to airlines that almost shut down our international skies. It is a measure of the discipline and acumen that the president has applied to an economy running out of breath.
Yet more needs to be done to bring succour to the people. We have seen the effort to have food banks and food hubs in parts of the country. This should be intensified. The first lady has spent billions of naira to make things easier for the vulnerable across the country.
The NELFUND project has been praised across the country and university students have raved over it. The Federal Government reported about N600 billion in cash transfers that have benefitted the poor. It has also begun the investment drive known as the anchor borrowers’ programme. The promise to bring down fuel prices by October via the CNG project should be pursued with religious zeal.
The removal of fuel subsidy has become a fait accompli, and the former vice president is only bringing cynical politics into it.