EVEN if you have lost your copy of Ernest Hemingway’s The Old Man and the Sea, I bet you still remember that story of man’s struggle in a hostile world. You remember the story of the old fisherman who suffers for 84 gruelling days before catching a marlin, only to end up with its skeleton after a barrage by rampaging sharks. That is the story of the disunited, politically blind and perennially unserious opposition angling to dethrone the All Progressives Congress’ Bola Tinubu in just a few months’ time. I had assumed that these human beings were serious when they held an opposition summit in Ibadan, but they revealed their true character shortly after.
It is true that Tinubu and his government have mounted roadblocks in the path of the opposition – I cannot forget the incident in Abuja when they had to use campaign fliers to fan themselves after ACs and fans were shut off following the depraved antics of a minister – but much of their woes have been self-inflicted. Parading oversized egos, they have thrown out the power of collective bargaining and tactical discipline with which the Tinubu-led opposition routed the then ruling PDP, a shell now parading a ‘presidential candidate.’ Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso and others are not ready to stoop to conquer: they are preparing to cry like the mythical egbere for their lost mat after Tinubu wins before 12 pm on election day, throwing up all sorts of conspiracy theories. I have carefully surveyed the opposition movement and come to the painful conclusion that they are merely wasting time engaging in content creation instead of preparing for a tactical, epic presidential battle in 2027.
If you are a bit familiar with the German-American theorist Hannah Arendt, then you cannot avoid looking at politics as collective action. As Arendt teaches us, power arises when people act together. Surely, a political opposition can’t come to power merely because it has many prominent politicians in its fold. It will acquire power based on its capacity to act collectively. As the Bard of Avon teaches in King Lear: ‘When great ones fall out, the weaker side is with them.’ Consumed by egotism and rivalry, the opposition contenders can only lose out, and lose out in a big way. A Yoruba proverb says it is with collective fingers that one beats his chest, and it is as a whole that a broom kills flies. But the opposition politicians creating disparate, unrealistic paths to the presidency act as sole repositories of wisdom, titillating the ears of their supporters with empty sloganeering.
In case you think I am being unduly harsh, here again are the results of the 2023 presidential election: Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC) – 8,794,726 votes (36.61%) – Winner. Atiku Abubakar (PDP) – 6,984,520 votes (29.07%) – 2nd place. Peter Obi (Labour Party) – 6,101,533 votes (25.40%) – 3rd place. Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) – 1,496,687 votes (6.40%) – 4th place. Total valid votes cast: 24,965,218. From these results, it is clear that the majority of voters who trooped out on election day were resolutely against the APC. The opposition politicians, the same individuals now running disparate campaigns that will end in premium tears, had told Nigerians to vote out Buhari’s party, and Nigerians had listened. So, out of the 24.97 million valid votes cast, the APC only got 8.79 million votes, the smallest margin ever recorded by a ruling party. Ideally, the opposition ought to form the next government. Nigerians had spoken with a loud voice. Alas! The opposition had not banded together like Tinubu and the PDP G-5 did in 2015, and so it happened that the APC that voters revolted against on election day formed the next government.
Now, ahead of 2027, the time-wasters are repeating the same gimmick. They have refused to learn from the Osun State governorship election where Ademola Adeleke of the PDP/Accord Party won with 511,067 votes while Bola Oyebanji of the APC secured 444,815 votes. If certain APC hawks had not frustrated Adeleke’s defection to the APC, that party would have won by a criminally massive landslide. Still, if Tinubu and his party lose Osun in 2027 but get the same kind of margin, they are good to go. Conversely, if all the opposition parties band together and support a single candidate, they will win Osun State.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu was declared president-elect by INEC on 1 March 2023. He will again be declared president in 2027 if the current situation persists. Tinubu will win before 12 pm on election day and the big stumbling block, Atiku Abubakar, whom I voted for in 2019 before the Leah Sharibu case shattered my illusions, will approach the courts and feed SANs, as usual.
Like the whiskey priest struggling with a dog over a bone in Graham Greene’sThe Power and the Glory, highlighting sheer desperation and loss of dignity, the Nigerian opposition politicians have reduced themselves to presidential pretenders. Lacking effective mobilisers, the opposition recalls the lines of W.B. Yeats in The Second Coming: ‘The best lack all conviction, while the worst /Are full of passionate intensity.’ Their postulations have become much like the proverbial tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Says Niccolò Machiavelli in The Prince: ‘He who wishes to be obeyed must know how to command.’ Tell that to Rabiu Kwankwaso. Feeling funky this week, the NDC VP candidate arrogantly asked Atiku to withdraw from the 2027 presidential race. Receiving members of the Fulani Farmers Association in his Abuja residence, Kwankwaso, widely seen by many southerners as a Fulani irredentist and merely being tolerated because he is on a ticket with Peter Obi, delivered this silly sermon: ‘Go to the Wazirin of Adamawa’s house and tell him in Fulani that he needs to focus on his traditional title of Wazirin, given his age and health. If Allah grants us success, we will take good care of him.’
See his mouth like ‘take care of him’. Between him and Atiku, who has proved for decades that he can win opposition presidential primaries no matter the dollar rain, who should take care of the other? Is that how, in Kwankwaso’s red-cap world, leading opposition bigwigs are persuaded to step down? Did the APC’s Tinubu send farmers to people like Godswill Akpabio and others who stepped down for him to clinch the APC ticket in 2023? Why do these opposition politicians keep acting like bewitched brides? Who should treat Atiku like royalty, begging for a concession, if not Kwankwaso?
Evidently, 2027 is no contest. It is sheer force majeure for Kwankwaso and co.
INEC, where is my PVC?
On 26/10/2025, I wrote INEC via [email protected]: ‘Hello Sir/Ma, I made an application for a replacement of my damaged card. I want to know if the cars is ready and when to pick it up. The details are as follows: Application Number: RPL28671872. Application Type: Lost or Damaged PVC Replacement Request. Application Status Application Submitted for Approval (Stage 1 of 2). Applicant Name: AWOLAJA, ABIODUN ADEBAYO. Email: [email protected]. State: OYO. Local Government: IBADAN SOUTH WEST. Registration Area/Ward WARD 9 SW8 (1). ‘
Till today, I haven’t got a reply. When I applied for Damaged PVC Replacement, though, INEC on 02/09/2025, INEC assigned me the reference no RPL28671872. Okay oo.