When Kenya’s Agriculture Cabinet Secretary, Mutahi Kagwe, announced that Nairobi would facilitate the importation of up to 25 million bags of maize to close a looming food gap, the news was met with cautious optimism across the border in Uganda.
For Uganda, East Africa’s traditional grain basket, every drought in Kenya has historically meant brisk business for farmers, aggregators, and cross-border traders. This season, however, the scramble has come faster, deeper, and with a more painful domestic aftershock: a sharp rise in the prices of maize, flour, and animal feed on the local market.
Kenya, which consumes between 70 million and 75 million 90-kilogramme bags of maize annually, is staring at a major deficit following a prolonged drought in its core maize belts. Officials say crop failure in the North Rift, Laikipia, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, and Trans Nzoia has wiped out thousands of hectares. In Trans Nzoia alone, about 20,000 hectares were destroyed-roughly 20 percent of the county’s production-while Uasin Gishu is projecting a 60 percent drop.
The shortfall of about 25 million bags represents more than a third of Kenya’s annual consumption.
“It is the private sector that will purchase the maize. The money does not come from the government exchequer,” CS Kagwe told The Nation, stressing that the government itself will not be importing, but will instead open normal commercial channels for private traders while continuing to buy through the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) to top up strategic reserves.
The Kenyan government targeted two million bags for its National Strategic Food Reserve but received just 180,000 bags because farmers preferred private millers, who offered KSh 5,400 per bag against the Board’s KSh 4,000. That domestic price war is now being exported to Uganda.
The Uganda rush
Within days of the announcement, Kenyan buyers intensified incursions into eastern Uganda-Bugiri, Iganga, Mbale, and Kapchorwa-as well as central regions including Mubende, Mityana, and Nakaseke. Unlike previous seasons, where trade flowed through licensed aggregators in Busia and Malaba, buyers are now driving trucks deep into villages with cash in hand.
That purchasing model is worrying established Ugandan dealers.
Mr. Henry Musisi, Managing Director of the Grain Council of Uganda (GCU), welcomed the concept of an organized arrangement to address Kenya’s drought-induced deficit. However, he expressed concern over current practices: “If only this could be followed to allow Ugandan entities like the GCU to supply the grain, rather than having Kenyan traders buy directly from farmers deep in the villages. This bypasses the established value chain and compromises quality.”
According to the Council, when Kenyan traders buy directly from smallholders, they bypass drying, cleaning, grading, and aflatoxin-testing facilities that local members have invested in. The result is grain that may meet weight criteria but fails quality standards, undermining Uganda’s long-term competitiveness and exposing consumers in both countries to health risks.
GCU estimates that Uganda has an exportable surplus of over one million metric tonnes of maize this season-enough to contribute significantly to Kenya’s deficit if trade is properly structured.
For now, the trade remains informal and frenzied, driving up domestic prices.
Traders in Kampala’s Kisenyi and Nakawa markets reported that a 100kg bag of dry maize grain, which traded at Shs 105,000 to Shs 125,000 in January, now costs Shs 135,000 to Shs 150,000. In Mbale and Busia, farm-gate prices have jumped from Shs 900 to Shs 1,400 per kilogramme. Posho (maize flour), which averaged Shs 2,200 per kilogramme in December, now retails at Shs 2,800 to Shs 3,200 across most Kampala suburbs.
Ripple effect on feed millers
Poultry and livestock feed millers are feeling the pressure even more acutely, as maize makes up 60 percent of feed formulations. Representatives from the poultry sector note that feed prices have risen by 18 percent over the past month, forcing smallholder farmers to reduce flock sizes.
Why Ugandans are paying more
Analysts say Uganda’s price hike stems not just from the volume of grain leaving the country, but from who is buying and at what rate.
Aga Sekalala Jr., an industry leader representing feed millers and poultry breeders, noted: “Kenyan millers have deeper pockets and are willing to pay above local market prices to secure supplies, which in turn sets a higher price floor for Ugandan millers.”
Furthermore, Kenya’s import strategy extends beyond East Africa. Official data shows maize imports into Kenya rose 51.4 percent in 2025 to 468,109 metric tonnes, driven by a duty-free window for yellow maize destined for feed manufacturers. Much of that volume originated from Zambia-which committed up to one million 90kg bags to Kenya-and international markets.
Regional experts note that Kenyan millers often buy affordable Ugandan and Tanzanian grain at harvest, pushing up local prices. However, if regional prices climb too high, millers lobby Nairobi to allow duty-free imports from global markets where maize is cheaper, leaving Ugandan sellers holding higher-priced stock.
Tanzania remains Kenya’s largest regional supplier, accounting for 152,880 metric tonnes (57 percent of regional trade) in the last quarter, followed by Uganda with 117,390 metric tonnes, according to trade data. These volumes were supported by seasonal Tanzanian exports entering the market amid heightened Kenyan demand.
For Uganda, this creates multi-directional pressure. In Busia, traders report that Tanzanian trucks are transiting through Uganda to reach Kenya, further tightening logistics and raising truck rental costs.
An organised alternative
GCU’s Musisi maintains that the solution lies in replacing informal open-border buying with structured trade.
Under the Council’s proposal, Kenya would publish the exact specifications and volumes required for its strategic reserves, allowing certified East African suppliers to bid. Uganda would then aggregate grain through its 40 certified warehouses, ensure strict quality control, and export through a single streamlined window.
“An organized arrangement would protect farmers, safeguard consumers, and maintain quality,” Musisi said. “What we have right now is an unregulated rush that primarily benefits middlemen.”