The meeting that took place four days ago, on Monday, August 31, 2026, by the group called G100, which was actually a culmination of initiations of these conversations as another attempt to organise a coalition of Nigerian opposition political parties.
This is after the failed attempt in Ibadan, Oyo State some months ago. The G100 is attempting to galvanise the possibility of the emergence of a single candidate be supported by the coalition of opposition political parties to contest against and win President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.
However, attempts to organise a political opposition coalition consensus started a least one year ago. In my view, the process of forming a solid coalition should have been started immediately at the beginning of President Tinubu’s administration in 2023. This would have given the opposition political parties two clear years ahead to organise, galvanise, convince, and negotiate a strong, vibrant and effective opposition political party and leadership. But, as of today, less than four months to the 2027 presidential and general elections in Nigeria, the opposition politicians are unable to unite to produce a single opposition presidential candidate that is supported by a coalition.
Indeed, the existence of a formidable opposition political is a critical success factor in any democracy. One-and-a-half year ago in the March 21, 2025 edition of this column titled, ‘Opposition leaders should stop wishing away Tinubu’, I raised the issue of the need for a virile and effective opposition political party and leadership, to keep the administration of President Tinubu on check, as should be the tradition in a democracy. I have also reiterated the opposition political parties in three other essays and various other discussions in the past three years since the beginning of this administration. I have variously alerted the opposition to start envisioning, aligning, organising, structuring, and mobilising early enough.. But they never did.
In the absence of a formidable opposition political party, the ruling political party will run roughshod, unperturbed, and a country in this situation runs the risk of having the incumbent President, Governors, and other political leaders with absolute power. And absolute power corrupts absolutely! As it is today in Nigeria, the All Progressives Congress (APC), has the overwhelming majority in the executive and the legislature.
There is currently there is no strong, cohesive, coherent and loud opposition pressure, constructive criticisms and engagements. Consequently, there is currently no solid and effective political competition that will keep the ruling party and political leadership in Nigeria on its toes. That is what makes incumbent political leaders to deliver their campaign promises and mandates, to ensure that they are re-elected by the people. As it is today, I have a sense of foreboding, not because I have anything personal against the APC, or its leaders; but because they have the APC has the mandate of the people of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and if they don’t deliver, and if there is no veritable opposition political party and leaders that are organised and united with a cohesive force to counter the ruling political party by presenting alternative solutions to give the incumbent a run for their money; then Nigeria is doomed.
Of course, there have been a lot of allegations, and in some cases indications of subterfuge, or pressure by the ruling party to ensure that political opposition does not thrive. But I do not expect the ruling party to actually make it easy for the opposition to remove it from power. I will say with profound respect, that it is impractical for opposition political parties and their leaders to expect the ruling party, whether it is APC or any other political party anywhere in the world, to sit on their hands, and allow the opposition political parties to take over.
Certainly, I not promoting impunity, or any attempt to choke the opposition political parties and their leaders. But, indeed it is the duty of the opposition political parties to do their homework, work hard, organize, unite, mobilize and to have a unanimity of purpose for the people, of Nigeria, and not for themselves. The opposition political parties should have entrenched internal democracy, and to model themselves in ideology and practice, as the credible, suitable, and formidable alternative to a ruling party, in this context – the APC.
But the current situation whereby the various political leaders have their own agendas and they are so recalcitrant in pursuing those agendas, especially at the presidential candidature level is a critical failure factor for them. As of today, None of the front line political leaders is ready to concede to anyone, due to personal ambition, ego, identity politics and other parochial considerations. It appears to me that the opposition political leaders have decided to continue the very unfortunate and untenable fragmented opposition and ambition.
Like I have said variously, to the opposition political parties; united they stand a chance to win against the incumbent, divided they lose! The political permutations and combinations vis-à-vis voters demography, identity politics, etc. clearly shows that the opposition’s best play is to put their differences aside and come together with a view to marshaling their electoral powers and numbers, combine their forces and their strengths, which could give them the chance to win the presidential and general elections. Indeed misalignment of visions and objectives, disparate political ideologies/ missions, identity politics, selfish interests, egos, mutual mistrust by principal actors, and scars of toxic politics will remain the weaknesses of the opposition political parties and their leaders.
With less than four months to elections, the G100 have already lost the element of time. I hear the promoters of the G100, mentioning that they want to do what the APC coalition did to the PDP in 2015, and I will tell them that the scenarios, are entirely different. Therefore, the G100 initiative is a good idea, but wrong timing.
Love them or hate them, President Bola Tinubu, former President, late Muhammadu Buhari, and other key political leaders were able to manage various power blocs, egos and interests, efficiently and effectively when they were in opposition. They played the long game for 15 years losing and trying again, building political structures across Nigeria, building political networks and consolidating, which culminated in the consummation of the merger that birthed the APC which subsequently won the presidential elections in 2015.
If we may recall, by March 2013, two clear years agreed of the 2015 general elections, when the legacy parties have agreed to merge, the APC had taken a clear position on zoning, by zoning the presidency was zoned to northern Nigeria. That is very critical. Secondly, by November 2013, they had in their kitty a total of 16 incumbent governors, including the PDP governors that joined the legacy party governors, like the governors Adams Oshiomole (ACN), Tanko Almakura(CPC), Kashim Shettima (ANPP), Ibrahim Gaidam (ANPP), Rochas Okorocha (APGA), all Governor of South West Nigeria (ACN), and five Governors that defected PDP to APC. In the January, APC and had over 170 incumbent legislators in the Senate end house of representatives at the National Assembly and majority of the members of the state house of assembly in those 16 states.
By 2014, one year before the 2015 general elections, the APC was fully executing its strategy, and its road map to the win the presidential and general elections was clear. And they had already started getting the attention of Nigerians. This is how you run coalition. This is how you run opposition.
The opposition political parties are confused, disillusioned, fighting each other, and living in what I call, the ‘virtual reality’ of winning elections without uniting. You don’t win elections by wishing to do so. You don’t win elections by talking your way, or insult your way into power. In a democracy, political leaders organise themselves, convince the electorate that they have have better solutions, and work to win elections.
As it is today, I repeat, none of the opposition political leaders has the gravitas to muster the constitutionally required numbers and spread to win this election on his own, and that is the bottom line.
My parting words for the opposition political figures; United you stand, divided you fragment your votes and make it easy for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to coast into his second term. The rhetorical question is, ‘Will the opposition political leaders rise above their selfish and/ or parochial interest to actually unite to win President Tinubu?’ Your answers are as good as mine.