We work incredibly hard to earn foreign exchange through tea, coffee, horticulture and tourism. Then we send a huge amount of it straight back out of the country to buy the fuel that powers our economy. Hence, our biggest export may actually be foreign exchange.
In 2025, Kenya imported about 5.5 million tonnes of petroleum products, valued roughly Sh511 billion, according to a survey by KNBS’s 2026 Economic Survey.
From the same survey, tea exports earned roughly Sh187 billion, cut flowers Sh103 billion, vegetables and fruits Sh100 billion, and unroasted coffee roughly Sh52 billion. Those four alone total about Sh442 billion. Petroleum imports? Sh511 billion. Read that again.
We spent more on imported petroleum than tea, flowers, fruits, vegetables and coffee earned for us combined. Perhaps Kenya’s largest export isn’t tea. It’s foreign exchange. And the fuel tank is one of our biggest collection points.
That changes the electric mobility conversation completely. Because every electric kilometre is potentially one less kilometre powered by imported petroleum but every electric vehicle is potentially less demand for imported fuel. And because our electricity is predominantly renewable, we can substitute an imported energy commodity with something we can generate domestically.
Ethiopia is getting much of the attention when it comes to electric vehicles in Africa, and rightly so but before we copy Ethiopia’s policies, we should understand why its circumstances are fundamentally different from ours.
First, electricity. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has given Ethiopia access to enormous quantities of relatively cheap renewable electricity.
Second, foreign exchange. Ethiopia has struggled with hard-currency availability for years. Import financing and the repatriation of foreign currency are longstanding business challenges.
Third, fuel. When foreign exchange is scarce, imported petroleum becomes a strategic vulnerability. Fuel shortages and those infamous queues at petrol stations are not just transport problems; they are an economic signal. If you have abundant domestic electricity but struggle to secure imported petroleum, electrification starts looking less like a climate policy and more like common sense.
Fourth, the vehicle market. Ethiopia is a left-hand-drive market. That gives it access to a completely different pool of vehicles from China, Europe and the US, including relatively young used vehicles. Rwanda has a similar advantage. Kenya does not.
Kenya drives on the left, and our traditional used-vehicle supply chain is overwhelmingly Japanese. Japan has been very good to Kenya. But there is a problem.
Japanese Original Equipment Manufacturers have historically been much more heavily invested in hybrids and other technologies than pure battery-electric vehicles. That means the supply of affordable used Japanese EVs available to Kenya remains relatively limited.
It is important to note that we import roughly 100,000 used vehicles every year compared to about 12,000 vehicles assembled in the country.
So, in reality, Kenya is a used-vehicle importing market that happens to have an assembly industry. That distinction becomes important when we start talking about the future because the global automotive industry is quickly changing underneath us and it is changing very.
Why would a global EV manufacturer establish a major manufacturing operation in Kenya when our consumers overwhelmingly buy used vehicles? Why would somebody invest heavily in charging infrastructure when a significant part of the market is effectively waiting for today’s EV to become an eight-year-old import? That isn’t criticism. It is simply the market reality and industrial policy that ignores market reality is usually just expensive optimism.
We should ask ourselves: What can Kenya do exceptionally well in the new electric-mobility value chain? My answer is simple: Electricity. Kenya’s grid is already predominantly renewable that is; geothermal, hydro, wind and solar.
So what should Kenya actually do? First, we should aggressively attract EV manufacturers and assemblers because we need vehicles in the market. Second, create demand through financing, leasing, fleet conversion, targeted incentives and tax policy, whatever works.
Third, build charging infrastructure and do it ahead of demand where it is commercially sensible. Fourth, build the ecosystem that is maintenance, battery services, software, energy management, fleet management, components, recycling and data.
Lastly, exploit the renewable-energy advantage. If we can electrify transport, reduce petroleum imports and retain foreign exchange, we can use that economic benefit to expand our renewable-energy system further. Then use that cheap, clean electricity for far more than transport in agriculture, manufacturing, mineral processing, cold storage, data centres and industrial parks. That is where the real opportunity lies.
Kenya has something different. A predominantly renewable grid, a sophisticated services economy, an entrepreneurial population and a demonstrated ability to leapfrog technology when the economics make sense.