In less than six months in power, the Bhumjaithai Party-led government has faced numerous political and economic challenges.
Public pressure is increasing on the Election Commission (EC) to probe alleged collusion in the 2024 Senate election. The EC is scheduled to decide on Monday whether to prosecute those accused in this case.
Discontent has led to demonstrations by several political groups, forcing the government to reassess its current course.
In parliament, a no-confidence debate is expected to take place soon, while persistent rumours of political conflicts continue to fuel speculation that the current administration could face significant changes in the near future.
GROWING UNEASE
Former finance minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala said on the economic front, the government has made little progress, while social problems and public uncertainty have grown, citing the controversy surrounding alleged collusion in the Senate election as an example.
If the allegations of collusion are true and a political party was involved, but the matter is not handled according to the legal process, it would damage the country and leave Thais with little hope, he said.
The EC should perform its legal duties and submit the names of individuals implicated in the collusion allegations to the court for consideration, allowing them to defend themselves in court, said Mr Thirachai.
“If we follow the legal process, I believe the economy will begin to recover and confidence will return. If not, we will see large businesses take more of their investment out of the country and look overseas,” he noted.
Aat Pisanwanich, a lecturer at Rangsit University’s Faculty of Economics, said he believes people are beginning to tire of the government.
“If a large number of people join veteran activist and media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul’s latest movement, it would be a loud signal about the public mood to the government,” he said.
The elevated cost of living is a major problem, but the pattern in addressing it remains the same for decades, said Mr Aat.
“This is how we live across different eras and different governments. We keep complaining that the economy is not doing well,” he said.
“This is happening because the economic structure favours large businesses with capital, competitive capabilities, and the financial resources to adapt, while the government has not taken serious action to address corruption.”
Although investment inflows tallied record highs, the country’s unequal economic structure favours groups with large capital that control around 70% of the economy, meaning they reap most of the benefits, noted Mr Aat.
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which account for roughly 30% of the economy but provide a larger share of employment, receive relatively little benefit and are gradually disappearing, he said.
For example, groups with large capital are investing in electric vehicle (EV) factories and data centres, which includes foreign investment, but the majority of Thais do not benefit from this investment, said Mr Aat.
As a result, he said the government’s goal of transforming Thailand into a high-income economy within 12 years is unlikely.
“Escaping the middle-income trap is proving impossible for Thailand. Becoming a high-income country may be possible, but whose income are we talking about when foreign products flood the domestic market?” said Mr Aat.
The government should urgently introduce policies to promote domestic production of goods as substitutes for imports in order to support SMEs, he said.
In two years, Vietnam’s GDP is likely to overtake Thailand’s GDP. Vietnam’s economy grew by 8% last year and is expected to expand by 8.2% this year, while Thailand’s growth is forecast at 2%.
Vietnam has advantages over Thailand in several areas, including a larger labour force, faster improvements in worker skills, and smarter students, noted Mr Aat.
As a result, substantial investment funds are flowing into Vietnam, with Japanese firms recently investing in EV production there.
“It is possible in the future, we may have to buy Toyota EVs made in Vietnam,” he said.
KEY CONCERN
Asadej Kongsiri, president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), said political stability is a major factor for foreign investors.
During the annual Thailand Focus 2026 seminar hosted by the SET, discussions with foreign investors revealed political stability and certainty ranked among their top concerns, alongside the performance of listed companies.
Political stability is important because it affects the government’s ability to implement policies and strategies for national development and investment. Any disruption to the political process could delay those plans and undermine foreign investor confidence, he said.
“Political uncertainty could become noise for the Thai stock market,” Mr Asadej said.
However, he said he believes Thailand’s political situation remains relatively stable in the short term and is unlikely to be a major concern for foreign investors.
Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, executive vice-president of Asia Plus Securities, said if several events expected to be decided this month turn out to be negative and it affects government stability, the market could come under pressure.
Wikij Tirawannarat, senior vice-president of Bualuang Securities, said the main political issue investors are watching is the ruling slated for Sept 28 on whether barcodes and QR codes printed on ballots for the Feb 8 general election breached constitutional protections for secret voting.
Poonyawat Sreesing, senior economist at Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Center, said investors and executives are monitoring political developments, especially the two high-profile cases scheduled to have rulings this month.
However, he said the political risks have already been priced in and the rulings, regardless of the outcome, are unlikely to have a significant impact on political stability.
“The country experienced such political episodes in the past. This month’s developments might hurt market sentiment, but it is unlikely to cause political instability,” Mr Poonyawat told the Bangkok Post.
SERIOUS EFFORT
The government could restore public confidence in its transparency and governance if it engages in more serious efforts with the private sector to combat corruption, said Kriengkrai Thiennukul, honorary chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries.
Recent allegations have fuelled public concerns over accountability in government, including claims that numerous officials were involved in a recruitment examination fraud scheme in local administrative organisations, as well as accusations that senior members of the Bhumjaithai Party played a role in manipulating the 2024 Senate selection process.
“If the government is genuinely committed to pursuing a zero-corruption agenda together with the private sector, the situation would likely improve,” Mr Kriengkrai said.
He was referring to the “Zero Corruption” campaign initiated before the formation of the government. The initiative was a response to what business groups viewed as a worsening corruption problem that had spread throughout state agencies and organisations, creating unnecessary costs for businesses.
The public sector has responded to anti-corruption efforts in the past, said Mr Kriengkrai, but meaningful progress would require stronger determination and political courage.
“The government appears willing to cooperate, but I believe it can do much more. Progress thus far is not enough to create a clear picture of success,” he said.
“Addressing this issue requires substantial effort, courage and sacrifice.”
Serious anti-corruption measures would inevitably affect individuals and networks that benefit from existing practices, noted Mr Kriengkrai.
“Such reforms will impact people who have long profited from the system, and may disrupt sources of income that sustain entire patronage networks,” he said.
“But they are necessary for the country’s long-term interests and will ultimately benefit everyone. They will improve Thailand’s image and strengthen our competitiveness.”
Without decisive action, Thailand risks remaining trapped in a cycle of corruption that continues to intensify, noted Mr Kriengkrai.
Corruption imposes significant costs on businesses, particularly in dealings with government agencies, he said. Obtaining licences and permits often requires navigating lengthy bureaucratic procedures involving multiple stages.
“At every agency and every desk, businesses are expected to provide what is commonly called oil money,” said Mr Kriengkrai.
The term refers to unofficial payments, facilitation fees or gifts intended to speed up administrative processes.
Such practices place Thai entrepreneurs at a disadvantage from the outset and have become deeply embedded across government agencies, where many licensing procedures depend heavily on officials’ discretion, he said.
In addition, Mr Kriengkrai criticised Thailand’s regulatory framework, saying the country has an excessive number of laws and regulations, many of which overlap and grant broad discretionary powers to officials.
Thailand has yet to fully embrace the principles of good governance and the rule of law, he noted.
There is a distinction between a system in which laws serve as an impartial framework governing all parties equally, and one in which laws are used primarily as instruments of control by those in power.
The latter can lead to questions about transparency, fairness and justice, undermining public trust in government institutions, said Mr Kriengkrai.
RECOVER OUR EDGE
William Heinecke, founder and chairman of SET-listed Minor International, said the government needs to focus on growth as Thailand has suffered from weak economic expansion for almost a decade.
“Thai growth is in the low single digits, whereas Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have all been growing quickly in the high single digits,” said Mr Heinecke.
The widening competitiveness gap is increasingly evident in tourism, with Malaysia now attracting more tourists than Thailand, underscoring the need for us to regain our edge, he said.
“We have lost our edge, so we have to work harder to recover it,” said Mr Heinecke, who has steered Minor through numerous political, economic and transition cycles.
Minor’s global footprint provides some protection against weak domestic growth, as the company operates across Europe, the US, the Middle East and Asia.
“We are not solely dependent on Thailand. We can survive weak growth in Thailand, but my hope and my commitment is to try to help the nation to grow faster,” he said.
The government should focus on measures to improve Thai competitiveness, particularly as tourism remains one of the country’s main economic drivers, said Mr Heinecke.
For example, the continued closure of the Thai-Cambodian border is affecting Thai businesses and tourism, as well as making travel between the two countries more difficult, he noted.
“Tourism is still an economic driver for Thailand, so the authorities should pay more attention to the sector,” said Mr Heinecke.
Pornarit Chounchaisit, president of the Thai Real Estate Association, said demonstrations and a no-confidence debate were unlikely to affect government stability, as coalition parties are expected to maintain a unified voting position.
“Thai politics remains stable, but what concerns me is the economic slowdown caused by global economic problems. Investor and business confidence has disappeared, making sentiment worse,” Mr Pornarit said, adding geopolitical conflicts remain unresolved and are pushing up production costs.
With higher costs and static income levels, prolonged geopolitical uncertainty could further weaken economic sentiment in Thailand, he noted.
BELOW EXPECTATIONS
Thaniwan Kulmongkol, president of the Restaurant Association, said the government has yet to demonstrate a clear sense of urgency in its work, warning that voters not only have the power to elect a government, but also the power to bring it down.
Looking back to the first Anutin Charnvirakul cabinet from late 2025 to early 2026, she said the Bhumjaithai-led government communicated a strong sense of urgency in addressing the country’s problems.
Nearly six months after the February election, Mrs Thaniwan said while the government may consider this a short period, many people see it as a significant chunk of time.
So far, there have been few indications to give people confidence in the government’s performance, she noted.
In fact, the only tangible achievement to date has been the “Thai Chuay Thai Plus” co-payment scheme, said Mrs Thaniwan.
The scheme helped to ease public opposition to the government, benefiting both consumers and participating retailers.
She said the Commerce Ministry has two main responsibilities: domestic and international affairs. The ministry has been working to expand trade and promote commercial ties with other countries, though such efforts take time before they bear fruit, said Mrs Thaniwan.
However, the ministry’s domestic efforts have yet to make an impact on the grassroots economy or people’s daily lives, she noted. For example, the prices of key raw materials and consumer goods, including rice and cooking oil, remain high.
Mrs Thaniwan said the Department of Internal Trade has not done enough to control these costs.